Pollster Looks at What Went Wrong
Pollster tries to find out why its polls were way off base:
A good starting point would be for each New Hampshire pollster to release their demographic and cross tab data. This would allow sample composition to be compared and for voter preferences within demographic groups to be compared. Another valuable bit of information would be voter preference by day of interview.
In 1948 the polling industry suffered its worst failure when confidently predicting Truman’s defeat. In the wake of that polling disaster, the profession responded positively by appointing a review committee which produced a book-length report on what went wrong, how it could have been avoided and what “best practices” should be adopted. The polling profession was much the better for that examination and report.
The New Hampshire results are not on the same level of embarrassment as 1948, but they do represent a moment when the profession could respond positively by releasing the kind of data that will allow an open assessment of methods. Such an assessment may reveal that in fact the polls were pretty good, but the politics just changed dramatically on election day. Or the facts could show that pollsters need to improve some of their practices and methods. Pollsters have legitimate proprietary interests to protect, but big mistakes like New Hampshire mean there are times when some openness can buy back lost credibility.
Sounds about right to me, especially if they want businesses to keep hiring them to do market research.
