Filed under: 2008 elections, Lead Story — Michael van der Galien on January 30, 2008 @ 10:19 am CET
To me, it’s perfectly clear after yesterday’s primary: John McCain will be the Republican nominee. I don’t see how Romney can beat him on Super Tuesday, especially not considering the fact that McCain is polling very well in many big Super Tuesday states. It also has to be said that Romney outspent McCain 8-1. If you outspend someone by so much, you don’t deserve to win.
It’s interesting to see that McCain called himself a “conservative.” He’s not. He’s a moderate Republican. That’s not a problem - heck, policy-wise I for one am very close to him - but why lie about it? Or: is he trying to redefine “conservatism”?
Well, come to think about it, it is a problem.
As said, policy-wise I think that McCain is a pretty good nominee, normally. He has one major weakness, the economy. He has to make up for that by picking a running mate with knowledge about the economy. It seems that Rudy Giuliani will be his running mate. If true, Giuliani and McCain would own national security, and Giuliani would do well on the economy, but they have one major problem: neither are products of the conservative base.
Frankly, I don’t see the base voting in large numbers if the Republicans have a McCain / Giuliani ticket. Especially the socons may have a minor problem voting for such a ticket.
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1 C Stanley
January 30, 2008 @ 11:16 am CETYou pretty much answered your own question about why McCain is forced to emphasize his conservative cred instead of running as a moderate Republiican, Michael, when you linked to Michelle Malkin. He’s "insulted" the base, "trashed" the base, etc, because he’s had the audacity to be more moderate than they are on several issues.
The sad fact is that quite a lot of the ‘base’ doesn’t believe there is any such thing as moderate Republicanism.
I think like Pat mentioned yesterday though, at the end of the day they’ll vote for him anyway.
2 C Stanley
January 30, 2008 @ 11:26 am CETOh, and I hope that the deal with Giuliani wasn’t for the VP slot (perhaps cabinet instead) because I don’t think that would be a winning pair.
3 John Mccain » John McCain Republican Nominee
January 30, 2008 @ 11:30 am CET[…] Michael van der Galien wrote an interesting post today on John McCain Republican NomineeHere’s a quick excerptTo me, it’s perfectly clear after yesterday’s primary: John McCain will be the Republican nominee. I don’t see how Romney can beat him on Super Tuesday, especially not considering the fact that McCain is polling very well in many big … […]
4 John McCain » Blog Archive » John McCain Republican Nominee
January 30, 2008 @ 11:46 am CET[…] TheTownCrier wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptTo me, it’s perfectly clear after yesterday’s primary: John McCain will be the Republican nominee. I don’t see how Romney can beat him on Super Tuesday, especially not considering the fact that McCain is polling very well in many big … […]
5 casualobserver
January 30, 2008 @ 3:40 pm CET"Conservatives" can and should b*tch and moan during the primaries to really test their field.
But, conservatives should be quietly rejoicing at the notion that despite all these "McCain negatives", he is the only R that is holding his own with Clinton and Obama in the head to head polls.
McCain may not be your first choice, but never forget what the ultimate "other choice" is. I’ll happily take my chances with McCain and brush up on my Spanish.
6 Tap
January 30, 2008 @ 4:12 pm CETI think you are right, Michael, especially with Rudi dropping out and Huckabee staying in. Rudi will help McCain and Huckabee will hurt Romney. It looks like McCain’s got it.
7 Americaneocon
January 30, 2008 @ 4:15 pm CETIt’s clear to me too! This is from today’s L.A. Times: “John McCain now has a pathway to the Republican presidential nomination. The question is whether he can put his fractured party back together. The Arizona senator, long the bane of the GOP establishment, showed in Florida that he could begin cobbling together a new Republican coalition — attracting enough support from all corners of the party base to give him a plurality in the biggest and most diverse state to vote so far in the 2008 campaign. He took about a quarter of conservatives, secured nearly a third of evangelicals, dominated among his typical base of self-described moderates, and won easily among voters who care about authenticity, experience and electability. In winning Florida, McCain threw off a major critique of his candidacy: He prevailed in an all-Republican primary that excluded the more moderate independents who had ensured McCain’s wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina.” I hope conservatives will be able to pull together. I doubt Romney has much chance on Super Tuesday. McCain will probably wrap up. Then we’ll need to unite, start healing the party, and get ready to defeat the Democrats in November.
8 Justin Gardner
January 30, 2008 @ 5:27 pm CETWait, one can’t be a conservative AND a moderate Republican? Just because McCain doesn’t fit into your own definitions of what this means doesn’t make him a liar. What makes him a liar is that ad he ran in Florida against Romney that completely mischaracterized Mitt’s stance on the war.More explanation please…
9 C Stanley
January 30, 2008 @ 5:32 pm CETIt’s a heresy, apparently, Justin.
10 Rudi666
January 30, 2008 @ 5:37 pm CETAre Malkin/Limpbaugh really the "base" or just a pundits and writer(Malkin) interested in their own self promotion? Instead of loser Romney/Guliani why not a fellow Arizonan and true fiscal conservative like Jeff Flake for VP?
This is a serious comment from the other side. The Arizona ticket won’t make James Dobson happy, but the other two legs of your party should like it.
11 Michael van der Galien
January 30, 2008 @ 5:38 pm CETRudi’s talking sense I think. Giuliani would also be good, problem that the socons won’t like it.
12 Michael van der Galien
January 30, 2008 @ 5:40 pm CETYes it is (MvdG Watch ;)).
And note, I’m talking about American conservatism. And no, McCain isn’t that. He’s a Moderate Republican not a Conservative Republican. It’s why we use different words.
What’s getting into centrists these days? EVeryone’s a centrist even when they’re not, but when they are they’re not, but they are.
HUH?
13 Rudi666
January 30, 2008 @ 5:53 pm CETAre you saying Rudi666 is making sense?
14 Alan Stewart Carl
January 30, 2008 @ 5:57 pm CETModerate Republicans call themselves conservatives and liberal Democrats call themselves moderates. Somewhere along the way, politicians decided that it’s always smarter to say you are further right than you are.
And if Giuliani is his running mate, that would be a major F you to the conservative base. My total guess would be Rudy’s deal is for attorney general. McCain will likely go more traditional base conservative.
15 Rudi666
January 30, 2008 @ 6:05 pm CETAlan - Why would McCain pick another geezer for his Cabinet. There are some young Republicans that could start a movement. Mike Pence, Jeff Flake and Lindsay Graham come to mind and provide a contrast to McCain’s age. McCain wins, runs one term and hands over the reins to the Young Turks in his administration. This would be a good counter move to an Obama or Hillary old guard Democrat ticket. Remember the scene with Hillary, Maddy Albright and Wes Clark on a stage in walkers.
16 redfish
January 30, 2008 @ 6:26 pm CETThere’s such a thing as a moderate conservative—there are different degrees of conservativism. Just because McCain is not pure doesn’t mean he’s out of the conservative camp and purely in the moderate camp. Because he isn’t a pure moderate either.