West Virginia Predictions
Today is the West Virginia primary, and I would like to hear your predicitons. Except this time, I’m less interested in numers than media discourse. Clinton will destroy Obama in this state, she consistently polls around 40 points above him (personally I’m predicting some 35 points difference and somewhat lower turnout compared to other states). It will be a massacre, no question.
But what will the media do? Will they acknowledge this as a “last throes” moment, or will they try, because of their eternal love of the horserace, try to push a new narrative whereby Clinton has a chance for a comeback from waaaaay behind?
Personally, I’m going to ignore previous experience and bet on the media having good judgement in this case. They will breathlessly report the numbers of course, they will beg to be reported. The margin of victory will be huge for Clinton. I think the media narrative will generally carry the thesis that yes Clinton won bigtime, but that it’s probably too little too late.
On the other hand there will be a lot of disussion about blue-collar voters (the new code for low education whites, the same way “urban” means black) not trusting Obama, and what that could mean for him in the general election (which I think the media will still presume as him being the candidate for). It’s a valid concern, especially because in American politics, apparently these voters are the “real Americans” (more on the political taboo of acknowledging the highly educated as Real American™ in another post) and of course because they are very very numerous, not a demographic you can afford to write off (neither are blacks, if you’re a Democrat, but that hasn’t been discussed in this cycle).
So my prediction is on the media NOT trying to jumpstart the horserace but spending a lot of time discussing electability.
You?
OK, here’s a prediction: Clinton wins big. But not by anything like 40%, or even 35%.
Since Obama does substantially better than the polls had been predicting, the media talks about the huge strides he made, rather than the fact of the loss. Another triumph for managing expectations — but not for the Clinton campaign.
Further, the media expresses great surprise at the fact that the way delegates are selected means that Clinton comes out of West Virginia having made in minimal dent in Obama’s delegate lead. (Duh!)
Attention then returns to the on-going stream of super-delegates declaring for Obama.