There’s been a decent amount of coverage here at Poligazette over the statements by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki and Iraq withdrawal in general this weekend. On Saturday, I made an entry expressing my thoughts on the statements by Maliki, but moreso on the Bush administration’s “time horizons” (which appears to be an actual phrase). Michael van der Galien noted on Sunday that an Iraqi spokeman said that Maliki was misunderstood. Today, he called out liberals for claiming that Maliki’s statements equate an endorsement for Barack Obama’s Iraq plan.

However, what there hasn’t been at this site is a full roundup of what is essentially flip-flopping coming from Iraq. After the jump, I’ll list all the quotes by Maliki (including the NYT translation of his quote in Der Spiegel) and the various Iraqi government spokesmen. Then I’ll propose why both McCain and Obama might end up being right on an endgame for Iraq.

The Volleyball Game

It all started with the reporting by the media of the quote in the Der Spiegel interview:

SPIEGEL: Would you hazard a prediction as to when most of the US troops will finally leave Iraq?

Maliki: As soon as possible, as far as we’re concerned. U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama talks about 16 months. That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes.

There was a question for a little while about whether Der Spiegel may have removed a line in the middle clarifying that the 16 month plan would only take place dependent upon conditions on the ground, but Der Spiegel is standing by their translation.

Whatever the case, more than 12 hours later, a spokeman for Maliki clarified the statement, stating that Maliki was “were misunderstood, mistranslated and not conveyed accurately.”

Government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said the possibility of troop withdrawal was based on the continuance of security improvements, echoing statements that the White House made Friday after a meeting between al-Maliki and U.S. President Bush.

Politico’s Ben Smith and Talking Points Memo’s Josh Marshall says the spokesman’s clarification came via CENTCOM. Some bloggers quickly picked up on this, but neither Smith nor Marshall actually give a link to anything that would allow me to confirm this further. So, take it as you will. At the moment, it’s on my “non-verifiable” wall. Also, whether or not the Bush administration pressured Maliki’s and his team to backtrack on his statement is also up for debate.

Then we come to today, where the New York Times was able to obtain the audio from the interview and use their own translators. They came up with pretty much the same statement, with a few changes:

The following is a direct translation from the Arabic of Mr. Maliki’s comments by The Times: “Obama’s remarks that — if he takes office — in 16 months he would withdraw the forces, we think that this period could increase or decrease a little, but that it could be suitable to end the presence of the forces in Iraq.”

He continued: “Who wants to exit in a quicker way has a better assessment of the situation in Iraq.”

That’s two translations, pretty much the same, of what Maliki said. Yet, the game isn’t over. The NYTimes translation pretty much confirms the statements made in the interview. Remember that spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh has already made a clarification. Now see what he’s saying today after Barack Obam met with Maliki:

“We are hoping that in 2010 that combat troops will withdraw from Iraq,” spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said after Obama met with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki - who has struggled for days to clarify Iraq’s position on a possible timetable for a U.S. troop pullout.

So, there it is. I think that’s a pretty comprehensive summary of the political volleyball game that went on over the weekend and today. Now, based on all the statements, I think this situation could end up a win for John McCain and Barack Obama.

Why McCain is Right

Consider that McCain has always been for staying in Iraq as long until “the job” is complete. He’s gotten big political points by being the cheerleader of a surge that has helped keep down violence (though I don’t think more troops is the whole story). Then Saturday, the Sunnis rejoined the government. So, military gains plus a seeming political reconciliation makes it look pretty good for McCain. The surge is, in essence, McCain’s biggest strength of the Iraq issue.

However, he’s been very weak on future plans for involvement, beyond the misinterpreted “100 years” statement. Now, I’m not saying I’m a master war planner like David Petraeus, but it seems pretty clear to me that any general and their Commander-in-Chief needs to have some idea of what the future will hold, and a contingency plan or two in case that vision goes south. To his credit, the surge and the Awakening Councils (I’ll explain my issue with them later) have provided much needed security. However, now McCain, as the possible next CiC, needs to have some sort of plan. Unfortunately, he really doesn’t seem to have one - except to continue according to conditions on the ground.

Ali al-Dabbagh’s Saturday clarification, and the statements made today would seem to support McCain’s position.

Why Obama is Right

Obama, on the other hand, has always been the cheerleader for withdrawals. He had big political points before the surge by stating that it wasn’t working. Then conditions on the ground changed, and even Obama is admitting he was wrong about that. However, he will probably cite these successes as evidence that the time for withdrawal is near. Obama has been a big voice for redeploying troops back to Afghanistan.

Where Obama is weak is basically what I’ll call the “what if” factor. Obama says that the time for redeployment is now, or, by 16 months from now. However, I think McCain puts it nicely when he says this:

But he cautioned that the improved conditions in Iraq could be “reversed very easily” and he warned against shifting resources too dramatically from Iraq to Afghanistan. “You can’t choose to lose a war in Iraq, in my view, in order to win in Afghanistan,” he said.

I noted this myself in my Saturday entry. If the Sunni block in government feels Maliki is becoming favoritist toward Shiite militas, or if clerics such as Muqtada al-Sadr feel that things are going south, the violence could resurge. It is here that Obama has no plan.

However, for now, he can feel comfortable in knowing that he is supported by the idea that, given current conditions, Iraq would feel comfortable with a withdrawal by 2010.

So, McCain and Obama can feel comfortable in knowing that they’re both right on something.