Not long after Turkey’s Constitutional Court ruled that the AK Parti should not be closed down, despite its anti-secular agenda, I published a post arguing that Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his fellow AKP leaders should be careful in the coming months and years; the AKP will be closed down, I wrote, if they make more ‘mistakes’ / act too often in breach with the constitution.

Thus, I thought, the AKP would be wise to follow a different course.

It now seems that the AKP understands the above on the one hand, but is emboldened enough to carry on (potentially) controversial reforms nonetheless.

Before going on, it has to be pointed out that 10 of the judges agreed that the AKP had acted in breach with the constitution; the principles of laicism as established in this document were broken on several occasions. However, the court said, they did not act anti-secular enough to warrant closing down the party. So, the party was found guilty of acting in breach with laicism, but not forced to close down; instead, they would receive 50% less funding from the central government.

That’s not as severe a punishment as many hoped, but it was meant as a clear signal nonetheless; the court hoped that the AKP would change its behavior.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pledged a commitment to Turkey’s secular system late Wednesday. “The AKP, which has never been a focal point of anti-secular activities, will continue to defend the basic principles of the Republic,” Erdoğan maintained.

Now, the above is, of course, sheer nonsense.

Sources say the AKP had prepared a double-ended action plan during the case process in preparation for whatever outcome the court reached and that it is ready to execute its plan following the court decision against closure. The party is expected to wait until fall before it makes any major or fundamental changes. AKP sources provided Turkish Daily News with details of the action plan.

Which isn’t really surprising considering that quite some TDN editors are considered to be sympathetic towards the AKP. Mustafa Akyol is one of those editors who are viewed with suspicion by Turkish Kemalists; especially by Turks living in the West. My own limited experiences with him are, however, positive.

So what will the ‘action plan’ be like?

Democratic reform packages recommended by EU officials, who during the case gave the greatest support for non-closure of the party, will be high on the government’s to-do list. Turkey-EU relations — virtually frozen for the last two years — will thaw in the period ahead. Erdoğan is expected to organize another tour of EU countries just as he did right after November’s elections. The Turkish Commercial Code; Public Tender Law; Ombudsmanship, Political Ethics Law; Political Parties Law; and regulations directed at expanding democratic rights and freedoms will be implemented when Parliament convenes by the government seeking a consensus with the opposition.

The above sounds quite logical and nice to Westerners such as myself, but many Kemalists aren’t happy with those reforms as demanded by the EU. They believe, and perhaps quite rightfully so, that the EU wants to weaken, not strengthen, Turkey (especially economically) and they fear that Islamists may use these ‘reforms’ to their advantage.

In other words, the above could very well be considered controversial.

Not as controversial as the other part of the plan, however:

 The AKP, which has suspended its attempts to prepare a brand new civilian constitution, will prepare a mini-package of constitutional amendments taking into account the warnings of the Constitutional Court. The ruling party is expected to set up a constitutional conciliation commission in Parliament to reach a consensus with the opposition. The package will include making party closures more difficult and modifying the way Constitutional Court members are elected, taking into account the opinion of the top court. The AKP will look for a consensus with the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, to alter the composition of the Higher Education Board, or YÖK.

The good news? The AKP says it wants to reach out to the secular opposition. That is good news. In the last couple of years, Erdogan et al. had basically declared war on secularists. They were marginalized and had nothing to say. The AKP had won the elections, others had to accept their plans.

However, when looking at the reforms mentioned above, it is difficult to see how the opposition will profit from Erdogan’s ‘change.’ Those reforms are all AKP reforms, not reforms the opposition supports. ‘Modifying the way Constitutional Court members are elected’ gives me the impression that the AKP is planning to take over this court (like it has taken over many institutions in the last couple of years).

Making it more difficult to close down parties? It’s a change not necessary (from the perspective of the secular opposition). The AKP has survived, which proves to many that the court doesn’t close down parties lightly. Extreme parties are closed and, in this country, for good reasons. Islamists don’t pose a threat in the West (electorally), but they do most certainly pose a threat in Turkey. Sometimes democracy have to be kept in check to protect freedom.

The changes above cannot be celebrated by Turkey’s Kemalists and not by me either.

The AKP plans to take a comprehensive step forward in democratization and human rights. The party’s aim is to include human rights and workers’ rights in a democratization package. The party is expected to reduce the national election threshold, which currently stands at 10 percent, by a few points. The AKP also plans to democratize the law relating to political parties.

This, however, is a good thing. One of the reasons that the AKP has a 2/3 majority in parliament is this ridiculous 10% rule. The party got less than 50% of the votes during the last elections, but occupies approximately 66% of the seats in parliament nonetheless. The reason? The 10% rule.

Changing this will make it more difficult for the AKP to hold on to its solid majority and it enables smaller parties to participate in the political debate, to come up with laws, etc. etc. It gives more ‘minorities’ a vote. As such, this is a good development.

Parliamentary immunity is constantly being brought to the agenda by the opposition and sidelined by the AKP. It may now be back on the government’s menu, with a project for partial amendment. The AKP wants limited immunity for lawmakers and bureaucrats, and especially for the judiciary.

This is also important, all the more so because, well, those who know a tiny bit about Turkish politics know that there is a reason politicians created immunity for themselves.

Lets leave it at that.

So why the moderation?

A fresh drive for local elections will be the single most important event on which the AKP will likely concentrate its energy this fall. Elections will be held in March 2009, with Erdoğan looking to win cities like Izmir, Diyarbakır and Tunceli in particular. The AKP’s efforts will be channeled into these provinces. Moreover, he will sound the alarm for all party organization branches in September.

It’s all about the votes. The AKP hopes that it can get more votes in up and coming elections, thinking that these reforms will be embraced by most Turks. They also hope to get support out of sympathy (from religious conservatives especially, but also from others). It has to be kept in mind that the AKP has a long term plan for Turkey. They want to Islamize the country slowly. The court case may have taught Erdogan et al. a different lesson than most hoped; not that they should not Islamize the country, but that they should do so slower and more carefully.

After all, the longer they are in power, the more likely it is that they will take over institutions, bureaucracies, courts, universities, the police, and, yes, the military. And once they take over those institutions it will be more easy to push through Islamic laws.