Building on Progress in Iraq
‘A series of positive developments in the past year and a half offers hope that the desire of so many Americans to bring the troops home can be fulfilled without leaving Iraq in chaos,’ write Stephen Biddle, Michael O’Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack in an essay published at Real Clear Politics, and which is due to appear in the September / October 2008 edition of Foreign Affairs.
In other words, the goals of both Senator John McCain and Senator Barack Obama can be reconciled, or so it seems; withdrawal from Iraq, while leaving the country stable behind.
However, the approach the three men favor now onwards towards Iraq, means that the United States should stop ‘threatening’ Iraq with withdrawal; instead, a more positive approach can be taken. The US can advocate positive changes, and when these changes occur, withdraw troops without any threats.
A withdrawal from Iraq should be moderate. The US should take its time to bring its troops back from this Middle Eastern country. At least two big elections have to take place in Iraq before the US withdraws its troops fast. These elections will take place at the end of 2008 and 2009. Although they certainly mark a step forward, they could also reopen old wounds. The US should take this into consideration; this means that troops can be withdrawn slowly from Iraq, but they should be ready to intervene at the moment elections result in civil war, or at least chaos.
In the past couple of years and months Iraq has been able to create its own army. The stronger the Iraqi army is, the easier it becomes for the US to withdraw. At this moment, the Iraqi army should be able to take care of civil and terrorist unrest. To a degree that is; the longer stability rules in Iraq, the stronger its army will become… and the less the Iraqi government has to rely on US troops to restore peace and order when extremists once again try to destroy Iraqi society.
Furthermore, the different factions have been working towards reconciliation for months now. It seems to be paying off. If given more time, they may be willing and able to compromise even more for the larger good. If they continue to do what they have been doing in the last year or so, the US will become irrelevant, useless; after all, if they can find solutions for their own problems, there is no need for the US to prevent the different Iraqi factions from fighting with each other.
But this change takes time; not as much as McCain may think, but not as little as Obama has been willing to accept either. Above all, it takes patience and support from the United States. It could very well be that the US can withdraw all or most of its troops within three years time and leave a democratic and stable Iraq (relatively spoken) behind. On the other hand, the warring factions could once again pick up their weapons and start fighting; at that moment, it could be said that all is lost and that the only way for the US to deal with the problems is to behave like a European empire of the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries.
