Republicans Now a Two-Man Race?

Filed under: 2008 elections, Opinion — Jason, Managing Editor on January 20, 2008 @ 4:09 am CET

With McCain’s win in South Carolina and Romney’s in Nevada, the Republican field is beginning to shake out. McCain has emerged from the brink of collapse to be running second in the delegate count while Romney is pursuing a cagey strategy that maximizes delegates that can be won wherever other candidates aren’t doing the work to win them. The result may be a two-man race for the Republican nomination.

(Ross Douhat agrees that it is a two-man race.)

Thompson’s weak third place puts him on the brink of elimination. But, of course, the more controversial claim is that Huckabee is done — put a fork in him. The exit polls show a dismal story for Huckabee. The only way that Huckabee could realistically build momentum towards a serious nomination run would be by continuing to dominate the vote in the evangelical-rich South. McCain not only managed to cut significantly into this demographic in South Carolina, but did in spite of (or perhaps because of) Huckabee’s willingness to embrace the symbol of the racist Confederacy. If Huckabee on full pander and on full-bore with dirty tricks still couldn’t pull it out in a southern state with a huge evangelical population, there remains no apparent path for him to rebuild a coalition that could put him in anything higher than third overall by convention time.

Ron Paul’s strong showing among Nevada’s unusually large libertarian population aside, his numbers continue to fade, down to 4% in South Carolina. While Paul’s passionate supporters will no doubt continue to annoy many in the blogosphere with their incessant spamming of comments threads, Paul is rapidly ceasing to be a significant factor in the race even as a curiosity or a marginal kingmaker. His fundraising “money bombs” will keep him around as an irritant, but only that. He has lost the ability even to push issues on to the agenda, and given the content of some of Paul’s signature issues (e.g. rants about global banking conspiracies, the Federal Reserve, and a “NAFTA superhighway” that will somehow destroy American sovereignty by using semi-trailer trucks with Mexican license plates), that’s just fine.

Going forward, the media consensus is that McCain is in the driver’s seat, but I disagree. Romney’s lead in the delegate count has been too quickly ignored by a media that tends to fixate only on the largest contest of the day. And as Huckabee begins to fade, it is unlikely that a majority of his voters will break towards McCain unless anti-Mormonism is playing an even bigger role in Huckabee’s support than even the strongest Romney supporters believe. The Republican race may yet come down to a three-way brokered convention, but today’s results make that look less likely than before.

UPDATE: Michelle Malkin agrees with my conclusion about Huckabee, while highlighting yet another slimy Huckasaint moment.

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1 politico2

January 20, 2008 @ 4:35 am CET

67% of SouthCarolinians voted AGAINST McCain. Huckabee only trailed McCain by 3% of the votes. Thompson’s 16% would have gone mostly for Huckabee. I fail to see how SC reduces the Rep field down to two? Neither McCain nor Romney can win in the General Election. McCain’s Pro Amnesty stance will break him and Romney’s religion, unfortunately, will probably cost him. BTW none of the above are my candidate.

2 Erin

January 20, 2008 @ 5:02 am CET

Nice hit piece on Ron Paul. I have to admit devoting 1/4 of your entire post to a negative opinionated rant on Dr. Paul doesn’t surprise me. Somehow there is a lot of people like you out there that do not want to hear the truth and accept it. There are some issues that all the other ‘candidates’ simply don’t talk about — and when Dr. Paul clearly states them and solutions for them he is treated like this. I shouldn’t have wasted my time commenting, but since I wasted my time reading this I might as well share my opinion as well.

3 kreiz

January 20, 2008 @ 11:21 am CET

Given Mac’s SC win, on Super Tuesday, who can challenge McCain in CA? Romney? Doubtful- even with his bankroll. Huckabee? Now now.

4 Michael van der Galien

January 20, 2008 @ 12:21 pm CET

Kreiz: the question isn’t "one state" it’s several. And yes, Romney’s the only one, logically, who can challenge McCain in many states.

The question is whether Thompson will drop out soon / before Super Tuesday. If he does, Romney will rise in the polls. If Thompson, however, wants McCain to win, he’ll stay in the race for as long as possible.

No, this is a two-men race now. Very clearly. The media want to pretend that McCain is the main man right now, but that’s because they want him to win. The reality is that both Romney and McCain can win.

5 Mike McGlothlin

January 22, 2008 @ 7:57 pm CET

It’s a two man race with McCain and Romney. Fred’s all but quit and true conservatives will have a hard time going with McCain because of his support for amnesty. Huckabee lost in SC and will come in fourth in Fla another southern state. He’s done. Rudy waited too long and will come in third in Fla. He’s done. If Romney takes Fla by 2 points or more, he’s got 4 wins and a lot more delegates than McCain. He can spend his way to wins in close super Tuesday states and come in a close second in the other races. After super Tuesday he’ll have a 2-1 lead over McCain in delegates and be well on the way to the nomination. His strong anti-illegal alien stance, business smarts, and positive message will win out over McCain’s amnesty, age, insider image.