Shiites Across Iraq Protest U.S. Presence
Iraqi Shiites are, once again, protesting the US presence in their country: ‘Thousands of followers of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr protested Friday in Shiite enclaves across Iraq against plans for a long-term security pact that would allow for an extended U.S. military presence in the country.’
“No, no to America. No, no to the occupation,” demonstrators waving Iraqi flags and banners chanted after afternoon prayers in Sadr’s Baghdad stronghold of Sadr City. “Yes, yes, Moqtada. Long live al-Sadr.”
Some protesters carried pictures of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki dressed as former president Saddam Hussein. One group burned an effigy of Maliki, then danced and stomped on it, as Iraqi government soldiers kept their distance.
The protests highlighted Sadr’s still-formidable power and popularity among poor Shiites, even as the Shiite-led Iraqi government, backed by U.S. and British forces, has waged a campaign in recent months to weaken his movement and undermine his leadership credentials.
There are two questions that need to be raised:
1. How strong is Al-Sadr?
2. How popular are his views against a US presence in Iraq?
Well, it seems that his views are popular… at least among Shiites. And why not? Shiites form the majority in Iraq. If full democracy is implemented (meaning: one person, one vote, and no limits on what the government can and can’t do), Shiites will set the agenda. Since that’s not very good for the US nor for the West - a Shiite Iraq will undoubtedly quickly become buddies with Iran - they try to give Sunnis much influence in the government (more than their numbers would dictate perhaps).
As to how strong he is… well, he fought against the government, and he was severely weakened. On the other hand, the Washington Post quotes many Iraqi soldiers, who are Shiite, and who support Al-Sadr.
The reality of the situation is that the US cannot withdraw all its troops from Iraq. Doing so would be irresponsible. Whether Shiites support a long-term US presence or not is, to a degree at least, irrelevant. The starting point should be a long-term presence, after that the West and Iraq have to try to find a way to satisfy Shiite leaders in one way or another (in other respects).
The question is, how popular can Moctada become in the West, especially in America. He needs to win the war of popular opinion in the West to succeed in Iraq. He is the most popular and polarizing figure among the Shiites but his followers are poor and disenfranchised. Iran doesn’t like him. The Shiite power structure doesn’t like him. The American Army doesn’t like him. That’s a lot of domestic negatives to overcome. He needs Western celebrities to visit and patronize him but he’s not really that warm and fuzzy. He needs World leaders to believe that he will support a tolerant and progressive Iraqi society but there is no evidence that he will. He needs better and more weapons but he has nowhere to get them from. The idea that his faction is trained and armed by the Iranians is a myth. The only thing Moctada has going for him is that the Bush appointed military and diplomatic occupiers are corrupt and inept. If the Dems win in November they are likely to stabilize the country inadvertently, just trying to get out.