Fred Thompson, straggling behind the Republican pack as he has been in recent weeks, has not attracted as much negative attention from the liberal crowd as the other, more popular candidates.  But while he’s still ing 4th place, Thompson is polling reasonably well in South Carolina with 16% of the vote.  That’s enough to get him the attention - and the resulting barbs - of today’s #1 SIM (Self-important Mudslinger), Michael Gerson of the Washington Post.

Gerson’s thesis:  Fred Thompson is obviously a morally inferior person and unfit to be president because Thompson does not place the same importance on funding AIDS mitigation in Africa as he does.

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Via Hot Air comes the following video (below the fold): Senator Fred Thompson has, according to his supporters finally, gone after Senator for Arizona John McCain. As AP points out, “[i]t would have been more effective if he’d gone after him individually instead of lumping him in with Huck but the race being what it is in South Carolina, he doesn’t have much choice. Any attack on one benefits the other so he’s forced to attack both.” (more…)

Human Events, the conservative organization, has endorsed Senator Fred Thompson for the Republican nomination and the presidency.

The greatly respected organization explains:

Since World War II, America has not had a presidential election at a time when the stakes were higher. Conservatives have to win this election, and to do so, we have to identify a candidate around whom we all can rally. (more…)

Fox News says that John McCain is the winner in New Hampshire’s Republican primary as he’s leading by a comfortable 9 6 point margin with 29% 73% of the state’s precincts reporting.

This makes the race for the GOP’s nomination that much more interesting with Mitt Romney barely ahead of Mike Huckabee in Michigan next week and Huckabee expected to come in ahead of McCain in South Carolina soon after.

Will McCain get a boost from New Hampshire? (more…)

Whether you believe that Fred Thompson lacks energy or not (to win the nomination) you’ve got to respect this:

Fred Thompson today blasted the media for propagating a false rumor about his impending withdrawal, while reinforcing the role he has created for himself as the candidate in this race who does not suffer unwelcome questions gladly. (more…)

Someone who works for Fred Thompson told me that the report at Politico “shocked” him and that he had not “heard any rumors about dropping out after Iowa.”

The source went on to say that they’re putting much time and attention in doing well in Wyoming and South Carolina.

As someone famous once said, accounts of my death have greatly been exaggerated (paraphrasing here).

It seems that Thompson isn’t thinking about getting out of the race after Iowa, which I consider to be good news for American conservatives.

For whatever it is worth, here are some endorsements on the eve of the Iowa Caucuses:

For Republicans: Fred Thompson

For Democrats: Barack Obama

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The Politico has a report up saying that if Fred Thompson doesn’t do well in Iowa, he’ll drop out of the race.

There’s been some speculation about this in the blogosphere, but it seems that the Politico was able to talk to “several Republican officials close to Thompson” who confirmed the rumors.

If he doesn’t do reasonably well in Iowa, he’ll drop out - according to the Politico and these anonymous sources - before January 8 (primary of New Hampshire) . (more…)

Glenn Reynolds wonders whether Fred Thompson is “too sane to be president.” His answer: “Quite possibly.”

The professor explains: “Thompson is running the kind of campaign — substantive, policy-laden, not based on gimmicks or sound-bites — that pundits and journalists say they want, but he’s getting no credit for it from the people who claim that’s what they want. It’s like in Tootsie when Dustin Hoffman tries doing the things he’s heard women say they want from men, only to discover that they don’t really want those things at all.” (more…)

Fred Thompson has started his last major offensive. When he got into the race, many analysts, bloggers, experts and conservatives (some of whom are all in one) expected him to unite the Republican Party instantly. They thought that he would the best choice for conservatives and that he would instantly be the frontrunner.

Sadly for Thompson, however, things went slightly differently. He got in with a lot of support and with even more potential support, but he squandered it because he came across as someone who doesn’t truly want to win. The joke quickly became that Thompson had to be woken up during debates. (more…)

What do you think? Ed Morrissey calls it “the best Christmas ad in this cycle.” Stephen Bainbridge likes it very much as well.

Dean Barnett wrote an article for The Daily Standard about yesterday’s Republican debate. Who are, in his opinion, the winners and losers?

Winners:

- Fred Thompson, closely followed by Mitt Romney. For Thompson his performance could very well, according to Barnett, revive his campaign.

Losers: (more…)

Not surprisingly some of the more seasoned members of the right-of-center commentariat are highighting the limitations of Fred Thompson, like I did last week.

David Frum:

Fred Thompson’s nostalgic campaign is one last attempt to win one for the Gipper. But it won’t work. 2004 closed that chapter of American politics. Republicans must become the party of ideas again – and if they do not do so in time for 2008, they will find themselves with lots of unwelcome thinking time on their hands between now and 2012.

And Andrew Sullivan:

At times his candidacy feels merely like a rationale for a man who senses that Americans are deeply uneasy about their current leadership, wants to reassure them, , but has no idea substantively how.

And that may be the right approach to win the GOP nomination, beyond that it is a strategy destined to fail.

Well-known Tennessee-based blogger and pundit Bill Hobbs has an answer and written an e-book about it for only $4. You can buy it here.

So Fred is out of the gates, announcing on Leno’s show and on his own site.

The unoriginal way in which Thompson is trying to claim Reagan-mantle makes it clear that he is positioning himself as the principled conservative who can occupy a sizeable portion of the centerfield. In that he should be able to outmaneuver both Giuliani and Romney who have similar capabilities, but who lack southern traction and who have already been bruised by a few months of fairly intense campaigning and media exposure.

Thompson comes in fresh and will no doubt capture a big slice of the post-Labor Day momentum. Many commentators are falling over one another to hang the ‘Reaganesque’ label on the new contender but it is worth reminding ourselves that Fred is no Gipper. The latter became a conservative through a lifelong political journey in which direct experience – notably as a union leader – helped frame his views in such a way that they formed a solid platform for a visionary campaign in a time when the electorate wanted change. Years of interacting with the average American during his GE years enabled Reagan to distill his views into a message that resonated deeply with ordinary citizens, giving birth among other things to the so-called Reagan Democrats. That combined with the quality of being an outsider helped propel Reagan into Washington.

None of these qualities are part of the package offered by the former Senator and lobbyist from Tennessee. He may have the goods to reshape the GOP field and lead the party into the 2008 contest, but he will face an uphill struggle in converting his party’s defensive position into one of offense. If he wins the GOP ticket, he will likely face another consummate Washington-player who has smelled that change may once more be part of the American menu.

AFTERTHOUGHT: And man does Thompson look old and worn at 65. In comparison Reagan looked boyish when he was first elected president at age 69.

Good news for Hillary Clinton and Fred Thompson (who has yet to officially announce his candidacy): the two of them lead the polls in Nevada. The results (Republicans):
Fred Thompson, 25 percent

Mitt Romney, 20 percent

Rudy Giuliani, 17 percent

John McCain, 8 percent

The results (Democrats):
Hillary Clinton, 39 percent

Barack Obama, 17 percent

John Edwards, 12 percent

Bill Richardson, 7 percent

Obviously a very, very easy lead for Hillary Clinton. If you look at this poll, it is difficult to imagine another Democratic winner in Nevada. Good to see that Mitt Romney is doing relatively well as well. I find it difficult to say much about Thompson’s position: on the one hand, he might take a very comfortable lead in the coming months (there is a base), but on the other hand, he has not been attacked yet, he did not defend his former votes / actions / words yet; he did not appear in any of the debates yet, etc. In other words: he might lose that support very quickly.

Less cautious: Thompson will most likely do very well. Not just in Nevada, but everywhere. Republicans seem to adore him (for some reason).

Something has to be said about Thompson: nobody was talking about him until quite recently. Suddenly, he has become the savior for many. It is all a bit strange.

Fred Thompson’s secret weapon:

IN the battle for the women’s vote, Fred Thompson has a secret weapon against Hillary Clinton - the legions of former girlfriends who still adore him and who want him to be president.

The Hollywood actor and former Tennessee senator racked up an impressive list of conquests during his swinging bachelor days in the 1990s, but he appears to have achieved the impossible and kept their friendship and respect.

For those who wonder, yes, this is British humor.

Some of Thompson’s ex-girlfriends:

Lorrie Morgan, a country singer who dated Thompson and considered marrying him in the mid1990s, told The Sunday Times: “I couldn’t think of a bad word to say about Fred if somebody put a gun to my head.

“Fred is a perfect example of chivalry. He’s the kind of man little girls dream about marrying, who opens doors for you, lights your cigarettes, helps you on with your coat, buys wonderful gifts. It’s every woman’s fantasy.” Thompson, who wooed Baroness Thatcher during a visit to London last week, is expected to announce officially next month that he is running for president. He is already challenging Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, for first place in polls of likely Republican voters.
[…]
One of her rivals for his affection was Margaret Carlson, now a columnist for Bloomberg News, but she has also joined in the praise for Thompson. “He’s handsome, he’s charming, he sounds like a president,” Carlson gushed recently. “He’s smart, he’s articulate, he knows his line, he can hit his mark.”

Morgan: “I think he has a great chance of capturing the women’s vote. He’s majestic. He’s a soft, safe place to be and that could be Fred’s ticket. Women love a soft place to lay and a strong pair of hands to hold us.”

Geogette Mosbacher, a Republican fundraiser who once dated Thompson as well: “[He will appeal to] traditional women who will like the Southern gentleman in him. Another thing that is extremely attractive about Fred is that he is a really good listener. As a woman you can talk to Fred about any subject and know that you’re getting someone who respects your opinion and isn’t just being polite.”

Margaret Carlson, columnist for Bloomberg News: He’s handsome, he’s charming, he sounds like a president. He’s smart, he’s articulate, he knows his line, he can hit his mark.”

Sarah Knestrick, whom he married in Tennessee at 17 and divorced 26 years later, intends to campaign for Thompson.

Fred’s campaign slogan: Vote Fred, Vote Soft and Safe.

WSMV-TV reports that Fred Thompson will officially announce his candidacy in Nashville next week.

Let the games being I’d say. Having Thompson formally enter the race will turn the race (read the polls) upside down. However, more importantly than the polls is: what does he has to say about the issues? What are his plans?

Fred Thompson continues to appeal to the conservative base, this time by taking on CAIR:

I’ve talked before about the Council on American-Islamic Relations — most recently because it filed that lawsuit against Americans who reported suspicious behavior by Muslims on a U.S. Airways flight. Better known just as CAIR, the lobbying group has come under a lot of scrutiny lately for its connections to terror-supporting groups. This time, though, The Washington Times has uncovered some very good news about the group.

For years, CAIR has claimed to represent millions of American Muslims. In fact, they claim to represent more Muslim in American than … there are in America. This has alarmed Americans in general as the group often seems to be more aligned with our enemies than us — which isn’t surprising as it spun off from a group funded by Hamas. As you know, Hamas has been waging a terrorist war against Israel and calls for its total destruction. It also promises to see America destroyed. Nowadays, Hamas is busy murdering its Palestinian political rivals.

Even with this history, and CAIR’s conspicuous failure to condemn Hamas by name, it has been treated as if represents Muslim Americans by our own government. The good news is that the financial support CAIR claims to have among American Muslims is a myth. We know this because The Washington Times got hold of the group’s IRS tax records.

The Washington Times discovered that CAIR’s membership has shrunk significantly after 9/11/01; namely, with 90%. The group’s “annual income from dues plunged from $733,000 to $59,000.”

Strangely however:

CAIR’s spending is running about $3 million a year. They’ve opened 25 new chapters in major cities across the country even as their dues shrank to a pittance.

How is that possible? How can CAI spend $3 million a year? Well, as Thompson writes, “the New York Times earlier this year reported that the backing is from ‘wealthy Persian Gulf governments’ including the UAE and Saudi Arabia.” He concludes: “Obviously, we have a bigger problem here than the one with CAIR.”

It is good to see that someone finally takes on CAIR. CAIR is an incredibly dubious organization, with (possible) ties to terrorist / fundamentalist organizations abroad. It should be exposed for what it is: an undercover organization for fundamentalists.

A USA Today poll has found that Hillary Clinton has established a comfortable lead over Barack Obama. If former Vice President Al Gore is included in the poll, Clinton leads Obama 33%-21%. If Gore is excluded she leads with 39%-26%.

Furthermore, “if the Democratic contest came down to Clinton or Obama, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents chose Clinton, 53%-42%.”

The results for the GOP (candidates):

Giuliani leads the field at 28%, down 4 points from two weeks earlier. Thompson is second at 19%, up 8 points. McCain is at 18%, 1 point lower. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is fourth at 7%, down 5 points.

Interestingly enough, “if the GOP contest came down to Giuliani or Thompson, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents chose Giuliani, 53%-41%.”

At the moment Thompson formally announces his candidacy, he is expected to rise in the polls, at least for a short amount of time.

I expected Romney to have risen in the polls - he did well in the last Republican debate. He defends his positions well, and he is - of course - the #1 Republican fundraiser.

One thing everybody should remember: this is a nationwide poll. Nationwide polls are less important than state polls. It is all about individual states right now, and in the most important states, Romney does great - he leads both in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Regarding the Democratic nomination, I think that Hillary Clinton will win, possible even quite easily. The GOP race is, in that regard, far more exciting. As far as I am concerned, three people can win it: Romney, Giuliani and Thompson.

Fred Thompson spoke via video to the National Right to Life Committee’s national convention last Thursday night (h/t the Fred File). Here is the video:
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6zejWHd5vo]

Thompson is trying to make himself look like the conservative candidate (the conservative base has been longing for). He might just succeed in it. If he does, he has a good chance of, if not winning the Republican nomination, then at least of coming close to winning it.

Keys
- look strong on national security
- talk about the war on terror as much as possible
- talk about abortion, take a pro-life stance
- talk about (cutting) taxes
- talk about reducing the size of the federal government and reducing government power, except for on certain social issues
- repeat

Thompson is doing a couple of things very well at this point: he is especially using the Internet to the fullest. YouTube, blogs, he’s using it all.

Bad news for Republicans: “By 52% to 31%, Americans say they want Democrats to win the presidency next year.”

Americans give the Republican Party their most negative assessment in the two-decade history of the Journal/NBC survey, and by 49% to 36% they say the Democratic Party more closely shares their values and positions on the issues.

The Democratic candidates do better than their Republican counterparts as well:

Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, who has strengthened her lead in the race for the Democratic nomination, leads Mr. Giuliani by 48% to 43% in a potential general-election matchup after trailing by a similar margin three months ago. Despite Mr. Thompson’s rise among Republican contenders, he trails the second-place Democratic candidate, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, by 50% to 31% in a hypothetical November 2008 contest.

Lets take a closer look at the results per party:
- among Republicans, Rudy Giuliani continues to lead the pack, this time with 29%. Fred Thompson is in second place with 20%. Romney and McCain both draw the support of 14% of those polled (Romney continues to rise in the polls).
- among Democrats, Hillary Clinton’s lead has grown: she now leads Barack Obama by 39% to 25%. In third place we find John Edwards (with 15%).

Why do Democratic voters support Clinton?

Fully 71% of Democrats rate the former first lady highly for being “knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency,” while 30% rate the first-term Sen. Obama highly on that dimension.

“Her competence campaign is working,” Mr. Newhouse said.

Hillary is doing a good job, or so it seems. Her goal is not to make to 70% of the American people like her (that is not going to happen anyway), her goal is to convince a majority of the American voters that - whether they personally like her and agree with her on everything or not - she is the most competent (Democratic) candidate.

If it is between her, Obama and Edwards, I agree with her: she is the most experienced one. She knows what politics are like at the presidential level. She knows how to make decisions that can (and do) change the world.

In the Republican camp it is safe to say that Thompson hurts McCain most. Romney will continue to rise in the polls, of that I am quite sure, Thompson - once he entered - will rise as well, Giuliani will lose some support, and suddenly we’ve got a three men race.

Ah, horse races, I know that they can be useless, but they are fun.

Glenn Reynolds links to this book, accompanied by the words, “I predict that this will do well.”

I predict that might be an understatement.