The Latest Polls Show Tightening Race
By Michael van der Galien
Several prominent poll companies published polls on Monday that show the race between Barack Obama and John McCain becoming more tight. Where Obama had a double digit lead in some of them, he holds a lead of maximum 7% now. One prominent pollster, John Zogby, even has Obama’s lead within the margin of error.
Rasmussen Reports‘ poll shows that 51% of voters prefer Obama, while 45% indicated in recent days they intend to vote for McCain.
According to this poll, Obama’s lead is mainly due to women and African Americans, who overwhelmingly support the Democratic candidate. McCain leads among men (two point lead), but trails narrowly among unaffiliated (or Independent) voters.
The latest Gallup poll, meanwhile, gives Obama a 7% lead, down from 10% only a few days ago. Interesting about the Gallup poll is that the polling conducted between 9 and 11 October has the gap becoming even narrower: 50% vs 46%. In other words, the current trend is in favor of McCain, not Obama.
Lastly there is Zogby International, which also has Obama in the lead, but within the margin of error: 48% vs. 44%. Significant about Zogby’s poll is that Obama does not pass the 50%; an important figure.
The latter poll also shows current trends to favor McCain.
The polls will strengthen Republicans and other McCain supporters who believe that the race is not over yet in their conviction, while Obama supporters will emphasize the 50% statistic, given by two of the three polls. As said, 50% is an important figure, for it is difficult for a candidate to win when his opponent can count on 50% of the votes nationwide, also because there are also third parties involved, who might be able to get as much as 5% of the total vote, meaning the runner-up may very well have to settle for 45%.
Trends favor McCain, though, and that is important news for his campaign.
So much for the “trends” and “momentum” for McCain….it’s back to 51-41 (Gallup) on Monday! Similar 10 point lead according to ABC/Wash Post - 53-43. 52-41 in Newsweek. Obama is up one point in the Fox News poll (46-39 now as opposed to 45-39 earlier). I see the trends clearly favoring Obama right now.
Yeah, nice try Michael. Not that I haven’t been expecting the polls to tighten as they traditionally do towards the actual election date, but all you have there is statistical noise, not a trend. Obama’s lead is both rather significant and holding very steady over the last week or so, possibly even a slight increase, though I wouldn’t bet on such.
Also important to remember that as many as one-third of voters are voting early this year, all going on right now while Obama holds a significant lead. At this rate, even coming back to a statistical tie won’t be enough for McCain.