The GOP Realizes It Is in Trouble
Filed under: 2008 elections — Michael van der Galien, Editor-in-Chief on May 15, 2008 @ 4:22 pm CEST
One of the most amusing aspects of analyzing politics is that politicians are usually the last to know what voters want. For some reason, the average politician is completely tonedeaf for the will of ‘the people.’ Case in point: the GOP is panicking because it suddenly realizes that Republicans are very unpopular right now, mainly because of George W. Bush’s unpopularity.
When did Republican leaders start to panic? Right. When a Democrat won the election in Mississippi recently.
It was the third Democratic victory in a Republican district… and it caused Republican leaders to have a heart attack. Republicans thought, some at least, that Barack Obama’s liberalism and success for the Democratic nomination would hurt conservative Democrats in Republican districts. The last weeks, however, tell an entirely different story.
The tell the story of voters fed up with Republicans. They are not so much in favor of Democrats, it seems to me, they have simply had it with George W. Bush and many believe that the Republican Congress (until 2006) performed horribly. Whatever Bush wanted, Congress gave to him.
Then there are a quite unpopular war, a horrendous deficit, economic problems, and many political scandals and… one quickly realizes that only a politically blind Republican is surprised or shocked by the Democratic victories.
Although one could very well argue that many Democrats are too progressive one has to acknowledge that Republicans have not proven themselves to be good leaders (for America) in recent years. At least not on a national level.
1 C Stanley
May 15, 2008 @ 4:47 pm CESTThe big debate that needs to happen in the party though is whether the voters are rejecting Republicans because the voters really want policy changes (which might suggest that the country is becoming less conservative) or whether it’s a rejection of ‘business as usual’. There’s been so much incompetence, corruption, and lack of oversight, that Republican voters are just fed up. Combine that with some smart Democratic leadership (yes, occasionally it happens! LOL) with Dems running candidates who are quite conservative for their party- and the voters feel they have a choice who isn’t too far from their own values and views but offers change from the old guard.
What the GOP needs to do is find new, highly competent candidates who have clean records- that’s how they’ll reassure the voters that they got the message of ‘06.
2 superdestroyer
May 15, 2008 @ 5:12 pm CESTC Stanley,
The problem with finding new candidates is that the Bush Administration has basically destroyed the bench. Look at how many Democratic candidates came out of the Clinton Administration. Yet, no one who served in the Bush Administration is going to be able to run for office. The same goes for former Congressional staffers.
Besides, the candidates might be competent but the Republicans have no crediblity when it comes to running on conservative issues. Can a Republican candidates be taken serious if they talk about cutting the budget?
3 C Stanley
May 15, 2008 @ 5:32 pm CESTActually, superdestroyer, you are arguing for my point, not against it. That’s why I said that NEW candidates must be fielded, ASAP. Is that going to happen in time for November’s election- no, obviously not- so this process needs to have the next cycle as its target. Meanwhile, damage control is in order, to figure out which seats are in danger and pay attention to the local issues that are affecting the incumbent’s support. It’s too late really to pretend that some people haven’t been too closely associated with Bush- but play up the positive factors that led the people of that district to elect that person to begin with, to marginalize the negative Bush effect as much as possible. It’s definitely not going to be a great year- but the goal should be to prevent a Democratic supermajority. And yes, I do think they need to hammer home the spending problems- "It’s the spending, stupid" should be the motto. I agree that some incumbents don’t have much credibility left on that, but it still should be the party credo.
Also, don’t overlook the fact that state government is a great incubator for future party leaders, and we do have some very good solid GOP governors- Jindal, Palin, Rell, Sanford, Pawlenty. I think that’s where the future of the party lies.
4 kritter
May 15, 2008 @ 6:55 pm CESTSo, C Stan- If it were your choice, would you vote for a Democrat who embodied your values, or stick with the discredited old guard?
5 kritter
May 15, 2008 @ 7:03 pm CESTI’m thinking that the GOP believed they were defeated in ‘06 because too many of their members were tainted by scandal, because the war was unpopular and going badly, and because they were known as a "Do Nothing Party". Even loyalists were annoyed with their overspending.
Now that the surge has quelled the violence in Iraq, the scandals have been suppressed by numerous delays by the Justice Dept, and the Democrats also have been tarred with the "Do Nothing" label, Republicans convinced themselves they were poised for a comeback. But many voters have finally realized that the GOP is out of touch with the average citizen and his problems. That is why many are flocking to Obama, whose charisma allows him to connect across party-lines. Remember the Reagan Democrats?
6 C Stanley
May 15, 2008 @ 8:05 pm CESTSo, C Stan- If it were your choice, would you vote for a Democrat who embodied your values, or stick with the discredited old guard?
If I believed that one really did, I suppose I would- but I’ve yet to find myself in that situation.
7 C Stanley
May 15, 2008 @ 8:07 pm CESTRemember the Reagan Democrats?
But most of the Reagan Democrats were the white blue collars, who are NOT flocking to Obama.
8 kritter
May 16, 2008 @ 1:25 pm CESTBut, my point is that Reagan offered a message of hope that encouraged Democrats to jump ship. He was able to connect with the average citizen and convince them he understood their concerns.
Obamicans are jumping off the Titanic that is the GOP in the same way Democrats abandoned Jimmy Carter in the days of double digit inflation, the hostage crisis and long gas lines.