Granite State Muddies Republican Waters
Filed under: 2008 elections, Fred Thompson, John McCain — marc moore on January 9, 2008 @ 4:45 am CET
Fox News says that John McCain is the winner in New Hampshire’s Republican primary as he’s leading by a comfortable 9 6 point margin with 29% 73% of the state’s precincts reporting.
This makes the race for the GOP’s nomination that much more interesting with Mitt Romney barely ahead of Mike Huckabee in Michigan next week and Huckabee expected to come in ahead of McCain in South Carolina soon after.
Will McCain get a boost from New Hampshire? Personally I don’t think so. His performance in the past weekend’s debates was decent but not inspiring. Also, I don’t believe that many people in either Michigan or S.C. care what the folks in New Hampshire thing. I’m sure that they’re all fine folks and all, but let’s be straight with each other: They vote strangely in the Granite State, perhaps on purpose, to liven things up.
How else can I explain Fred Thompson’s measly 2% 1% of the pie after his excellent performance in the Fox debate? Maybe he didn’t spend much time or money in New Hampshire, but come on! He rocked and that’s worth 2% 1%?
Nah. New Hampshire is in no way representative of the rest of the U.S. and I think this will be demonstrated over the next month.
I do think that N.H. signals the beginning - or middle - of the end of Mr. Thompson, although the corpse of his campaign may struggle awkwardly onward for a while. His fate is both unfortunate and undeserved; Thompson has far more to offer the country than most of his competitors.
Update:
With 73 percent of precincts reporting, returns showed McCain with 37 percent of the vote and Romney with 31 percent.
1 rita macdonald
January 9, 2008 @ 5:32 am CETFred Thompson will win South Carolina, the state that chooses our Presidential candidate on the GOP side.
Mitt Romney will leave the race after he loses Michigan although he honestly should leave now. Madden looked like a fool trying to spin a loss in a state where Romney was better known than anyone.
Senator Thompson was punished by the voters of New Hampshire (check his poll numbers) because he skipped the first debate to appear on Leno when he was in second nationally. That announcement gaffe (in retrospect) resulted in him placing below Ron Paul.
Ron Paul has now been outed with his newsletter. Where would a small government fan go now? Fred Dalton Thompson.
Mitt Romney built a campaign on inevitability, and now has lost in two states where he vastly outspent his rivals. When and not if he loses Michigan, he will have to leave the race. Where will his support go? Fred Dalton Thompson.
Once he wins South Carolina, who will be THE political story heading into Florida? Fred Dalton Thompson, the only by that point social and fiscal conservative left in the race. Then he wins Florida, and takes 5 states minimum on Super Tuesday with strong showings in others like CA that split delegates.
Why does the media hate him? He is going to beat Hillary in November and carry strong federalist and conservative principles to the White House. He also is Southern but will not bumble and stumble with his words like Bush. Helen Thomas will be like Michael Moore, another brilliantly dismissed looney, when President Thompson is in charge.
2 kritter
January 9, 2008 @ 5:56 am CETFred Thompson isn’t campaigning hard enough to win the presidency. That, mediocre debate performances, and his late start, are what have doomed his chances. No one gives him a serious chance at the nomination. He comes off as dull and old. McCain is older but projects vigor and integrity. That’s what the voters are looking for, at least in New Hampshire.
3 John Brill
January 9, 2008 @ 6:09 am CETI agree in large strokes with rita macdonald, but there are hitches.
Mitt Romney has a lot of money. The prevailing wisdom is that he will fight until Super Tuesday. Not necessarily that prevailing wisdom is right with this, but that’s what it’s saying.
Ron Paul also has a lot of money and a lot of pride. He strikes me as the kinda guy who would hang in until Super Tuesday out of sheer spite.
That all said, both of them should begin bleeding supporters.
I think that Mike Huckabee really needed to get 15% of the vote of NH to keep up momentum. As it is he seems to be coming in about 5,000 ahead of Giuliani, a man who didn’t even campaign in NH. That’s only 2% better. By the time South Carolina comes around his star should have fallen some.
Giuliani is in a tough spot. I know it’s all according to his plan, but I’m not sure of the wisdom of said plan. His support is eroding and will continue to erode until Florida.
All of that should bear well for Thompson in South Carolina.
Vote Fred Thompson.
http://www.fred08.com/
4 C Stanley
January 9, 2008 @ 12:26 pm CETMichigan has certainly become more important- seems like Mitt’s fate rests there.
And here’s an interesting thought- what if Mitt takes Michigan and then Thompson takes SC? Wouldn’t that favor Giuliani since none of the others will have established ‘big Mo?’ Perhaps Giuliani will be vindicated for choosing his electoral count strategy afterall (I hope not, and I’m not at all sure of it, but I wonder- esp if the other candidates keep splitting up the spoils in the early states.)
5 Michael van der Galien
January 9, 2008 @ 12:55 pm CETChristine: i believe it’s wide open. He’s now in fourth place in Florida, and his strategy is dependent on a good showing there.
Michigan is indeed important for Romney, but he’s in second place in Florida. If he wins there, he’s the leader of the pack with regards to delegates.
Oef: I’ve got a post coming up in an hour, let me summarize it. I’m not going to predict anything, it’s still wide open, four people could win it, and if Thompson wins in south carolina we’ve got FIVE people who can in theory win.
6 C Stanley
January 9, 2008 @ 1:13 pm CETI haven’t kept up with the FL polls and what you say makes sense- on the other hand though, it seems early to predict how FL will go based on the current polls anyway. A lot could still change there, don’t you think? But yes, if Romney holds on in MI and then wins FL, that would certainly revive his campaign and perhaps even lead to a coalescence behind him.
7 Tully
January 9, 2008 @ 6:20 pm CETNote how old that Michigan poll is. Don’t put much faith in it–the Michigan polling has been all over the map.
Romney needs some positive results, and soon, or he’s going to go into Super Tuesday looking like a has-been. Giuliani needs to take Florida to shore up his likely sweeps in some of the big-delegate states. Huckabee may get a big boost out of SC, but nationally he’s gonna fade without some major mojo, by alienating the fiscal cons. McCain needs to show very strong in Michigan and South Carolina. Thompson has to steal votes back from Huckabee in SC, or he can pretty much toss it in.
Obama needs to be VERY competitive in Michigan and Nevada, win SC, and contend in Florida if he expects to challenge Hillary. All the other Dems are just playing for convention chips at this point–delegates to trade for perks and powers.