McCain Leads Giuliani in New York
Via Memeorandum comes the news that Rudy Giuliani has lost his lead in New York. As could be expected* once John McCain had the momentum going (since they’re fighting over the same kind of voters), the moderate Republican Senator for Arizona has now overtaken the moderate former Mayor of New York. What’s more surprising, however, is the gap between the two: Giuliani is trailing McCain by 12 points.
Now, you’ve got to realize that McCain was 33% behind Giuliani in December. This means that he’s truly surging in New York and it’s increasingly likely that he’ll be able to win this state. Having said that, what happens if Giuliani wins in Florida? He’ll have the momentum going as well and suddenly New Yorkers will realize that one of them can win the Republican nomination.
At this moment, however, McCain’s the man to watch in New York.
*It has to be said that the development is surprising in so far that most people thought that Giuliani should be able to carry New York, but it seems to me that if one thing was clear from the get-go it’s that these two individuals fight over the same votes. Giuliani may be from New York, but it’s not difficult to imagine that McCain would do well over there. Especially when most voters believe that Giuliani doesn’t have a chance whatsoever of winning the nomination.
To me, what this poll means is that most people assume, at least in New York, that Giuliani can’t win the nomination. That spells trouble for him. He’d better win in Florida.
My guess is that Rudy is fading in Florida. My long-time Dem wife is registering as a REPUBLICAN to vote for McCain because Rudy scares her. I myself looked fondly at Rudy, but he just can’t get out of a decision that might have been fatal.