3 Economic Plans
Filed under: 2008 elections, Economy, United States — Michael van der Galien, Editor-in-Chief on April 27, 2008 @ 4:15 pm CEST
The New York Times looks at the economic plans / proposals of the three leading candidates (John McCain, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton). The conclusion: ‘The Republican and Democratic presidential candidates differ strikingly in their approaches to taxes and spending, but their fiscal plans have at least one thing in common: each could significantly swell the budget deficit and increase the national debt by trillions of dollars, according to tax and budget experts.’
The reasons reflect the ideological leanings of the candidates, with Senator John McCain proposing tax cuts that go beyond President Bush’s and the Democrats advocating programs costing hundreds of billions of dollars. But for fiscal experts concerned with the deficit, both approaches are worrisome.
With the national debt soaring to $9.1 trillion from $5.6 trillion at the start of 2001, in part because of the Iraq war and Mr. Bush’s tax cuts, a crucial question about the candidates to succeed him is “whether they are helping to fill the hole or make it deeper,” said Robert L. Bixby, executive director of the Concord Coalition, a nonpartisan organization that advocates deficit reduction. “With the proposals they have on the table, it looks to me like all three would make it deeper.”
Of course, the three candidates aren’t happy with the assessment, but if you shouldn’t trust one (or three in this case) person when it comes to policy proposals and its effects, its the person who does the proposal. Yes, this assessment could be wrong, more research would be handy, but the independent experts get the benefit of the doubt. Not the campaigns.
And, it has to be said, that the article should worry lots of Americans, especially readers of this blog, most of whom are centrist or even conservative when it comes to economic policies. With that I mean, that many readers of this blog seem to believe - like I do - that responsible economic policies are of immense importance.
According to the experts cited in the NYT article, none of the three candidates are economically responsible, however.
Mr. McCain’s plan would appear to result in the biggest jump in the deficit, independent analyses based on Congressional Budget Office figures suggest. A calculation done by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center in Washington found that his tax and budget plans, if enacted as proposed, would add at least $5.7 trillion to the national debt over the next decade.
Fiscal monitors say it is harder to compute the effect of the Democratic candidates’ measures because they are more intricate. They estimate that, even taking into account that there are some differences between the proposals by Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, the impact of either on the deficit would be less than one-third that of the McCain plan.
The centerpiece of Mr. McCain’s economic plan is a series of tax cuts that would largely benefit corporations and the wealthy. He is calling for cutting corporate taxes by $100 billion a year. Eliminating the alternative minimum tax, which was created to apply to wealthy taxpayers but now also affects some in the middle class, would reduce revenues by $60 billion annually. He also would double the exemption that can be claimed for dependents, which would cost the government $65 billion.
It’s unbelievable, but it seems that - once again - the Republican is the most irresponsible candidate of the three. Obama’s and Clinton’s plans are, obviously, problematic, but compared to McCain’s (and from a deficit perspective) they’re heavenly.
Of course:
Some conservative economists say that increased deficits in the short run are an acceptable tradeoff for tax cuts that they say will promote economic growth in the long run. And many liberal economists say that some of the Democratic spending proposals, like addressing the affordability of health care or improving education, are long-overdue investments that pay off handsomely even if they entail more red ink.
To me, the first reasoning has more validity to it than the second one, but one has to wonder when they will stop passing the buck. Future generations will have to pay off debts - the deficit will be their problem. Your children will be the ones forced to suffer because of the deficit created by you. That’s something to keep in mind, isn’t it?
And since when is it conservative to cut taxes, while letting the deficit grow? That has never been a conservative approach.
After having spend a page looking at what’s wrong with McCain’s plan, the NYT explains some of the things wrong with the progressive economic plans; sure, they would result in a less big deficit than the Republican plans, but:
Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton have acknowledged that their various new programs would be costly but have outlined how to pay for them. But some fiscal monitors say they may be relying on overly rosy projections of how much savings their proposals would actually yield.
O, and they would significantly increase the size of the government, which isn’t exactly something to be ignored either.
Mrs. Clinton has calculated that her universal health care plan would cost about $110 billion a year, while Mr. Obama’s somewhat more modest proposal would cost up to $65 billion annually, his advisers say. Both candidates have also talked of new government incentives and investment to encourage the development of alternative sources of energy, which would cost about $15 billion a year.
The Democratic candidates have suggested that they could finance these and other programs by allowing parts of the Bush tax cuts to expire. That, however, ignores projections of the Congressional Budget Office, which has already assigned those savings to deficit reduction…
But they would retain those reductions meant to benefit poor and “middle-class” families, which they defined as the 97 percent or so of the population that lives on less than $250,000 a year, and they would count the estimated $50 billion generated by higher taxes on the wealthy as new revenue.
“Remember, you can only use this money once,” said Mr. Bixby of the Concord Coalition, “and with all the Bush tax cuts scheduled to expire, that money is already scheduled to come into the Treasury. But on the campaign trail, this has become a source of new spending.”
On the spending side, Mr. Obama has argued that ending the Iraq war is one way to pay for some of the new programs, including creating a national infrastructure investment bank and increasing the foreign aid budget. But such savings, which Mrs. Clinton does not count on, would not immediately make their way into the Treasury, and some experts say it is not clear whether they would be sufficient to finance all the programs Mr. Obama has enumerated.
Len Burman, director of the Tax Policy Center also reacted to the promise of the Democratic candidates (no new taxes for the middle class): hearing such a promise “makes you very sad.” “First of all, we don’t have enough revenue coming in to pay our bills.” In addition the notion that all the revenue that would be lost in a middle-class tax freeze can be made up by higher taxes on the wealthy “is not tenable.”
Read it and weep.








1 C Stanley
April 27, 2008 @ 4:50 pm CESTI agree with the general concept that independent analysts and experts can be given more benefit of the doubt for being impartial (though that isn’t always the case- just because a think tank describes itself as nonpartisan doesn’t make that so, and even nonpartisans can have a stake in pushing a particular agenda that they favor), it’s still important to examine rebuttals by the campaign to see if they can point out inaccuracies in the analysis.
In this case, here is the rebuttal by McCain’s economic advisor:
http://taxvox.taxpolicycenter.org/blog/_archives/2008/4/20/3650536.html
It seems he makes some good points- that the tax policy center scored McCain on a proposal that he hasn’t specifically endorsed (it was one of Thompson’s proposals and McCain agrees in principle with it but hasn’t made it part of his platform) and they score his repeal of the AMT at it’s full cost without acknowledging that the status quo is the patch which exempts people each year from paying the AMT. IOW, the status quo is what McCain’s proposal would make permanent, yet they score this as a new cost which would add to the deficit.
2 Michael Merritt
April 27, 2008 @ 11:12 pm CESTWe’ve got one candidate who wants to continue the war, and two who want to end it but then use that money for something else.
I can’t wait for a candidate who says these two things:
1) End the war
2) Give at least some of the money being used for it back to the people. Not just redirect it.
3 Tully
April 28, 2008 @ 12:39 am CESTjust because a think tank describes itself as nonpartisan doesn’t make that so
Christine, almost ALL "think tanks" claim to be "non-partisan." A few even actually are. But that 501(c)3 thing pretty much requires that they make the non-partisanship claim if they want to stay tax-deductible for their "sponsors."
4 kreiz
April 28, 2008 @ 5:08 am CESTI’m skeptical of the uncritical acceptance of the Obama and Clinton health care numbers- especially in light of the notorious cost underestimation of other federal health programs (Medicare most blatantly). It’s a classic Trojan Horse approach- underestimate cost, get a program approved, deal with cost escalation later. Frankly, this happened in the Iraq War too- had anyone given accurate cost estimates, we would’ve been shocked.
5 Interested
April 28, 2008 @ 7:36 am CESTThat is exactly where the problems lie in these assessments of what may happen in the future. McCain’s approach could very well end up being much more efficient and economically viable than either Dem’s approach if spending is held in check. With the Dem’s we know they will be spending; McCain we will have to find out although given the latest pork reports McCain has a dramatic lead there.
Although at this time I’d rather tax cuts perm than any additional tax cuts - at least on the Federal level. Many states could use some serious examination.
6 Tully
April 28, 2008 @ 10:51 pm CESTI just wish they’d get the spending under control–but I know that the majority of federal spending is "program" spending, and as such tough to do much about.
Discretionary spending is not the biggest part of the budget.
7 C Stanley
April 28, 2008 @ 10:57 pm CESTWhere’s Perot when we need him? It would be great if a candidate would show some charts to the public again to underline the need for spending to be reined in. It’s not that hard to understand, but few people seem to grasp the fact that our entitlement programs are on a collision course with reality since we can’t grow the economy nearly as fast as the growth in the mandatory spending that’s written into the federal budget.
8 PatHMV
April 28, 2008 @ 11:18 pm CESTCutting tax RATES does not imply cutting tax REVENUES. If cutting taxes increases the tax revenue generated, isn’t that a good thing for everybody? That’s what has happened after the Bush tax cuts in 2003. Tax revenue plunged as a result of economy-wide difficulties which hit just after the Clinton term ended and were exacerbated by 9/11. Shortly after the Bush tax cuts, revenue started to rise again, and quickly equalled the tax revenue which was coming in before the cuts. I haven’t looked at the numbers lately, but I suspect it’s still growing. That’s very conservative.
9 PatHMV
April 28, 2008 @ 11:37 pm CESTI’ve got to admit, though, that Duff’s proposal is not a new-fangled one. Looks like the Allies considered it back in 1919.
Oh, and there’s even a patent, issued in 1997, for a computerized system to settle transactions in gold or other commodities.
Oh, and let me say, too, that gold is both functional (in electronics goods, in particular) and, well, pretty. Why in the world should we tie it all up in deep bank vaults? I say FREE GOLD! Liberate gold from the shackles of imprisonment at Fort Knox. Let gold be gold. Gold is to be given to your girfriend, not hoarded in dank caves.