Would Replacing Palin Help McCain Win?
Several authors around the blogosphere have suggested that John McCain might still be able to salvage his campaign if he replaces running mate Sarah Palin.
Today, Polimom over at TMV made the case for this course of action. Yet, I think that this would be a fatal mistake for McCain.
Says Polimom:
The base would be very very angry, yes. But would that keep them from voting for McCain? In light of the heat that’s been generated against Obama recently, I don’t think it would.
They’re very clearly “rallied” already, and it’s not Sarah they’re focused on.
Actually, it is Sarah they’re focused on. Consider how jubilant Republicans were when McCain made the announcement. They started flocking to his side en masse whereas before the campaign many Republicans could only just bear to consider the thought of voting for him, and only because the other option was Obama. The choice Sarah Palin effectively unified the party around McCain.
Since then, many conservatives have backtracked on their support for the Palin selection, while others have blasted McCain for his mortgage plan. Yet, for this latter group, keeping Palin on the ticket may also be the key to keeping their vote. Whatever their reservations about McCain’s economic policies, Palin represents the social conservative vote. Removing Palin and replacing her could end up taking that vote away from McCain. And without it, McCain can’t possibly survive.
Of course, McCain could put another social conservative on the ticket, but that person would end up going through a Palin-like public vetting. Even if the person was Mitt Romney, since not everybody remembers what they know about him from the primary days, they’d have to be taught again. It already took a few weeks to teach America about Sarah Palin. There simply isn’t time to do it again with another person, even if they more well know than Palin was.
Simply put, replacing your running mate this late in the campaign seems suspect. The “want to spend more time with my family” argument doesn’t work, because if this was true, she should have rejected the invitation from the beginning. Now it’ll look like trying to escape when the times have gotten tough. It’ll also bring up the question of why McCain chose her in the first place. And he doesn’t need questions of how well he vetted her.
Finally, and worst, McCain could face “bad judgment” accusations. Later, in the comments of the article, Polimom suggested her own reasoning for Palin to leave the ticket
I think that if she were to recuse herself (say… because of Troopergate), it could perhaps be pulled off.
Not really. The campaign has done their best to delay the release of the report, and the attempts failed, despite the report not being as bad as they had perhaps expected. Palin using Troopergate as the reasoning would only invite public scruitiny into the matter. McCain would be blasted for bad judgment and poor vetting. He’d end up anyway losing for those reasons.
No, for better or worse, McCain is stuck with Palin at this point. I think any candidate is stuck with their running mate selection from the time they make it, unless there’s a legitimate reason for them to leave the ticket; perhaps a health related one.
This is the story people need to focus on - Palin’s terrorist ties with Iran… http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/10/07/palins_unamerican http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eniG9l_7its
There’s about as much evidence to support a Palin with secessionist views as there is for Obama supporting anti-American violent views.
In short: diddly squat.
I believe history will mark his VP pick as the primary cause of McCain’s loss. Regardless of the nudge he got directly following the convention which was expected, she is what she is… and that is not even close to presidential material.