McCain Leads Obama by Five Points
We can now definitely say that Senator John McCain has a serious chance of winning the elections in November; according to the latest Zogby/Reuters poll, he has opened a lead of 5%. That’s for the first time in months that McCain has taken such a lead. Better; it’s for the first time this campaign.
Does the poll mean that McCain will win? No, it merely means that he’s competitive… and that’s much more than most people anticipated when it became clear that the national election would between him and Obama.
McCain is definately competitive, but I have to ask, as always, why you pick and choose the polls that favor McCain? Of the past 7 polls, 2 favor McCain and 5 Obama (two by those same 5 points and three by virtually nothing).
I’ll ask the question again, why the cherrypicking? What significance does it have? McCain is doing better than before and Obama is suffering under the onslaught of negative campaigning by the McCain team (while resisting getting down into the mud as much himself) besides having a lot less message than usual.
The race is definately tightening, no doubt, but I think that needs to be demonstrated through an AVERAGE of ongoing polls, not someones favorite poll.
Claudia,
I increasingly wonder if the hard-core partisans on both sides actually have physical filters installed on their news. No matter how hard you try, you can’t get them to even acknowledge the existence of any story that doesn’t feed their particular meme and yet no story that does is too obscure to be dug up and highlighted endlessly. Try scrolling through Memeorandum some time — it is beyond stark, it is nearly 100%.
At least that is a more charitable interpretation than the alternatives.
That’s for the first time in months that McCain has taken such a lead. Better; it’s for the first time this campaign.
That’s also just after his words against abortion, about "Judeo-Christian values", etc. Do you really enjoy?
As French, this story wakes up in me bad memories of the last years. A party believes to find the best candidate, because this candidate is praised by many Medias. And several months after, the Medias destroy their toy.
Enfin, on verra bien…
It’s not the first time McCain’s been ahead…back towards the beginning of the year, February-March, he was ahead of Obama.
None of which changes the basic dynamics: That Grandpa John isn’t likely to win in November
I’m getting a little bored of the complaints about partisanship or of how important or unimportant a poll is.
I’m especially tired of the ageism references, it is as bad as racism. I think it’s worse because people are not told/taught about ageism hatred. Calling John McCain old, or implying that, is simply absurd, I know 50 year olds who have worse memory than McCain, so it’s not about age, it’s about health, determination, skill, strong genes, and character.
Yes, I’m sure it’s as bad as racism.
I’m sure I can read in history books how the KKK attacked nursing homes and how the southern states passed laws banning the elderly from voting.
And I’m sure that I won’t see strong associations between advanced age and Alzheimer’s, hypertension, etc…
Tom, it may be overstating it to draw an equivalency, but that doesn’t make it acceptable to apply a stereotype to a man who shows no legitimate reason to be characterized that way.
McCain is old and has health issue due to years as POW. He will probably die in office. Pick your VP carefully.
The poll is an outlier (and from the notoriously variable wild Zogby to boot) so the "lead" is not what should concern the Obama campaign. What should is the confirmation of the slippage trends in the sub-demographics.
I refuse to make an issue out of McCain’s age as long as his mama is still around to kick my ass. And she is, and maybe could.
Here’s a more balanced view to answer Claudia’s criticism of cherry picking. Really the more significant part of the story is that some of the poll averaged electoral college counts are now showing McCain pulling ahead, and that virtually all of the polls show Obama’s support declining while McCain’s rising.
I won’t claim to be unbiased here, but I’m starting to get the feeling that political analysts in hindsight will note what a lousy campaign Obama has run in the general so far. Even as an amateur strategist, I’d say he’s gotten things backward by promising to run a positive campaign and trying to focus his message on the positive during the summer and NOW turning negative towards the end. First, that gets it backward because people tend to want to end on a high note and feel good about their choice instead of casting a vote against the other candidate. And second, it puts the Democrats in their typical reactionary, defensive mode.
Of course the surrogates on both sides have been negative all along (Obama’s much more so than his supporters will admit, and he also had Hillary’s camp doing a lot of the mudslinging at Republicans early on), but when you look at the official McCain campaign they’ve obviously gone negative during the summer (but used humor, not mud) and now will likely focus more on McCain’s positives.
Obama is suffering under the onslaught of negative campaigning by the McCain team
Poor Obama. Poor poor Obama. Color me unimpressed by that charge, as the McCain campaign has not been markedly nasty.
while resisting getting down into the mud as much himself
Because, of course, whining and accusing the other guy of being a mean old bully for actually bringing up issues and such doesn’t count. Classic "pity me" tactics from the cult of victimology.
It’s actually been a rather clean campaign so far by historical standards, including recent history. I’m sure that will change soon enough, from both directions.
That’s also not accounting for the assorted cheerleaders and wingnuts, who will do whatever strikes their fancy despite and regardless of any intent or inclinations on the parts of the candidates or any solid basis for the claims used. Many will get down and dirty, but few will be doing so on orders from the campaigns.
It always pays to remember that one’s "friends" can do one much more damage than one’s opponent, and that fair or not, one WILL be judged somewhat by the company one keeps.
I’ve had enough of the ‘cherrypicking’ complaints. That’s done now. There are other polls out there, but they all show one thing; McCain is seriously gaining whereas Obama is losing support. It’s a close race, that is clear. I make that clear in virtually every post I write. Pro-Obama people should, for a change, write their own take on events and stop complaining when they disagree with someone or when they see someone spending attention to a (good quality by the way) poll they don’t particularly like.
Done, clear. Every comment that charges that Obama or McCain is being treated unfairly, etc. because the poster is biased according to the reader will from now onwards be deleted.
"as the McCain campaign has not been markedly nasty. "
Lose war rather than win campaign, Landstuhl. Nothing Obama has done comes close - McCain is playing the culture war. Obama has finally realized that he has to go negative in battleground states and I like that.
"whining and accusing the other guy of being a mean old bully for actually bringing up issues and such doesn’t count."
Screaming about not taking a 3 AM call, Landstuhl, tire-pumping tropes and culture warfare is not raising of issues. It’s low. Bush low.
Also, Obama eats gay salad. McCain approved that ad. That tells me enough about him. I know just what McCain is and I don’t want him around at all.
That’s a bit harsh Michael.
(I’ll tolerate the deviation from commenting about the comments policy because it is you, Tom. To everyone else, yes, he is getting special treatment. Deal with it.)
Michael is understandably frustrated with the constant drumbeat of commenters who will indict the alleged motives of authors instead of engaging their argument substantially. Element #1 of the comments policy already addresses this.
As editors (just like at any magazine), we have the right to be selective in what "letters to the editor" (comments) we choose to publish. Anyone who can’t comment without attacking the alleged motives of the post author can see their comments deleted. I don’t think that is in any way unreasonable.
No comment will ever be deleted merely because it contains a substantive, principled disagreement about any issue.
I think the poll may be on the McCain side of the trend, but it’s hardly inaccurate. All it means is the race is effectively tied - no more, no less.
I wouldn’t freak out about it if I was an Obama fan. Too many things can happen between now and November. Personally, I would say that I have switched over the last few weeks from a slight Obama lean to a firmer McCain lean. There are, however, many weeks left, and the debates could be a good way to stage a comeback, both personally and nationally.