Mike Huckabee continues to win southern primaries, taking the Louisiana contest yesterday while also demonstrating strength in the bible belt by taking the Kansas caucuses. Not only does the Huckster reveal his strength by winning these races, at the same time he shows the entire world McCain’s crippling weakness.

The frontrunner for the Republican nomination for president cannot win the base of his own party.

Losing the south in November would be tantamount to a realignment. Regardless of which candidate wins the nomination on the other side, a northern Democrat will have defeated a Republican in the south for the first time since 1960 when John Kennedy won 7 southern states, including all states in the deep south except Florida (Alabama ended up splitting its vote in the electoral college). To say that would represent a sea change in electoral politics would be a huge understatement. Without the south, Republicans may as well get used to the idea that they will be a minority party for a very long time.

McCain’s problems have gone far beyond the tactical necessity of winning over conservatives. He faces a strategic dilemma of the first magnitude. And Mike Huckabee isn’t making things any easier for him.

Huckabee is making the case loud and clear that he deserves the second spot on the ticket. By embarrassing McCain in the south, Huckabee reveals McCain’s electoral dysfunction - and his desperation. His well-known appeal to independents is based on the fact that he is not a doctrinaire, hard core conservative. What would happen to his independent/moderate base if he were to choose a rabid social conservative like Huckabee whose past statements on everything from gays to women’s rights leave the ticket wide open to devastating attacks by the Democrats?

Such a ticket might help in the south. But everywhere else, it would damage McCain’s own base of support among the indies thus causing him to lose states that he will absolutely need in order to defeat the Democratic nominee.

If one were to overlay a map from the 2000 election on top of a map from the 2004 election, you would see that it is almost identical. Only one state switched from red to blue and 2 states from blue to red.

But McCain’s problems come into stark relief if you were to overlay a map of Democratic gains in the 2006 mid terms. The mountain west states of Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada are looking bluer all the time. Iowa seems lost as does Ohio. The GOP has virtually disappeared in the northeast. Meanwhile, those blue states got a lot bluer.

In practical terms, McCain has a whole lot more territory to defend than his opponents. This frees the Democrats to target those states mentioned above and perhaps some others in the upper south like Virginia, West Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Missouri.

Only McCain’s appeal to independents might yet save the day because Republicans, with McCain running, will have some rich targets of their own to go after. Suddenly, the upper midwest - where Bush lost some very close races - looks to be in play. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and perhaps even Michigan might be had for the taking. Pennsylvania also becomes a possible GOP target. And with McCain’s popularity in New Hampshire, New England comes back into play for the GOP.

All of that might be moot if McCain is forced to choose Huckabee as his running mate. This is not to say that the Arizona senator shouldn’t choose a good conservative - I think that’s a foregone conclusion. But a conservative with a lot less baggage would be better than a Huckabee whose shameless pandering to the religious right would not sit well in states where McCain has a chance for a breakthrough.

So McCain’s dilemma is simple; does he choose a running mate who can help him in the south but hurts him elsewhere? Or does he choose a candidate whose impact on the south is unknown but will almost certainly aid him in blue states?

No doubt they will ponder those questions in the McCain camp long and hard before reaching a decision.