Huckabee on a Roll
(3 Updates below…)
Mike Huckabee, winner of the West Virginia Republican caucus earlier today, is doing better than I, for one, had expected in the Republican South, winning - as projected by ABC - Alabama by a significant margin and, as expected, his home state of Arkansas.
More importantly, Huckabee is leading in Georgia with over 85% of the vote in. Huckabee also leads in Missouri, a state where John McCain expected to do better tonight than he has, and is also ahead of McCain in Tennessee.
ABC’s analysis is that conservative Republicans, whipped into an anti-McCain frenzy by Mitt Romney, Rush Limbaugh, et al, have bypassed the flip-flopping Romney, conservative pundits’ last best option, and voted for Huckabee instead.
Another interpretation is that Huckabee’s Christianity is a bigger draw - and more important to voters - than the media and fiscal conservatives alike would like to believe.
Meanwhile, Mitt Romney is completely dying on the vine. He’s won only his home state of Massachusetts thus far with no decent prospects for more and a string of 3rd place finishes to show for his millions. At this point I doubt that Romney will be on the Texas ballot next month.
More on this topic as the night progresses.
Update from Mike Huckabee at his HQ:
Some people have said that this is a 2 man race. Well, it is - and we’re in it!
It’s evidence that 1 small smooth stone can be more effective than a whole lot of armor.
(Obvious reference to Mitt Romney, a Goliath to Huckabee’s David, who has suffered the same fate despite spending more of his own money than I’ll make in my entire lifetime.)
Huckabee says that he’s been the candidate that has supported small business owners more than any other. He’s going to make the free market work by getting the government off of the neck of these businesses.
He’s also looking forward to putting the IRS out of business. The Fair Tax, he says, will give small business owners and other Americans a fair chance to get their part of the American dream.
And the rest of the standard stump speech…
Update 2:
Huckabee’s lead does seem to be holding up in Georgia, Tennessee, and even in Missouri. These wins, far more than those achieved by Mitt Romney, may well make the Republican race a 2-man event, just as Mike Huckabee alluded to earlier.
John McCain’s wins, however, go a long way toward making him a lock to win the Republican nomination.
I think Mitt Romney is just about done unless he can pull off a win in California, something that seems unlikely to me.
Update 3:
ABC just declared that Georgia has been won by Mike Huckabee.
With 10% of the vote counted, John McCain is wiping the floor with Mitt Romney in California.
Obama, by staying close to Hillary tonight, is in the process of declaring victory. Loved the bit about the federal government being responsible for the needs of victims of the storms that swept through the midwest today. It got a cheap cheer, of course, as all giveaways do. But it’s an insight into Obama’s belief in a large federal government.
Huckabee will probably take Tennessee also
Someone should remind Mitt that he isn’t running for CEO of a corporation and that true conservative isn’t just the economy.
Seriously though:
Huckabee and Romney have been very close to each other in most national polls, and Huckabee at one point has been higher than Romney in national polls. Huckabee also does better than Romney in matchups vs Hillary or Obama.
I don’t think Huckabee has a chance of winning, but I don’t think Romney has a chance of winning either.
However, people should knock off this idea that Romney has more support than Huckabee, it just doesn’t bear out.
Huckabee as McCain’s veep? They obviously like each other. It would solidify the Southern base. But will it open up a barrage of candidate focus on creationism, etc? What’s the general election cost/benefit to McCain in making this choice?
kreiz: initially I’d thought that was a good ticket but I had underestimated the hatred of the fiscal conservative base toward McCain. My initial thoughts were that Huckabee would shore up the social cons for McCain and that his personality and youth would balance out McCain’s negatives in those areas. However, it’s become apparent to me that this move would be perceived as another example of McCain relishing ’sticking his finger in the eye’ of traditional fiscal conservatives, so I doubt he’ll do it and if he does, I think the negatives probably outweigh the positives.
I’m wondering if Steve Forbes is a contender? I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Newt, either (though that might end up being a deal breaker for independents who might otherwise consider McCain.)
Of the more conventional short listers being discussed, I think a young governor like Sanford might be a good choice, or maybe Pawlenty. Crist is possible too, given his popularity in FL (and if the calculus ends up being weighed toward the need to win FL and perform decently with Hispanic voters.) I think McCain and Crist have both opposed Bush quite a bit, which could end up being a good thing or a bad one for electability (not sure how the pluses and minuses balance out on that one.)
Don’t be surprised if McCain picks Lieberman, who has been following him on the campaign trail like a lovesick puppy. They have almost the same views on foreign policy, and Lieberman would solidify him with moderates and indies.
BTW, I agree that Huckabee is a more viable candidate than Mitt Romney. Romney can’t get any traction in the South, despite his advantages in money and organization, because his social conservatism is suspect. True social conservatives seem to get that Huckabee is the real thing, while Romney is an opportunist, who seems to lack true conviction.
I think Lieberman would be poison to McCain on the ticket (to conservatives, obviously- as much as they have expressed admiration for Lieberman when it serves them to do so and annoy lefties, there’s no secret that he’s liberal on everything except foreign policy.)
My guess if anything, Lieberman gets Sec. of State.
My view is that McCain needs youth and an energetic, ethically clean, articulate domestic policy guy on his ticket (leaving McCain to concentrate on the foreign policy stuuf), and yes, cs, a new breed fiscal conservative. Huckabee is a weird sort of fiscal con. I’d like to see one of the young turks like Pence, but maybe his name recognition isn’t strong enough.
kritter,
From everything I’ve heard, Independents and Democrats also like Huckabee a lot better than Romney. I’ve heard a lot of Democrats say they thought Huckabee was the best Republican candidate, others that he was the best after McCain. They don’t seriously believe he’s a theocrat. The people who tend to think he’s a theocrat are conservatives, who are overly defensive, and think he’ll make the party look bad ; or people farther left, who also think Bush was theocratic.
Yes, he surprised me with the turn he took on economics toward populism. When Ed Rollins signed onto his campaign, I thought we’d hear a lot more Reaganesque stuff, focusing on federalism. I figured he could make a good case for how a governor recognizes that federal mandates force budgetary crises on the state governments (and I actually did hear him finally say something to that effect in the last debate, so maybe he or Ed read one of my comments about this
)
Anyway- Pence is another one I’d like to see too but you may be right about name recognition. On the other hand, is that important? McCain himself has the name recognition, and his weakest flank is with fiscally conservative political junkies, who surely know who Pence is.
Gingrich left open the possibility that he would accept an offer to run as vice president, however. “I would feel compelled to consider it,” he told Newsmax. “But it would depend on what the platform was, and what the agreement was about relative roles. But I certainly would not turn it down out of hand.”
http://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/gingrich_Clinton_race/2008/01/27/67836.html
Dueker, communications director for the 527 group she formed, “Think Condi,” travels around the country at her own expense in a van covered with Condi stickers.Today, she and about 10,000 Condiacs across the country are hoping Rice will be the veep pick for whatever white male gets the GOP nomination.
http://www.kansascity.com/273/story/453391.html
Gingrich is nothing if not obvious, huh?
Interesting about Rice. Although I like her, I can’t see that she complements McCain in any way except for demographics (and I can’t agree with picking a ticket that way) because he’s already strong on foreign policy.
Newt is, at best, an acquired taste………and not that many outside of the wonkier side have acquired it.
He also comes with baggage. McCain already has a big enough bullseye painted on him……..I continue to advise "clean and pure" would be a better style pick.
casualobserver,
sure newt in some ways comes with baggage. in some ways he could be an advantage depending on the democratic nominee.
if newt is the VP choice, hillary couldn’t claim any credit for the economy in the 90s—he forced her husband into a budget showdown after all.
newt would also consolidate conservative support.
i think some of newts unfavorable ratings have diminished anyway
either way, its the GOPs choice