Obama surpases post-convention bump
Obama is now polling, according to the RCP average, at 6.6 points above McCain, which is just above his highpoint coming out of the Democratic National Convention and a 9.2 point flip from McCain’s post-election bounce.
Battleground polling also brings dismal news to McCain. Of the 8 states deemed toss-ups, Obama leads in 5, including Florida (3.1), Colorado (4.0) and Ohio (3.5), all states that went for George Bush in the past two elections.
If you add up the electoral votes of states that are solidly blue or red with those that lean, Obama gets 211 solid and 66 leaning, while McCain gets 143 solid with 15 leaning. That leaves Obama with a total of 277 electoral votes to McCain’s 158. As 270 votes are needed to win, according to this scenario, Obama could literally lose every toss-up state (exceedingly unlikely) and still win the election.
If you assume toss-ups go as they are currently polling (which is also unlikely) Obama positively crushes McCain 353 to 185, which is close to a 2 to 1 margin. I somehow find this impossible to believe.
Things are looking up for Obama and decidedly down for McCain. However I’m in no way ready to declare this race over as so many have (gloomily or gloatingly) have. Complacency is dangerous, and Obama can ill afford it. His biggest challenge is turnout, especially amongst young voters, who favor him 2 to 1 but are historically apathetic about elections. Additionally the race will tighten. McCain is going all mud all the time now, which has greatly (and in some instances, frighteningly) energized his base, which will improve his turnout. The element of race in this election is also undeniable, but after various conflicting reports, I’ve decided that we’ll only find out what the factor was after the election, if ever.
I expect at least a few of the states currently in the Obama camp to flip before election day. West Virginia, recently gone from leaning McCain to toss-up, will not vote for Obama unless McCain goes on television and calls them gutless pigs. I would expect North Carolina (now with Obama) to possibly flip before the election, and wouldn’t be surprised to see Ohio turn red, even if polling doesn’t suggest it before November 4th.
