The Observer has a fascinating article up about both Senator John McCain and Senator Barack Obama. The main point of the author: both ran as mavericks - in one way or another - but both are now becoming ‘normal,’ almost traditional candidates. Why? Because you can’t be the rebel… “when you’re the nominee.”

Both nominees basically ran against the most powerful people or groups in their party and their political style. Democrat Barack Obama had to fight against the Clintons - the most powerful Democratic family in the last two decades. He did so by both distancing himself somewhat from Bill Clinton’s record and legacy and by saying that he would break with ‘Clintonian politics.’ Clintonian politics, of course, meaning ‘divisive politics.’

For a long time he ran as the Anti-Clinton candidate. And, since he was the Anti-Clinton candidate, he also ran against the ‘establishment’ since the Clintons were the establishment.

He was a rebel.

John McCain ran as the Senator who always voted his conscience. Unlike every other Republican, he was willing to vote against the party line, even if doing so would cost him popular support. He also ran as the candidate who, very similar to Obama, had enough of the overheated partisan debate in America. McCain was a different kind of Republican; a moderate, someone who’s not impressed with the religious conservative wing of his party, and someone who’s more than willing to work with Democrats. He was, he said, a Republican who believes that global warming is all too real, and who believes that the government should do something to protect the environment.

This put him at odds with the Republican establishment. The establishment did not want to speak about global warming. The establishment was also not fond of working with Democrats. Furthermore, the establishment was greatly influenced by the religious right. The establishment was strongly and intolerantly anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage, and so on. McCain was not; he was a moderate in most ways. A hawk when it came to Iraq and Iran, but on virtually every other issue, his style was conciliatory. He even had the guts to call the powerful religious right ‘agents to intolerance’ once.

In short, McCain too was a rebel.

But now, everything has changed. John McCain and Barack Obama are no longer running against the establishment for they have become it. They are the establishment now. Especially Obama, but also McCain, is busy building a big organization, which will influence the Democratic Party for years to come. Obama and McCain are now the leader of their party.

And then what? The two rebels square off. The two men, who ran as rebels, have suddenly become the establishment. This changes everything. Suddenly, the race is not between an establishment figure and a rebel figure any longer.

Of course that does not mean that both will not try to make the other look like the establishment figure, while portraying himself as the rebel. Obama will argue that McCain = Bush. McCain, on the other hand, will argue that Obama is an old school, elitist liberal ala Al Gore and John Kerry.

But most voters will see through that pose. They will understand that both men are now the establishment. And both men have to deal with that knowledge and perception.

What’s more, in order to win in November, both candidates have to appear stable and trustworthy… and both have to appeal to their respective bases. This means that both ‘rebels’ have to distance themselves somewhat from their ‘rebel policies.’ They suddenly have to… become rebels who rebel no more.

Both men have comprised and flip-flopped. Why? Because doing was necessary politically. Both men are no longer the ‘maverick’ they once were. They are now… normal politicians. Both are, to a degree, different than their main partisan competitors, but in order to get the support from the supporters of these former rivals, both McCain and Obama have to reach out to them and… perhaps some of their policies. As if that’s not enough, they will also - at the same time - have to reach out independents. So; in order to energize their base they need to propagate traditional policies and views… but at the same time they have to compromise when being stubborn will cost them with independents.

A balancing act.

Now, in the nomination process of their parties, both men took positions that may not be welcomed by independents; in order to win, again, they had to shift to the left (Obama) and to the right (McCain). They started out as rebels… but changed into traditional politicians quite fast. And now they have to reach out to independents. This means they have to, once again, flip-flop. They now, again, have to advocate policies that could put them at odds with the base of their respective party.

But that’s what all politicians do. You can’t possibly call people who do that ‘rebels.’ First they could pretend that they rebelled because their conscience told them to do so. Now they can’t do so any longer. Voters aren’t stupid. They will see through it. This means that both men will be considered ‘traditional politicians.’