Georgia and Russia; Where is NATO
At this moment, more than 1,000 Georgians have died in South Ossetia. The Russians have only lost ten lives. These numbers aren’t too surprising considering the fact that Russia has a stronger and larger army. What is surprising about the Russian attack and the successful nature of the fighting thus far for the Russians is that NATO is not doing much against the Russian aggression; make no mistake about it, Russia is trying to restore its power in the region. Vladimir Putin has been working towards this point for years. His puppet successor obviously carries Putin’s agenda on.
In the comment section of my post on the invasion co-blogger Jonathan Wilson argues that NATO should do something. Managing Editor Jason Steck replied that there is not much NATO can do since it cannot possibly risk a nuclear war with Russia over this case. It is simply not in NATO’s interest to fight over Georgia, or, perhaps better put, the pros do not outweigh the cons.
Although most of what Jason said is correct, I believe it is safe to assume that Russia will not use nuclear weapons over a small country like Georgia. If NATO would come to Georgia’s aide, Russia would probably back off (if it gets something in return, like guarantees that the Russians in South Ossetia are treated well). Russia’s leaders are no extremists. They want to make Russia a big power, as it once was, but they do not believe in radical theories about race or nationality. They are men who dream of a greater and more powerful Russia, but who are not willing to start a major war to see this dream become reality. You could say that they have a vision for their country, but that they are certainly not extremists.
So there is something NATO could do. It could threaten with military action or, better, intervention and it could start talking to Russia actively to convince the Russians to stop their aggression. If this does not suffice, NATO countries can punish Russia by other means, and they can start the procedure to send peacekeepers to the region. Turkey, an important NATO ally, is located close to Georgia; Turkey’s territory can be used by NATO to push the Russian forces back into Russia. Such a threat alone would be suffice to push the Russians back into their own territory. My own estimation is that Putin and the country’s president have decided to attack Georgia because they believe that the West will sit by and do nothing. If the West would unite, they would take a step back immediately.
One question Michael:
What if Russia doesn’t respond to the threat?
NATO will then either have to back down or carry through on its threat. And given that we’re facing a nuclear-armed former superpower I don’t know if I’d want to assume that the warfare would remain limited. And even a limited war can cause severe casualties and infrastructure damage.
I’m sure someone will eventually bring up Hitler and the failure to stop the Nazis prior to WWII, and use that as a reason to take military action against Russia. Even though there’s no evidence that Russia plans to conquer Europe or engage in genocide.
This looks like a lot of chest-thumping on both sides, and it might be best if the U.S. stayed out of it. I know we have 2,000 Georgian troops in Iraq, but both parties more or less brought this on themselves, and we should push for a neutral solution that focuses on peacekeeping.
Georgia is at fault here, they do own south Ossetia but the majority of people in south Ossetia do not want any part of Georgia. Most of the people are fleeing into Russia for cover. If Russia was the aggressor then the people would be running the other way. Russia is protecting the south ossetian population from the Georgians who are trying to kill as many south ossetians who also hold Russian citizenship. The End.
Michael; although I understand your reasoning I think we have to keep in mind that preventing Russia from becoming a major power once again and one that bullies allies of the West is in our interest (not just America’s, but the West’s).
TheAre: not everyone can just start creating countries for themselves. It does not quite work like that.
I doubt that Russia will ever be a major power again, whatever the result of this conflict with Georgia. Just compare economies or military budgets.
Georgia start the war. Russians protect south Osetia. USA need OIL thats why they put their ass overthere.
Michael doesn’t know what he is talking about, since the U.S. has nothing in the area. Apparently, any time any military conflict occurs anywhere in the world, it is time to talk about how horrible the U.S. is and to throw in a reference to "OIL" as an explanation. Morons. :rolleyes:
Georgia did not start the war, Russia INVADED Ossetia in the first place. I am aware of no credible evidence of “ethnic cleansing” in south Ossetia. We only have Russia’s word on that and that is…less than credible from the destroyers of Grozny.
Tom, Russia does not need a comparable military budget as long as they maintain a large nuclear force and the willingness to use it. They have one, and their doctrine since the end of the Cold War has increased their reliance on it even further. In truth, the Soviets never attached the absolute taboo to nuclear weapons that we have developed in the West. To them, they were very large artillery. Anyway, Russia IS and will always be a “major power” and the U.S./NATO can’t lose sight of that.
If russia is comitting genocide and georgians are targetting russian prior to the recent actions of the Russian military it does not matter what has happened in the past those that are persuing death and ingnorant ethinic ideals should be cut off from the west economically and left to suffer until they are ready for real change. Nato cannot idoly stand by. We persued Iraq in an effort to dismantle terrorist orginizations in the midle east and bring democracy to a crumbled nation that what spewing its ignorance onto our american shores If Russia is targeting Georgian civilians america due to its actions agains Iraq and its quote morals cannot allow this to continue.
Please, stop wars.
Peace…
“At this moment, more than 1,000 Georgians have died in South Ossetia”.
Goebbels would admire that. There are NO Georgians population in South Ossetia, they left the region more than 14 years ago after unsuccesful attempt of official Tbilisi to wage a genocide against Ossetians.
Russia indeed invaded Georgia…honestly its idiotic to say its georgias fault… russia WANTS to regain the influence it knows its lost and is continuing to lose in the region , and for the folks in South Ossetia… its never really been about independence or autonomy ..they want to REJOIN russia taking a hunk of georgia with it.
The idea of russian "peacekeepers" is joke…theyve blantantly chosen a side for along time now and have been more than happy keeping tensions moving along nicely.
#2 not #5. Changed my name a little with all the Michaels it was getting confusing.
To answer Jason’s point I think preventing Russia from becoming a major power is an unrealistic goal. It has a vital role to play in the world economically, geopolitically, and geographically, and that all without the elephant in the room: nuclear weapons, which we need Russia’s partnership on. Moreover, no one could go to any country whether its the US or Monaco and say, "You can’t be a great power because you’re too dangerous." It just doesn’t work that way. If we come out looking like jerks because we wont stand up for a tiny U.S. ally that made some rash decisions, well, I hate to say it, but tough. Really I think Russia wants to draw us in at this point, or else they believe we’re behind it, which is nonsense. Either way it would not be in our interest to respond with an escalation in tensions between our country and theirs.
Lest people think I’m completely cynical, of course if there is a serious threat of Georgia being annexed we should intervene, but that’s not going to happen. This is about Georgia not wanting to give up provinces that haven’t really been a part of Georgia for 17 years. This is about Russia not wanting to share a border with a tiny NATO member. This is also about the fact that Georgia’s president is hardly a model democrat himself, and thus the potential for NATO membership was looking faint anyway.
To make a broader point, it does seem though that when it comes to geopolitical concerns, 7 Trillion Nationalists constitutes a catastrophe waiting to happen (the Welcome to Beijing video on YouTube I actually find a little chilling). I’ve often worried about the prospect of an aligning of stars that could produce the next Gavrilo Princip. This fire needs to be put out and put out quickly.
Price of oil a few weeks ago. 147.00
Price of oil today……………… 115.20
The BTC pipeline runs thru Georgia, bypassing Russia to Turkey and onto the western nations.
Russian officials have indicated they will most likely stop exporting oil by 2010.
Russia is finding its resurgence on the world stage thru the price of oil.
Conflict in the world tends to make oil rise in price, especially when this conflict might interrupt the supply of oil.
The BTC pipeline which pumps roughly 700k bbls of oil is smack dab in the middle of this and Russia is one of the largest exporters of oil in the world right now.
Oil? Yes I would say this is a ploy by Russia to shore up sagging oil prices.
The way I see it Georgia has been a bit ungenerous towards the disgruntled in the two regions. OTOH, Russian top politicians has been supporting sometimes violent and disruptive rebels simply in order to whip up nationalism at home and to weaken Georgia. Both countries have been using thousands of people as pieces of a board game. A tip, kids: Don’t live on top of natural resources or natural resource trading hubs - the big boys will find an excuse to mess you up.
“more than 1,000 Georgians have died in South Ossetia. The Russians have only lost ten lives” — correction 1400 South Ossetians… 90% of Russian Origin and passport holders! Get you facts correct first, without creating a skewed image!
“TheAre: not everyone can just start creating countries for themselves. It does not quite work like that” you mean like Kosovo??? This shows how unbiased you article is LOL!
One more fact bro… NATO will not go on a direct collision course with Russia since Russia is not a push over. NATO is only a bully, will bully the weak but will run tail tucked up the rare end when met with equal opposition.
Russia is no more in the 90s’ it has emerged and is emerging, and the military expenditure is very different since Russian weapons cost far less than America once but are of equal effectiveness.
Doug Muir at A Fistful of Euros says Georgia made a serious miscalculation in sending troops into South Ossetia:
http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/europe-and-the-world/south-ossetia-alea-jacta-est/
1) Anti-War mongering is just as bad as war-mongering.
"Russia is no more in the 90s’ it has emerged and is emerging, and the military expenditure is very different since Russian weapons cost far less than America once but are of equal effectiveness."… Welcome to our blog, comrade. Looks like our resident Russian nationalists are popping up everywhere.
2) Stop with the OIL conspiracies.
3) Russia has no right to invade Georgia, and it has no right to ask for South Ossetia’s independence. South Ossetia has no right to declare independence either, because it is not suffering under any Goergian authority. Just because they have their own language or believe they are a different ethnicity doesn’t make a difference. If we were to use such ideas, then the United States should be divided into 80 nations. You never divide nations by ethnicity, national origin, or language, unless they are suffering oppression or violence under their current administration.
4) South Ossetia has 90% Russian citizens because Russia distributed passports to everyone in South Ossetia. South Ossetia is FILLED WITH GEORGIANS AND OSSETIANS not Russians.
5) 1,500 GEORGIANS DIED, NOT Ossetians or Russians. Please use some logic when bombers and tanks of Russia enter, I highly doubt that Ossetians or Russians die.
6) Russia has been amassing troops on the border of Georgia for months before this event. There is no reason for Georgia to aggravate an already aggressive Russia, and therefore, you cannot make the argument "well Georgia brought it on themselves" because they didn’t, it was all Russia.
7) NATO is not a bully, NATO is a caring mother that doesn’t know how to punish any children except to quietly ask them to stop. NATO is powerless not a bully. A real bully is actually Russia, who goes around bossing central asian and caucus nations, while at the same time blaming other nations for their problems, and while at the same time oppressing their own people since World War One. It has become a tradition in Russia to oppress others.
9) NATO and the United States should do something. Not threaten Russia, because they will call it a bluff and keep doing what they are doing because Russia is a bully who will not stop unless someone stands up to them. NATO and the United States need to send a clear message, and enact an EMBARGO ON RUSSIA rather than maybe military action. There are loads of punishments to Russia, boycotts would ruin Russia as well.
10) Two wrongs don’t make a right. And especially Russia has no right to ask for anyone’s independence, and especially Russia has no right to invade a sovreign nation for "peacekeeping" considering Russia is the most war-mongering nation in the planet. Especially Russia does not have the right to talk about South Ossetia because they are the ones who attack Chechan separatists and terrorists, and they are the ones who get angry when nations try to move away from Russian influence. Especially Russia does not have a right to do any of this, because they are the ones that fund terrorism in countries they find as a threat.
"South Ossetia has no right to declare independence either, because it is not suffering under any Goergian authority." Oh, really? Have you heard about Mhedrioni? Those Georgian gangs who who waged a genocide in South Ossetia in early 90-s. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_South_Ossetia_(1991?1992) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mkhedrioni
"South Ossetia has 90% Russian citizens because Russia distributed passports to everyone in South Ossetia."
There are so many Russian citizens in South Ossetia because Ossetians pretty well know what Georgian rule is all about (see Mkhedrioni). So they quite naturally had chosen not to be part of the state which supported genocide against them and take Russian passports instead of Georgian.
"1,500 GEORGIANS DIED, NOT Ossetians or Russians. Please use some logic when bombers and tanks of Russia enter, I highly doubt that Ossetians or Russians die."
Your advice about logic you should use first. Current conflict started not by Russian tanks but when Georgian army unleashed offencive with heavy artillerry targeting the capital of S. Ossetia kiilling hundreds of Ossetian civilians.
Editor in Chief; your comment in #4 is the height of hypocrisy; "not everyone can create countries for themselves. It doesn’t work like that." Please tell me how this differs from Kosovo. There, just as in Ossetia a country was created by an ethnic group that declared itself independent. The only difference was that they were supported by the west. Bullying of any country is wrong. The west’s bullying of Russia is even more wrong. Trying to isolate piecemeal by incorporating all these eastern territories into NATO makes Russia very nervous. Deservedly so. When the former Soviet Union landed missiles in Cuba, WWIII almost broke out. What is the difference now? Imagine if Belgium threatened Holland with missiles. It’s too close for comfort. Peace is the only solution and unfortunately people like you are the ones creating discomfort for other countries like Russia by militarizing countries just over their borders. The West’s hasn’t been able to open up Russian markets the way their corporations would like; therefore have labeled Russia an enemy. Propoganda such as your website don’t deserve to be called a "gazzette".ZZ
Go Georgia. Beat those damn Russians!
It looks like Russia has trumped the West and Bush is swallowing this bitter pill meekly. Georgia is now suffering and could in all possibility end up under the Russian boot. This will create a contiguous Russian front on Nato’s eastern flank linking up with Armenia, a country that never left the orbit of Russia (the Russian military control Armenia’s border with Turkey. Their armour patrol the border openly). The US has been confronted by Russia openly and the US has blinked. Apart from the shame of virtually abandoning a staunch ally, the US has effectively made an ignominious retreat in the face of Russian aggression. Where will the next challenge come from?
TheAre, you need to remember that all of the Russians living in Georgia were sent there during the Soviet era. Therefore Georgia has already been to subjected to 60 + years of occupation and the genocide that came with the Soviets. Russia has ambition to be a super-power again and the sooner we recognize the fact and start taking action the less we will have to pay. How much did Ronald Regan and the previous administrations before him have to spend to fight off the advancement of communism. We were right to help Georgia and the former occupied countries and Europe and the United States need to act now.
No one waged genocide against the Ossetians. Claiming so, means you don’t have any knowledge of what genocide even means.
Considering that the South Ossetians are quite well and alive, even though since 1989 no one has come to their rescue, shows quite clearly that there was no genocide, and is most likely Russian propaganda.
Is it not probable then, that Georgia may not have even attacked South Ossetia, that we so ready accept as truth? What if it is propaganda as well? How do we know that Georgian troops were not directly provoked to shell the capital by Ossetian troops?
What I do know is. If Russia was simply trying to save the Ossetians from this alleged "Georgian Oppression" then why is it that Russia has to conquer basically all of Georgia? Seems to me like that’s just an inconvenient truth for Russia.
No one in the world, can ever say, that Russia’s Georgian invasion is a peacekeeping effort. It is as sly, dirty, and bad as when Saddam Hussein and Chemical Ali gassed the Kurds in Iraq.
it is all sad for everyone We will all pay a price if not economically then psycologically