One of the main reasons that I was hesitant to speak out positively about Kosovo’s independence is that I was afraid that many other separatist movements would follow Kosovo’s example and be encouraged by it. It seems that I’m far from the only one who fears this and it seems that I may have been right:

 In early 2008, the Basque terrorist organization ETA announced that it would make its future actions dependent on the situation in Kosovo. ETA’s goal is to liberate the Basque region from what it calls Spanish “occupiers” and to establish an independent, socialist Basque nation. It was established in 1959 as a military resistance group against Spanish dictator Francisco Franco, who had banned the use of the Basque language and done everything in his power to suppress the Basque minority. There are 3 million Basques today, 2.5 million of them living in the northwest Spanish Basque region and the rest in the southwestern tip of France. The conflict, however, has transpired mainly on Spanish soil.

Another minority group in Spain, the Catalans, also wants more than the autonomous status it was granted in 1978. About 7.2 million people live in the Catalan region in northeast Spain, which has the country’s strongest economy. Catalonia has had autonomous status since the 18th century. It wasn’t long ago that Josep-Lluís Carod-Rovira, the head of the Republican Left party and the deputy of regional President Jose Montilla, demanded a referendum on independence by 2014.

While Kosovo celebrated independence on Sunday, the same day brought new hope of reunification for Cyprus. In the Greek southern part of the island, President Tassos Papadopoulos, whose isolationist policy has seriously damaged relations with Turkish Cypriots in the north and with the European Union, was voted out of office. The candidates to succeed him have indicated a willingness to resume negotiations with the Turkish Cypriots, raising new hopes that reunification is possible.

The two ethnic groups on the sun-baked island have been separated since 1974. In 1983, the predominantly Turkish northern part of the island declared itself an independent state, the so-called Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. However Turkey is the only country that recognizes it.

This defiance could reinforce a tendency to emulate Kosovo and seek public recognition for independence for the north. The change in the administration could be coming at just the right point, in that it could help prevent this.

The independence of Kosovo is a precedent that all EU countries with an ethnic minority should pursue,” said Béla Markó, the chairman of the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR).

His words only confirmed the fears of the Romanian government that their country’s Hungarian minority could see the developments in Kosovo as a model for their own efforts to secure independence. In a special session, the Romanian parliament voted 357 to 27 to refuse to recognize an independent Kosovo. Romanian President Traian Basescu even characterized Kosovo’s declaration of independence as illegal.

Even before Kosovo declared independence, Bulgarian President Georgy Parvanov made one thing clear: Without a unified stance within the EU, his country would not recognize Kosovo’s independence. Only if it could be guaranteed that human rights would be protected in the new Balkan nation and the Ahtisaari plan would be implemented, would Bulgaria consider establishing diplomatic relations with Kosovo, Parvanov said.

Parvanov’s hesitation has a lot to do with the situation in his own country. By seceding from Serbia, Kosovo and its ethnic Albanian majority could encourage Bulgaria’s Turkish minority to do the same. About 700,000 Turks live in Bulgaria, and they even form a majority in many cities and regions in the country’s north.

Dora Bakoyannis, the Greek foreign minister, has also warned that Kosovo could become a “precedent” for Europe, and that its declaration of independence could send a signal to ethnic minorities in many European countries. If the European Union recognizes the secession of one ethnic group, Bakoyannis argued, perhaps it would have to do so repeatedly in the future…

But what happened to the mainly Turkish-speaking inhabitants of Western Thrace? They were granted special minority rights under the Treaty of Lausanne, signed three years later. As a result, lessons in Thracian schools are still conducted in Turkish, and the enclave’s residents are under special protection. Despite these special rights, there are tensions in the region, and the Thracian Turks have become a popular diplomatic pawn in negotiations with Istanbul.

For years, Slovak populists have raged against Hungarian-speaking Slovaks in their country. Chief among them is Ján Slota, the leader of the Slovak National Party (SNS), who, with his racist remarks about the Hungarian minority, has managed to become one of the country’s most popular politicians. Slota has a fondness for spouting polarizing statements like: “The Hungarians are a cancer in the body of the Slovak nation.”

Now Slovakia fears that its Hungarian minority could rebel once again. Kosovo could spark renewed efforts to secure independence by Slovakia’s Hungarian population — or even encourage it to push for a union with Hungary to the south.

When will we learn that we can’t just instantly try to change things in the world? Whenever we do, it fires back.