Barack Wins Big.
Barack Obama was expected to win South Carolina, but he’s won bigger than anyone foresaw — more than half of all votes cast, more than twice as many as Hillary Clinton’s. His vote total alone — over 277,000 with 95% reporting — is approaching the total of all votes (293,000) in the last SC Democratic primary.
It will be interesting to see the demographic breakdown of the vote and to see whether the Clintons will plausibly be able to claim that he’s now the “black candidate.” (At his HQ they’ve, probably deliberately, put a lot of white faces in the mix behind him for his victory speech.) He has now labeled Hillary the “status quo” candidate. She still leads in every Super Tuesday state, and we’ll see whether the unexpected size of this win helps Obama shift that. He’s talking right now about getting beyond race and age and partisanship and even class to the elusive one America — a kind of colorful, colorblind future America — and his tone is a little tougher and more down-to-earth than it has been, which makes his eloquence far more effective. (He’s the kind of orator who, no matter how world-weary you are, can make your skin prickle and tears sting your eyes.) He seems to have tremendous appeal to the young, and his most compelling meme is “This election . . . is about the past versus the future.”
Caroline Kennedy endorses him in the NYT tomorrow, saying “Finally I can vote for a president like my father.”
On MSNBC, Joe Scarborough says he is getting positive e-mails from conservative Republicans.
As one who wants to see the Clintons stopped, I’d like to hope. I really would.
Cross-posted at AmbivaBlog.
As a conservative, I’d still rather see Clinton in the election than Obama. I just think she’d be easier to beat…especially after alienating so many Democrats.
I think we’re about to see a tipping point, as I discuss over at Stubborn Facts. The Clintons may or may not be intentionally trying to paint Obama as the "black" candidate, but I don’t think the electorate’s going to buy it, and I think that if they continue, they’ll see some serious backlash. Nobody could mistake Barack Obama and Jesse Jackson; it just won’t work. Plus, I’d point out that Clinton herself had plenty of black faces in her crowd tonight. She can’t afford to write off the black vote.
Moreover, I suspect she will face a great deal of pressure from top Democrats to stop any such strategy, because it will do extensive long-term damage to the Democratic party. Imagine what it will look like when the black Democrat captures all the southern states, but the liberal white Democrats in Los Angeles and New York won’t vote for him, no matter how progressive he is.
Tap, I don’t think so. All the people who are ticked off with the Clintons’ tactics at the moment will be perfectly happy with them once the Clintons start using them against Republicans again.
huh. You have a point there. I think the Republicans have an uphill battle either way. I’ve said that for four years though. We Americans tend to through out the party in power after a stretch like that regardless of who’s running for the next term.
But. Do you think Obama would be easier to beat? I tend to think that if he wins the nomination, he will be riding a high, swift tide, and that people will be very excited about it. I’d predict a HUGE turnout.
He will certainly be tough to beat, but I don’t think that he’ll be as tough as Clinton would be to beat. They’ve always had the Republicans’ number, and they have been remarkably successful at getting large swathes of the country to assume that any criticism of them is simply the result of GOP "Clinton-hatred."
Obama’s key to success is his likeability and his moderate rhetoric. He can’t afford to switch gears to "attack dog;" that would belie his "new politics" rhetoric and turn people off. The campaign will then, if the GOP candidate is smart, focus on the issues, and on the issues, Obama is pretty far to the left of the country.
Kennedy was a mobster. The Obama threats make more sense!
Kenndy made allot and that’s why he got in trouble.
Obviously, it is time for Hillary to cry again.
I’m a conservative and Obama moves me back to the day when I was a young idealistic Dem worker for Gene McCarthy in ‘68 [just found my GM national staff badge coincidentally this evening] .
I was lucky enough to hear Dr. MLK live at SLU & also hear RFK give a speech live. The vibes are a bit the same. The cynicism evaporates. I think Obama somehow encapsulates MLK’s cadences & JFK’s appeal to the intellect while giving a speech. Haven’t seen anyone as good in forty years….honest!!
Today someone did a projection and McCain beats HRC 46-44 right now, but only ties Obama—-so Obama is the greater threat.
Strategically & in my mind, I hope HRC gets the nomination, which will give the GOP the presidency. But my heart kinda wants Obama to win and get a shot. He might win, but the GOP could win in 2012, if he’s as bad as the Clintons say he is!!!