Keep an Eye on Those Polls
The most recent CNN poll has Barack Obama up by some 8%. That’s a significant amount indeed. However, the latest CBS News poll has him up by only 3% among likely, and 4% among registered voters. One of these polls is either incorrect, or one of the two captured a new trend (towards McCain) whereas the other did not (due to timing or other reasons). It is important to point out that CBS had Obama up by 9% only a week ago - so their polls do not have a pro-McCain streak.
In the coming week, perhaps the coming two weeks, polls will be important in so far that they will tell us what the trends are. They will also inform us whether or not the new ‘take the gloves off’ strategy by both campaigns - lest we forget, the Obama campaign announced a few weeks ago already that it would take the gloves off - is working.
As far as I am concerned, the strategy employed by the McCain campaign has more potential than the one employed by Obama. The reason is that voters know most things about McCain; more than they’re ever be likely to know at least. Obama, on the other hand, remains largely unknown. This means that it is easier for McCain to depict Obama in a certain fashion; either as an anti-American radical or as a man who ‘palls around’ with such individuals.
About one in five of registered voters have yet to make up their mind. These last few weeks will be all about convincing these voters that ‘the other’ is no good. They will be encouraged to vote against rather than for a specific candidate. In the coming weeks we will see whether the attacks will pay off, and if so for whom. My guess: McCain has to to come back to around 4% in all major polls in the coming week, and he has to tie Obama in two weeks time. Obama, on the other hand, can play defense; he will simply have to hang on to his lead for as long as possible. In the end, many last deciders vote for whom they think the winner will be; winners attract more voters, losers less. If Obama goes into election day with a lead in the polls of 2%-4%, it is likely he will be able to hang on to this lead, perhaps even expand it, on election day itself.
And what about the poll in Ohio, a very important swing State?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/06/AR2008100602373.html?hpid=topnews
One of these polls is either incorrect
Taking a snapshot of individual polls on a single day ignores the possibility that both polls are outliers. A look at consensus polling at Pollster, RCP and other sites that average results shows trends versus daily noise.
Different pollsters have different methods. This is often why you’ll find one poll saying he’s up by 8, and another by 3.
Like Rudi says, pay more attentions to the poll of polls sites. Or more important, swing-state polls.