Comments on: EU: Iran Could Have Enough Uranium for a Bomb by Year’s End http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/ Politics and world events from a moderately liberal and conservative perspective Mon, 06 Oct 2008 16:41:31 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.2 By: camera inspection http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/#comment-39780 camera inspection Tue, 08 Apr 2008 02:03:37 +0000 http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/#comment-39780 <strong>camera inspection...</strong> , Ltd. The first laparoscopic cholecystectomy was performed in 1984 and the first video-laparoscopic cholecystectomy in 1987[citation... camera inspection…

, Ltd. The first laparoscopic cholecystectomy was performed in 1984 and the first video-laparoscopic cholecystectomy in 1987[citation…

]]> By: Cernig http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/#comment-26633 Cernig Sat, 23 Feb 2008 00:31:06 +0000 http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/#comment-26633 Michael? "with region I don’t take India, Pakistan and China in consideration" Why not? Pakistan is a major player in Middle East politics due to it's predominantly Sunni Muslim character and is currently testing nuke-capable missiles able to reach Tel Aviv. It already has IRBMs with the range to hit Dubai.  I know the State Dept acts as if a different page in the Atlas means an entirely different dimension but there's no need for the rest of us to make the same mistake. Regards, C Michael?

"with region I don’t take India, Pakistan and China in consideration"

Why not? Pakistan is a major player in Middle East politics due to it’s predominantly Sunni Muslim character and is currently testing nuke-capable missiles able to reach Tel Aviv. It already has IRBMs with the range to hit Dubai.  I know the State Dept acts as if a different page in the Atlas means an entirely different dimension but there’s no need for the rest of us to make the same mistake.

Regards, C

]]> By: Cernig http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/#comment-26625 Cernig Sat, 23 Feb 2008 00:26:35 +0000 http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/#comment-26625 My apologies, Kevin, I misunderstood your intent.  At least you're not saying I'm a sleeper agent for the Iranian Press Agency :-) BTW, Ive a post at Newshoggers with a link to the PDF of the IAEA's report today, and a theory on squaring the circle of allegations and denials surrounding the infamous "smoking laptop". Regards, C My apologies, Kevin, I misunderstood your intent.  At least you’re not saying I’m a sleeper agent for the Iranian Press Agency :-)

BTW, Ive a post at Newshoggers with a link to the PDF of the IAEA’s report today, and a theory on squaring the circle of allegations and denials surrounding the infamous "smoking laptop".

Regards, C

]]> By: Kevin Sullivan http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/#comment-26611 Kevin Sullivan Fri, 22 Feb 2008 22:07:26 +0000 http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/#comment-26611 Cernig, you can chime any day. No, I'm in basic agreement with you on this.  Cernig, you can chime any day.

No, I’m in basic agreement with you on this. 

]]> By: Cernig http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/#comment-26578 Cernig Fri, 22 Feb 2008 18:20:29 +0000 http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/#comment-26578 I've emailed the JRC asking if they can identify and provide a copy of the study. At the moment all I can find is a reference to <em>hypothetical</em> study papers referencing an <em>imaginary state</em> and based on various actual nations' nuclear programs - intended as an exercise for students of non-proliferation techniques in preparing an inspection regime to <em>prevent</em> said hypothetical nation from producing a weapon. Regards, C I’ve emailed the JRC asking if they can identify and provide a copy of the study. At the moment all I can find is a reference to hypothetical study papers referencing an imaginary state and based on various actual nations’ nuclear programs - intended as an exercise for students of non-proliferation techniques in preparing an inspection regime to prevent said hypothetical nation from producing a weapon.

Regards, C

]]> By: Rudi666 http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/#comment-26573 Rudi666 Fri, 22 Feb 2008 17:47:16 +0000 http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/#comment-26573 One persons Lancet study is another's  poor methodology. Until the study or simple spreadsheet is made public, not much can be said about supposed evidence about Iran.  ArmsControlWonks have numerous posts about simple calculations involving Iranian U235 enrichment.  Lets see if the simulations involve  simple spreadsheets and calculators  or actual computer modeling. One persons Lancet study is another’s  poor methodology. Until the study or simple spreadsheet is made public, not much can be said about supposed evidence about Iran.  ArmsControlWonks have numerous posts about simple calculations involving Iranian U235 enrichment.  Lets see if the simulations involve  simple spreadsheets and calculators  or actual computer modeling.

]]> By: Jason http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/#comment-26571 Jason Fri, 22 Feb 2008 17:38:35 +0000 http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/#comment-26571 He said that he predicted you were going to "chime in", Cernig. I don't see how that is a personal attack on you. Anyway, we don't welcome public debate about the comments policy. If you have a concern, send it by email. Don't try to invoke the comments policy in your comments, as you are not an admin or editor here. P.S. I tend to agree with Cernig's assessment of the state of and intentions behind the Iranian nuclear program, so this isn't ideological. He said that he predicted you were going to "chime in", Cernig. I don’t see how that is a personal attack on you.

Anyway, we don’t welcome public debate about the comments policy. If you have a concern, send it by email. Don’t try to invoke the comments policy in your comments, as you are not an admin or editor here.

P.S. I tend to agree with Cernig’s assessment of the state of and intentions behind the Iranian nuclear program, so this isn’t ideological.

]]> By: Cernig http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/#comment-26569 Cernig Fri, 22 Feb 2008 17:27:02 +0000 http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/#comment-26569 Well <em>that</em> was content-free, Kevin. Do you want to address the issues or just snark at the meesenger? I thought such comments were agin Poligazette's policy. Regards, C Well that was content-free, Kevin. Do you want to address the issues or just snark at the meesenger? I thought such comments were agin Poligazette’s policy.

Regards, C

]]> By: Kevin Sullivan http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/#comment-26553 Kevin Sullivan Fri, 22 Feb 2008 16:13:16 +0000 http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/#comment-26553 See Michael, I <em>told you</em> Cernig would chime in! See Michael, I told you Cernig would chime in!

]]> By: Cernig http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/#comment-26496 Cernig Fri, 22 Feb 2008 06:07:06 +0000 http://poligazette.com/2008/02/21/eu-iran-could-have-enough-uranium-for-a-bomb-by-years-end/#comment-26496 Ah yes, the old high/low switcheroo. You can't get there from here though. The current centrifuges and low-level enriched Uranium are under IAEA seal and surveillance and the Agency guarantee they couldn't be redirected to be used for further enrichment to weapons grade without IAEA knowledge. You can't get HEU without LEU and centrifuges, so all estimates are working from null data. I don't blame the JRC though. For one thing, it's not based in Italy but in Brussels and the DG, noted nuclear physicist and arms control wonk Roland Schenkel, certainly had no hand in this research himself. Notice he's mentioned in the Spiegel report but not in direct connection with any Italian research. Funnily enough, I can find absolutely no mention of this report on the JRC website, yet JRC reports are meant "to be accessible to interested non-specialists and the media. " I'd love to read the original to see how Spiegel's reporting matches up. If you find it, please let me know Michael. The Spiegel piece's author is the magazine's science correspondent and I'm sure he's above making things up out of whole cloth just for the sake of a lurid story. (<a href="http://medienkritik.typepad.com/blog/2007/04/spiegel_online_.html" rel="nofollow">David Medienkritik</a> thinks he's a hack, though.) Regards, C Ah yes, the old high/low switcheroo. You can’t get there from here though. The current centrifuges and low-level enriched Uranium are under IAEA seal and surveillance and the Agency guarantee they couldn’t be redirected to be used for further enrichment to weapons grade without IAEA knowledge. You can’t get HEU without LEU and centrifuges, so all estimates are working from null data.

I don’t blame the JRC though. For one thing, it’s not based in Italy but in Brussels and the DG, noted nuclear physicist and arms control wonk Roland Schenkel, certainly had no hand in this research himself. Notice he’s mentioned in the Spiegel report but not in direct connection with any Italian research.

Funnily enough, I can find absolutely no mention of this report on the JRC website, yet JRC reports are meant "to be accessible to interested non-specialists and the media. " I’d love to read the original to see how Spiegel’s reporting matches up. If you find it, please let me know Michael. The Spiegel piece’s author is the magazine’s science correspondent and I’m sure he’s above making things up out of whole cloth just for the sake of a lurid story. (David Medienkritik thinks he’s a hack, though.)

Regards, C

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