A lot of people are saying Hillary already has it sewn up. Look at the comments here.

Of course, this is all based on polls, and we’ve seen how surprisingly wrong polls can be, any which way, come election day.

Meanwhile, this from my brother in Denver:

M. [his daughter] and I stood in line in the cold for almost three hours this morning for a chance to hear Barack Obama speak at the University of Denver. The crowd was huge — probably well over 12,000 people. We wound up in the overflow venue — a basketball gym. Obama appeared briefly there, electrifying the crowd, before giving his big speech in the hockey arena, which was beamed into the adjacent gym (which also was packed to the rafters . And, hundreds of latecomers huddled in the cold on a lacrosse field to hear the speech ).

Without ever mentioning her by name, he really went after Hillary, arguing that she’s the one person who might be able to unite the Republican Party this fall. It was quite a speech. Click here to read the text.

This begins to feel like a real movement. And the Clintons are sounding increasingly shrill and desperate. E. [his wife] and I will be attending our caucus Tuesday to do what we can to help Obama win Colorado.

And meanwhile, this from Dick Morris:

The bitterness of the Democratic contest leaves open the possibility of massive defections from Hillary should she be the candidate, both among blacks and whites. There will be legions of disappointed young voters if Obama eventually loses to the race-baiting Clinton machine.

McCain’s record offers much to attract these disaffected Democrats and independents.

Riding in the car today with Chris, Jacques’ physical therapist, I said, “If Hillary’s the candidate, I vote for McCain.” (And if it’s Romney? Don’t ask.) She said, “I don’t think I could vote for a Republican.” Well, there you have the difference between a partisan and an independent.

What irony if the Republicans were to win the White House because enraged Democrats and independents stampede over and save them from themselves! By hating McCain even more than they hate Hillary, the dittoheads could hand her the election — if Dems wanted her to have it! But as Michael says, a large part of the Democratic body — the young part, for sure, and more — is viscerally rejecting the Clintons at the T-cell level.

Republicans saved from Republicans who hate McCain more than Hillary by Democrats who hate Hillary more than McCain . . . I’m getting a weird image of a donkey and an elephant walking in a circle, holding each other’s tails.

Obama vs. McCain would be close. I can’t imagine it being very nasty. It would be real experience vs. real youth, both of which have real things to recommend them. Probably most of the jabbing would be about exactly that — “Is he too old?” “Is he too young?” — and national security. Even there, there are arguments both ways. McCain would reinforce America’s hard power, Obama would supercharge America’s soft power. And they’re not mutually exclusive: McCain can deal and Obama has a hawkish streak. One big factor may be that Obama will get more chances; McCain won’t. McCain also heals Vietnam while Obama merely leaves it in the past. Either is preferable to its continuing to fester (in the baby-boom generation), but there’s something to be said for (I hate this word) “closure.” How does McCain heal Vietnam? In his person. He fought there, suffered there and came out of it both tough and compassionate. And he’s gone back, both to make peace and to put the screws to communist hard-liners. He embodies both sides of the lessons of that war.

Cross-posted at AmbivaBlog