Africa; A Bright(er) Future?
Robert D. Kaplan wrote quite a fascinating article for the Atlantic, about the world’s forgotten continent; Africa. According to Kaplan, Africa future might be brighter than most suspect; there are developments taking place which should give all of us hope.
For starters; the number of robust democracies on the continent has risen from three to 11, since 1977. Not only are there more robust democracies in Africa, there also far more grassroots organizations that try to spread democracy all over the continent now than there were only, say, ten years ago.
Additionally it seems, African economies are finally starting to grow at a rapid spead. ‘Real GDP in sub-Saharan Africa expanded by 6.5 percent in 2007, the highest growth rate in decades. If trends hold, poverty in Africa should be halved by 2015,’ Kaplan writes.
Oil production is booming already, and food production may very well follow suit. Africa has not had its own Green Revolution yet, but it seems likely that it will have one soon. ‘High-yield varieties of major African crops like sorghum, millet, maize, and cassava may soon be custom-fitted to Africa’s micro-terrains and climates.’
Moreover, India and especially China are becoming increasingly dependent on Africa; China is investing bigtime and will invest even more in the coming years. ‘China has supplied African countries with technical assistance in tea planting, soil analysis, and irrigation. China is leading the Asian dash into Africa, with investments as diverse as in chocolate in Ivory Coast and in copper in Zambia, and plans to build or modernize railroads, highways, and dams across the continent.’
This is, of course, in Africa’s interest.
What is even more in Africa’s interest is that the United States is not quite willing to let China have the playing field all by itself. It too is investing increasingly more in Africa. Especially African oil is popular in Washington. By 2015, the United States will get a quarter of its oil from West Africa.
And the above are not the only countries currently investing in Africa, let alone in the future. Gulf states too are already pumping billions of dollars into the formerly forgotten continent, and are likely to invest more. In short; there is a stable trend taking place. Africa is becoming a continent investors are interested in. Western, Asian and Arabic citizens and businesses - and governments of course - all realize that Africa may be behind now, but could be a major market in the future.
Of course there are many problems which has to be resolved, it could go either way with Africa, but the situation has changed in so far that there was virtually no hope only a decade ago.
Dear Michael,
I commend you on seeing fit to ventilate the Continent’s renaissance.
The African convergence with the rest of the World is the last great convergence story and it will be a late cycle Industrial Revolution, which will be breathtaking in its speed. It is the equivalent of flicking a switch [and that switch is being driven by the Mobile phone and access to the Internet via the undersea Cables which will land on the Eastern sea board within 24 months].
My car broke down 2 years ago in the middle of nowhere [between Mombasa and Nairobi] and this young boy walked up to my car and after a few minutes, confided to me that he had taught hinself Latin. I studied Latin at school and tested him thoroughly. This Boy will be able to put his knowledge to good effect once he is connected. This is going to happen all across the Continent. I cannot scientifically prove how much he might add to GDP, but surely it will be a net add?
The growth surge in China and India et al has made the Demand side of the African equation more two sided and competitive. You have not allowed for Remittances [which has shown exponential growth] and is proving to be a powerful stabiliser across the Continent. The access to information will further embed a democratic wave that Politicians will have to be cognisant of. The racalcitrant will be simply washed away. President Mugabe is now surely the exception and not the rule.
Your final point;
Of course there are many problems which has to be resolved, it could go either way with Africa, but the situation has changed in so far that there was virtually no hope only a decade ago.
Whilst confirming the low base expectation I feel it is unneccarily pessimistic. I call that the Bob Geldof prism. And meanwhile under the radar [or we are beginning to pop above it], the SSA Equity markets have entered a Golden Age.
Carpe Diem
Aly-Khan Satchu
http://www.rich.co.ke