I have written previously that the United States and NATO need to take care not to be too aggressive in confronting Russia.  The necessity of Russian cooperation — or at least acquiescence — on a range of issues from non-proliferation to counter-terrorism is simply too important to be sacrificed for purely emotional payoffs such as taking David’s side in the David-versus-Goliath confrontation in Georgia.

New information from a respectable and credible on-scene correspondant (full report here), however, causes me to begin to consider the limits of this view.  While needless confrontation of Russia is certainly counterproductive, it must be balanced by a reasonable willingness not to let the Russians “run the table” by holding its cooperation with the West contingent upon the West’s acquiesence to what amounts to an aggressive Russian imperialism.  Everything depends on carefully establishing what, exactly, the facts in Georgia are. (more…)

I normally find rants about “neocons” and “warmongers” to be overheated partisanship at best and a peculiar type of dementia at worst.  But the folks at the Weekly Standard or Commentary from time to time manage to provide some justification for the most scathing critiques of their overly aggressive foreign policy stance.  Today, Stuart Koehl offers up a piece of analysis titled “The Pain Game”, which is appropriate, though likely not in the way he meant it.  In truth, Koehl’s approach would offer pain — to Russia, certainly, but more seriously to the United States. (more…)

I discuss the possible broader implications of the Georgian Crisis for the future of NATO at RealClearPolitics’ new global affairs site, RealClearWorld.

Everywhere I look while reading about the invasion of South Ossetia (and other regions) in Georgia by Russia, the question seems to be, “Where is the U.S. in all this?” Some bloggers have argued for or against a U.S. intervention in the region or embargoes against Russia. Others have said that the U.S. is hardly in a position to complain about an invasion of Ossetia after ones by the U.S. in Kosovo or Iraq.

Yet, I think the reason why the U.S. isn’t even putting a military option on the table is pretty simple really.

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PoliGazette Managing Editor Jason analyzes the situation in the Caucasus. (more…)

In international relations, the term “realism” refers to the notion that states will do what they feel they must to secure their material interests and, crudely put, to hell with what the rest of the world might think.  “Liberalism”, by contrast, refers to the idea that states will seek to cooperate economically, socially, and politically whenever possible, choosing conflict only when there are few advantages to cooperation.  Since the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s, liberalism has reigned supreme.  What U.S. President George H. W. Bush proclaimed as a “new world order” may have been in large part an aspirational myth, but there is little question that economic and cultural exchange became the dominant feature of the global system, as demonstrated so colorfully in the opening ceremonies of Beijing’s Olympics. Russia’s recent aggressiveness may signal the end of the era celebrated simultaneously in Beijing. (more…)

When the Turks invaded Cyprus, did the United States not engage in an embargo against Turkey, even though it was a peace keeping operation as approved by the treaties and the Turkish Cypriots were suffering slaughter by the Greek fascists that had taken over the island? When Iraq invaded Kuwait, did we not enact embargoes and eventually invade Iraq? When the United States invaded Iraq in 2003, did not the whole world frown and show their anger at the United States even though the United States had every right to stop a threat? So what changed? Why is it that the world silently ignores the plight of the Georgians when it is obvious that Russia invaded Georgia as part of a long term plan to assert influence in the region?

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According to Turkish government sources, Ergenekon is a conspiracy formed, among others, various disparate journalists, retired military officials and opposition party leaders. To date over 80 have been detained and brought in for questioning.

It’s a rather strange conspiracy in which those ideologically attached to the left of center, such as Labor Party leader Doğu Perinçek and leading secular liberal journalists, have attached themselves to those that are normally considered to be right of center, such as the military and capitalist businessmen— specifically, retired military officers and the head of Ankara’s Chamber of Commerce. Not only is it being alleged that this motley collection of individuals with presumably differing ideologies attached themselves to each other, but that they have found something so intoxicatingly in common so as to inextricably unite and form a criminal terrorist enterprise whose aim is to promote large scale violence to justify a military coup. (more…)

Gregory Scoblete takes a look at the underlying philosophies of Barack Obama and John McCain re. foreign policy. He concludes that McCain is a Universalist, whereas Obama is a particularist. In this post I will not try to analyze whether Gregory’s assessment of both men is correct; I’ll just deal with the two philosophies and, as the title implies, argue that Universalism has major weaknesses. As I see it, and as I will argue, Universalism is not a good basic philosophy for foreign policy. (more…)

Former U.N. ambassador John Bolton has written an op-ed called Obama “naive” for his proposals to negotiate with enemies of the United States. What Bolton overlooks, however, is how easy it is to reverse his charges to apply to his side equally well. (more…)

Speaking in Jerusalem, President Bush has condemned proposals to negotiate with Hamas, Iran, and any other group associated with terrorism. Invoking analogies to appeasement of Hitler, the President remarks injected himself abruptly into the 2008 election season where no member of his administration is a candidate. In response, DNC Chair Howard Dean demanded that Senator John McCain repudiate the President for having taken a partisan position while overseas.

This is ridiculous. There is an important debate to be had and both partisan sides bear responsibility for twisting it into nothing more than cheap opportunism. (more…)

The Washington Independent published quite an interesting article about Samantha Power, formerly the top foreign policy adviser to Senator and presidential candidate Barack Obama. The main point: Power is a member of a completely different generation of advisers than we’re used to. She “is a fierce advocate who relishes confrontation.” And her “bellicose words” highlight “the adversarial style of a new generation of Democratic foreign-policy mavens who have more in common with the raucous world of bloggers than the somber, oak-lined environs of the Council on Foreign Relations.” (more…)

Kevin Sullivan agrees with something that my own sources in the region say is the real underlying dynamic regarding U.S.-Iran relations — playing one side off against the other. Where I differ from Kevin, however, is in who is doing the playing. Kevin argues that Iran is the one that promotes instability in an effort to keep the U.S. in the region. My source — a highly placed adviser to the government of a major Gulf state — argues that the non-Iran states are the ones who want to keep the U.S. and Iran at each other’s throats as a way of balancing growing Iranian power on the cheap. He argues that what many Gulf states fear most is the recognition by Iran and the U.S. of a common, cooperative interest that would enhance Iranian influence in the region to their detriment. (more…)

“With just 2,000 American soldiers to patrol a city of 1.8 million people — the Iraqi Sunni insurgency’s most formidable urban stronghold — the U.S. military strategy in Mosul relies to an unprecedented degree on the Iraqi security forces,” the Washington Post reports. (more…)

One of the world’s most oppressive dictators has retired: earlier today, Fidel Castro announced that he would no longer be Commander-in-Chief of Cuba, the country he ruined. The announcement came 19 months after he underwent stomach surgery and, thus, 19 months after he last truly and publicly ruled. (more…)

After the depressive years under Jacques Chirac, France finally has a leader who wants France to play a major role on the international stage. (more…)

Earlier today, Jason linked to an article at Salon, in which Stephen M. Walt writes that American newspapers should hire some foreign policy realists; they’ve got neoconservative columnists, and liberal columnists, but no realists. (more…)

A while ago, Iranian navy ships purposefully annoyed US warships. Shortly afterwards the Pentagon released a video of the encounter, with sound added to it separately. Here’s the video of the encounter:

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When it comes to foreign policy and especially the war on terrorism, John McCain makes a whole lot of sense. Wondering why I say that? Watch this video at Pajamas Media. Earlier today I linked to Giuliani on the War on Terror, now is the time for McCain’s conversation with Claudia Rosett and Roger L. Simon. (more…)

The situation is deteriorating in Kenya:

Nairobi degenerated deeper into violence on Thursday as riot police used tear gas, batons and water cannons to turn back thousands of opposition supporters who tried to rally in the Kenyan capital.

Protesters burned tires, smashed store windows and fought with the police across the city. (more…)

If you’re wondering whether the story of Benazir Bhutto’s death can be even more awkward, I’ve got news for you: yes it can. The Pakistani government just made a huge u-turn. It has apologized for saying that she died of a skull fracture after hitting the sunroof of her car during a suicide attack.

The countries caretaker Interior Minister Hamid Nawaz Khan even went so far as to ask the media and people to “forgive and ignore” comments made by the Interior Ministry’s spokesman Javed Iqbal Cheema. (more…)

If anyone’s still wondering whether the NYT’s editorial board is extremely liberal or not, well, I’d say just read this editorial.

Although I agree with the Times on a few issues, I can’t help but think “yeah, yeah. Yeah.” to myself when reading the article. (more…)

Robert Novak says yes:

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto followed two months of urgent pleas to the State Department by her representatives for better protection. The U.S. reaction was that she was worried over nothing, expressing assurance that Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf would not let anything happen to her. (more…)

Robert J. Samuelson wrote a tremendous column titled “The End of Free Trade.” I suggest that all of you head on over to the WaPo to read it.

Here’s today quiz. What do the following have in common: (a) Vladimir Putin; (b) China’s currency, the renminbi; (c) the U.S.-Peru trade agreement; and (d) Hugo Ch¿vez? Answer: They all reflect the “new mercantilism.” It’s an ominous development affecting the world economy. Even as countries become more economically interdependent, they’re also growing more nationalistic. They’re adopting policies intended to advance their own economic and political interests at other countries’ expense. As practiced until the mid-19th century, mercantilism aimed to do just that. (more…)

German newspaper the Spiegel had the opportunity to talk to former US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton. He had some interesting things to say.  (more…)

CNN’s Political Ticker reports that former President Bill Clinton has said that one of the first things Hillary Clinton would do if (when?) she becomes president is to send both her husband and his predecessor George H.W. Bush on a mission to talk to allied and other countries as to restore America’s image in the world.

“Well, the first thing she intends to do, because you can do this without passing a bill, the first thing she intends to do is to send me and former President Bush and a number of other people around the world to tell them that America is open for business and cooperation again,” he said. (more…)