Turkey To Self-Destruct?
Mehmet Ali Birand writes: ‘The other day, I was discussing the recent developments in Turkey with a European friend, who’s an expert on Turkey. I haven’t asked for his permission, so I won’t give his name. I can say, however, that he’s one of the foremost names in European politics.’
“Recent developments in Turkey carry the signs of a famous strategy applied during the Cold War,” he started by saying. The moment I heard these words, I knew what he was talking about and also how right he was.
It is well known to my generation: North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) used to have a strategy based on nuclear horror equilibrium. It was called MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction).
This was the logic behind it: It was a multistage strategy…
A look at the recent events in Turkey shows that this is another version of the MAD strategy.
The relations between the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the nationalists indicate that someone will soon press the MAD button. It’s better to say this today than beat our breasts tomorrow.
This is how the scenario goes: The AKP provoked the nationalists by promoting the Islamic headscarf, turban. In other words, the first threshold was exceeded. Now, the nationalists have pointed all their nuclear weapons at the AKP.As long as the AKP refuses to take a step back in the turban issue or (for example) to show some good will by changing some cabinet ministers to allay the fears and the suspicions of the public, or better said, if the AKP shows that it is determined not to back down, the Nationalists will fire their nuclear missiles. This nuclear attack against the AKP will have an enormous destructive power. The shock caused by the closure of the party and the ban of its leaders and prominent politicians from politics will entail incredible turmoil. Nobody stops to think what nuclear clouds will do to this country, in other words, what the day-after will be like. Armed with a fool’s courage, we are playing the waiting game. If the AKP doesn’t change its attitude, the red button will be pushed and the “destruct Turkey strategy” will take over.
Although I am less pessimistic about the future of Turkey than Birand is - he’s a Turk, and therefore a bit more emotional - I do share many of his concerns and agree with most he’s saying. The AK Parti - if Erdogan et alia truly care about what’s best for their country - should take a step back. It’s crystal clear that the country’s Kemalists aren’t going to allow them to Islamize Turkey. At this moment, the country is in a political chaos. The AKP needs to calm down, apologize and withdraw some of the reforms they have pushed through and tell their religiously fundamentalist supporters that other reforms won’t happen, simply because the country as a whole don’t agree with them.
But what I’ve seen from Erdogan in the past couple of months, and even years, gives me the distinct impression that this is not how Erdogan operates. He probably thinks that it’s now or never.
So he’s probably going ahead, and forcing Kemalists to get rid of the AK Parti led government. Which will lead to more chaos, and more instability.
O, and to a weaker Lira.
When I went to Turkey last year, 1 euro was 1.67 lira. I’ll go back to Turkey 1.5 weeks from now, and at this moment 1 euro is 2.104 lira. That’s good news for me, but it’s bad news for Turkey; it’s a sign that the political instability is having an impact on the economy.
Will Turkey self-destruct? No. There will be a lot of chaos - if Erdogan doesn’t take a step back - and the economy will suffer… but in the end, Turkey will recover. It’s a country of the future (if led by the right people at least), and I’m still quite sure that those who invest in Turkey today, will be very well off financially 20 years from now.
Birand is not exactly a loved person in Kemalist circles. He writes stuff that everyone already knows. And this is no-brainer to anyone who knows about Turkish politics. I think Erdogan is thinking that his party’s closing is not going to be realized in the long trial process. They have a couple of options till we come to the point of banning some of AKP’s parliaments (72 in total). They will probably attempt to change the law so that it’d not be possible to close a party by the juducial powers. They’ll need ultra-nationalists-soft islamists (ulkucu) MHP party’s support to do that, and probably a few ministrial posts given to MHP, this could be achievable. Who knows what is in his street-witted mind as-to how he and his party plans to cope with the situation. My problem is with the numbers: The real core islamists were much less than 10% before AKP’s reign. By abusing faith and using it for their political benefit, and promising false hopes they were able to get the votes of less educated villagers, people living in the outskirts of the big cities, pinky liberals (libosh) and pious Kurdish southeast, ramped it up to 20-25%. They got the other 20% in the last election as extra votes simply due to the lack of other viable alternatives that people could rely on to keep the status-quo, mostly economically. In fact, the quasi-stability that these street-jerks created in people’s mind is very volatile and it is a total lie. They privitazed many state-owned factories, power plants, chemical houses, sold infra-structures, sold properties to foreigners disproportinately. As a result, a lot of foreign investment poured in. It is a double edge sword what they did. Living off of foreign investment money requires every indicator to be stable and it is usually very short-lived and volatile. It is like sitting on a rock whose base is subject to quakes, and eventually it’ll thumble down. What you are experiencing as Euro’s value vs Turkish lira goes up high in relatively short period, is exactly what I am trying to explain as the sensitivity of the Turkish market to every economical disturbance in the world. US dollar loses its value everywhere else but in Turkey. This illusion of AKP’s that painted people’s eyes with fake economical stability is not going to last long and only then we’ll witness the decline in their extra 20% voting constituency. I am only optimistic that this new era is going to shake Turkey’s left and right to revitalize its base and force them to find able, young leaders to survive and then for cleaning the mess of AKP’s smearing religion into public life.
Judging from the Turkish mindset (that is prone not to compromise), neither side is going to cede an inch. Eventually, this tension will reach a bioling point and the scenario Birand points out will most likely happen.
The silver lining of his projection is that the sad state of political affairs in Turkey has the potential to change for the better once the the "nuclear" dust clouds subside…sometimes things need to be totally deconstructed so that they can be rebuild in a better light.
In other words, if Turkey is to move forward (toward EU standards, for example), it’s intitutions will have to be destroyed first (both the Kemalist and the Islamist intitutions). Following that, an opportunity will come where Turkey can rebuild itself with institutions that will enable them to join the civilized world.
With that said, I hope for Turkey’s "destruction".
Sam, would you care to list those Kemalist and Islamist institutions that need ‘to be destroyed’?
As for “US dollar los[ing] its value everywhere else but in Turkey…” Does that mean Turkey leads the US in two areas now? The other area being belief in creationism…
Kemalist institutions: The Army, the school systems, the courts, the media, the constitution…the institutions that caused three military coups, uphold article 301, propogate false history, trample human rights etc…
Islamist institutions: Organized Islam and religious activism in Turkey are pushing Turkey to become a nation of Islamic chauvinists… the kind of chauvinists that find no shame in raping and murdering an Italian hitchhiker just because she is not a muslim.
…as for you statement about the dollar. What does that have to do with the discussion?
Anyway, if you want to stick your head in the sand and believe that Turkey is not in serious trouble, then that’s your perrogative.
Sam, by the way, is Armenian. His dislike for Turkey suddenly becomes clear, doesn’t it.
I can’t comment on how right or wrong the author is about the hostilities between the parties involved, but isn’t that a twisted interpretation of MAD? Because the whole point of MAD was that neither party would push the red button because each knew that destroying the other would also mean self destruction.
Michael, my bad!
CS, you’re right about the twistedness at hand. The author in question, imho, is one of those who’s got no clue (a European liberal). Not that he is a bad guy; I actually like him, flaws and all.
All it takes is a few hotheads to push that button…Turkey has plenty of those on both sides.
Sooner or later, the situation will reach critical mass. However, if by some chance it does not, Turkey will not fair any better as the status quo will remain causing Turkey twist in the political wind between the dark forces of Kemalism and Islamism.
So lets not take the troll seriously.
"Sam, by the way, is Armenian. His dislike for Turkey suddenly becomes clear, doesn’t it."
If I am Armenian than you, Michael, are on the Turkish government’s payroll.
Whenever something big like this happens poor people suffer. Sam mentioned "Kemalist institutions should be destroyed" does not make any sense in the way that it takes time and money to put something inplace of them especially the army which we don’t have now. So I can say after anykind of destruction we may not be able to recover. As a major path on oil trasport and the only stable democratic country in the region, I am worried the affect of this kind of instability. Already gas price increased to 115$ . So what could be the way to stop two sides pussing that red button that can start the total destruction?
Yes Umit, it is the people that will suffer. Corrupt institutions always lead to that. But hopefully, the suffering that is almost sure to happen in Turkey, will not be in vain.
Turkey will be able to recover. It will just be in a different (hopefully a more righteous) form. Listen, if a nation like Armenia can suffer a Genocide and regain its footing to form a new state, Turkey can do the same.
Sam, why don’t you concentrate on the corruption in Armenia and Armenian politics? Remember Armenia just had an election, in which ballot box stuffing was the national sport, and after which the state blatently censored all media, killed protestors in the street and gave up all pretense of democracy.
And, may I remind all that this is nothing compared to what Turks have been through before?
We will survive this Sam because our people are resilient and strong-willed, and we will emerge from this as indpendent and more powerful, both economically and politically, than ever before. It’s what happened last time.
There was no genocide, that’s one. Secondly, Armenia is not a country you should be proud of. Thirdly, Turkey is already a great state, and will be a great state in the future.
Unlike Armenia, which is a country ruled by corrupt dictators and mafiosis.
Sam,
You should invite Michael to Armenia. He just might like the people and the country!
Michael, the Armenians are very hospitable, the scenery is magnificent, and the girls are very fetching.
Sam you brought the geonocide into this debate, otherwise why would anyone divert the subject here to Armenians.
Read your own blogs (#12) where you are "spewing" your genocide claim first time before nobody. Talking about hatred, in your blog (#2) you said you were hoping for Turkey’s destruction.
Bring up both your "Genocide claims" and "hatred towards Turkey" in relevant discussion topics. I think I and other bloggers here have written extensively on those topics before.
JudasPreist,
My hope for Turkey’s "destruction" is aimed at tearing down the corrupt institutions that have cause Turkey to be run through the intimidation of a deep state couples with the ills of islamification.
…and as far as the Armenian Genocide is concerned, I brought it up not to debate it, but to show that a nation who wants to live, cannot be die. I brought it up to give Turkey heart, that all will not be lost once things come to an ugly head in Turkey.
Edited by MvdG: nice try.
Hahahahahaha.
That’s close to hilarious. Anyone who knows a little bit about the situation in that part of the world will be laughing their asses off.
Who do you think you’re talking to? People who don’t know anything about the region?
admin: I am sick of the vulgarities and threats from people who cannot disagree civilly. From now on, whenever this kind of tripe is posted, banning will take place immediately without notice or warnings and comments will just be deleted rather than edited. None of this ilk will get the benefit of even the slightest publicity. If you can disagree without cussing people out or threatening them or accusing them of crimes, go ahead and argue your point. If you cannot, you’re done here.
And quess who M.A. Birand was talking to…