Will McCain Pick an Outsider?
Since most of the DemoConvention 2008 mania for today is yawn invoking, I just briefly wanted to offer up some thoughts on where I think John McCain might go in his Vice Presidential selection.
Anyone who hasn’t been on Mars (which ought to be nobody) in the last couple days knows that Barack Obama picked as his running mate that long standing Washington insider, Joe Biden. I made the case for Biden the other day, explaining that it is necessary to have an insider like Biden, because lets face it: Obama’s a newbie. You can make the argument for or against that a Biden pick just emphasizes his inexperience, but I think Biden represents something else: connections and knowledge of the populace. Biden can give to Obama what a fellow "outsider," if you will, could not. Biden can put Obama in connection with people that he knows.
More than that, Biden may be able to make suggestions to Obama as to who would make a good Cabinet member. Who from Washington’s past and present would be ideal. Since, while I think Obama has some ideas now, he’s probably open to what someone else might suggest. There’s a risk in having your insider Vice President help you in choosing department secretaries, of course, one that the President found out: cronyism. After all, eight years ago, George W. Bush picked uber-insider Dick Cheney as his running mate. That, combined with contacts from H.W.’s and Reagan’s term gave us the motley crew we saw for a while, and still continue to see.
So, just as Obama’s pick of Biden may help him in deciding who would make a good Secretary of Defense, for example, by combing through those people who’ve worked in Washington, John McCain picking a relative "outsider" could work in much the same way.
Just opposite.
Say McCain picks Romney, or Palin, or Pawlenty, or Crist, or even Ridge (yea, I know he was SECDHS; give me a minute). There are some people that might be able to name some names for McCain, give him some suggestions for options to consider outside Washington. Yet, there are some dangers in naming for two names on the above list. Romney hadn’t held political office (appointed or otherwise) before 2003 and Palin before 2006. So, while they might be able to help somewhat in Cabinet selection, Romney and Palin are probably not the best people to approach if you want to meet some people that they’ve met.
Still, a McCain pick might not even be expected to fulfill some of these duties. Perhaps the reason McCain has looked at some many outsiders as possibilities is that he knows the importance of appealing to Average Joe America. As an uber-insider himself, McCain needs to show that he’ll listen to the concerns of those in the states, and what better way to do that than by selecting a governor, who has to do that job all the time? In that case, Romney is probably back on the list (Ridge only served as governor for two years longer, after all), but Crist probably joins Palin in being off the list in this case.
Yes, in both these cases, Ridge is an outsider. Even though he served as the Secretary of Homeland Security, it was only for two years. If Obama’s nearly four years in the Senate makes him an outsider, Ridge’s two years of Secretary certainly does as well.
Finally, the strongest argument that McCain will pick an outsider is probably the simplest: most of the names bandied around by analysts and water-tested by the McCain camp have been outsiders. Sure, insiders like Joe Lieberman have had their names thrown into the mix as well, but mostly, it’s been outsiders. Compare that to the rather insider-heavy rumored shortlist Obama had.
So, while an outsider pick for McCain is not a guarantee, there’s already strong evidence that it might happen, and, I think, a good argument for it. It would definitely be an interesting dynamic for the general election. On one side, a self-proclaimed outsider running with an uber-insider. On the other, an uber-insider running with a unambiguous outsider.
I think Biden was a dangerous pick for Obama. He isn’t exactly a man of the people. His largest contributions came from the banks and credit card companies to pass legislation to make it more difficult to erase bad debt..also, his son works for the same company and they have gained nearly $750K between them on the dealings. Biden has left a trail Helen Keller could find.
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2008/08/biden_and_son_friends_of_the_c.html
I think Romney would be a dangerous person for McCain because he is a Mormon. The Christian groups want no part of Romney and have been running ads against him for some time now. I think a Romney choice would be suicide.
Palin is a BOLD but the best choice for McCain. Conservatives unite. Get behind McCain/Palin ticket. Contact Senator McCain & Gov Palin!
It baffles me that the most likely pick for McCain’s VP has gotten NO MENTION whatsoever (it is Rush Limbaugh, of all people, that has named him as a potential running mate), yet may almost be too obvious and boring to mention. That would be South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham.
It might be natural, given that Obama has picked Biden, for McCain to play center counter game and pick an outsider like Romney. Natural, but wrong. People tend to forget: Veeps are not furniture that slip into the driver’s seat when the main guy snuffs it. They are perhaps the most important advisor to the president, and a potentially powerful ally in the senate. Since they are an elected official, the President can’t fire them like he can his other advisors. Therefore there is one thing that McCain will have to expect out of his veep and demand: absolute, unconditional loyalty. He cannot get that out of Romney, because he and Romney not only are totally unlike each other, but also run in different circles. McCain will have to pick someone who he is comfortable with (i.e. someone he has worked with before), and Romney does not fit that bill.
McCain will also not pick someone who is left of him (Liberman, Powell, Ridge, Collins, Snowe, and throw in Rice simply because no one knows anything about what she stands for on most issues) He already makes conservatives nervous, and his age means that the potential for one of these people landing in the White House would simply make conservatives see red all over again. Moreover, these people (except Collins and Snowe who my guess is are happy with their 80-90% approval ratings anyway). simply confirm strong national security credentials he already has anyway. He would be seen as a man who is not sufficiently focused on the economy, and the Democrats would exploit this to the max.
The most conservative woman in the senate is from my home state of Texas, but Kay Bailey Hutchinson has her eyes on our governors seat when he retires (which may be a while, as Rick Perry looks reasonably happy with his seat). Being thrust into the national spotlight does not really seem to suit her, and she and McCain never really struck me as people who worked in the same circles (although given that they are both in the most exclusive club in the U.S., I suppose it’s likely they have worked together). If McCain is going to pick a woman, it should be a woman in the spotlight already (to do otherwise would be a blatant pander to the HRC vote which probably wouldn’t work), and except for Rice, there are none.
It seems like I’ve spent a lot of time dissing other candidates as potential nominees, so let me talk up Graham for a minute. Given McCain’s image as a maverick (real or not) he is both Washington insider and outsider. The best option for him is not to have his pick be a polar opposite of him, but rather someone who can step into his shoes if he becomes unfit to be president (i.e death or health reasons). In other words, a McCain junior. A person that affirms McCain as McCain. A person who is pro-life and a solid conservative, but is not afraid to reach across the aisle and get things done. A person who is younger, but not too young. And a person who is fanatically loyal. (Sorry about all the rhetorical fragments).
Lindsey Graham started out in the House and served 3 terms. In 2002 he ran for Strom Thurmond’s vacated seat and won. Since then, he has gained a reputation in the Senate as the person closest to McCain on many issues. During the Abu Graib scandal McCain’s comments to Rumsfeld were unremarkable; it was Graham who laid into him the hardest of any Republican senator. He also joined the so-called "gang of 14" to prevent the fillibustering of Bush’s judicial appointments. He is perhaps best known for his vigorous defence of Samuel Alito that moved Alito’s wife to tears. Most importantly, he complements McCain in almost every way. He is articulate where McCain is gruff. He is younger than McCain by 20 years. And he supported McCain in his darkest days of this campaign and also in the 2000 campaign.
Perhaps the biggest argument aginst him: he is McCain’s Veep vetter, which means that McCain would be following the Bush habit of "picking the picker." But in every other way, he makes a good candidate. In addition to all this, he is rather boring, an affirmation of the first rule in veep choices: "Do no harm."
McCain will doom himself if he picks Graham. He’s considered a RINO by conservatives and many will stay home. McCain better weigh his desire for loyalty against his desire to get elected. No Republican will win a national election when he pisses off the base.