McCain’s Post-Convention Poll Bump Gone
That’s why they call them bumps; they don’t last. McCain and Obama are now basically in the same place they were before the Democratic and Republican National Conventions. Obama is up by an RCP average of 1.9 points. The day the DNC started, the 25th of August, he was up by 1.6.The only figure that has changed is the undecided, down to just 7%.
If you follow what happened during the conventions (see RCP map below) you can see that during the DNC Obama experienced a quick rise in his figures, while McCain went down, but just slightly. This left Obama with a whopping 6.4 point lead by the second of September. But this figure fell as fast as it rose, as the RNC kicked off and the combination of negative attention turned towards Obama and positive towards…well Palin mostly, put McCain up and Obama in free-fall. The post convention bounce for McCain and ouch for Obama left McCain with a 2.5 lead.
This lead was attributed in large part to white women, who were energized by Palin. A working mother with an charming personality, she seemed just the ticket for McCain. But then reality started seeping in about her lack of preparation for the job (no seeing Russia from Alaska does not count), questions about ethics and her extreme anti-choice views. Recent polling shows women gravitating back to Obama, which could account in part for the new polls, in addition to the lack of message dicipline in the McCain camp during a terrible week in the economy.
Fourth quarter, score tied 17-17. Obama has the ball after a McCain punt on his own 42 yard line. They’re lining up in the shotgun…..