New Hampshire Debates

January 6th, 2008 By: marc moore | Tags:

As always I watched tonight’s presidential debates with great interest.  Here is my high-level review of the event.

It was great to see Ron Paul on stage with the other heavy-hitter Republican candidates.  There’s no question that he deserves to be there based on his support among voters.  This even as Fox News is foolishly sticking to its censorship of Paul even though the N.H. GOP renounced its sponsorship of that debate because of Fox’s stubborn stance.

That said, Paul did not particularly impress me tonight.  At times he made his points concisely but was too often passive and his responses were short on specifics and incomplete.  He did not take the opportunity to shine in this debate, unfortunately, perhaps because his speaking skills were insufficient to compete with the other candidates.

John McCain did well, I thought, appearing relaxed, confident, and healthy (his age is an important consideration).  He more than held his own on all points and was, at first, cuttingly humorous in jabbing Mitt Romney over his position changes.  McCain didn’t know when to quit, however, and make himself look childish by continuing to push that button.

Romney did by far the most talking, something that all of the candidates seemed to simply let happen.  In fact, he talked himself out of any remaining possibility of getting my vote in the primary with his constant preening to the camera.  Worse, he went on and on with his naive insistence that the 12 million (other sources say 15-20M) illegal aliens residing in the U.S. must be deported as part of fixing the immigration system.  Correct in principle, but it’s a fantasy and not a position that can be taken seriously.  Points to Romney for trying to keep the debate positive, however.

Fred Thompson’s answers to the questions he was asked were good.  When he got on a roll Thompson showed solid conservative credentials and made me wish he was a more vigorous candidate.  Unfortunately, he did little to assert himself tonight something he needs rather desperately to do.

Similarly, Mike Huckabee, fresh from his win in Iowa, seemed to hang back from the fray.  I did think that he came off well (he knew that picking at Romney’s flip-flop wounds was a one-timer, for instance) and made some good points.  But Huckabee was too-often vague in regard to specific policies as compared to the other candidates.  Perhaps it was a conscious decision not to take unnecessary risks after the big win on Thursday.  Since he’s my candidate, I hope that’s the case.

Arguably Rudy Guiliani gave the best performance.  His answers were clear, concise, and delivered with confidence and he appeared to be the most natural leader of the group.

In the post-debate wrap-up ABC showed a poll indicating that a vast majority of voters were most interested in hearing more about the economy.  Little time was spent on that issue during the Republican debate and the only Republican candidate to score points on that issue was Ron Paul.  However, I think his message was unclear tonight and, frankly, would not have been understood by Joe Sixpack, even had he been watching the debates instead of the NFL.

On the Democratic side, all of the candidates were relaxed and poised and the discussion, even at its most vigorous, was quite civil, Bill Richardson’s comments not withstanding.

John Edwards impressed me more than I thought he would.  More than just a high-dollar haircut, Edwards was passionate, precise, and gracious.  I disagree with virtually everything that comes out of his mouth with regard to fiscal and social policy but I thought he performed well even so. 

Barack Obama was better and has more to offer the country than Edwards’ “soak-the-rich with gasoline and set them on fire” approach to rabble-rousing.  I still think he’s the wrong man at the wrong time for this country but I understand his appeal.  If he was a fiscal conservative I could see myself falling under his spell.  But alas…

Bill Richardson was evidently there to campaign for vice-president and did a nice job of cozying up to Hillary.

Speaking of Ms. Clinton, I think she won the debate on the Democratic side.  Soft in the beginning, she responded brilliantly when Edwards and Obama tried to gang up on her by hammering her 1-2 on the issue of being too much the establishment candidate.  Unlike previous outings Hillary responded forcefully and for thirty seconds showed the toughness she would need to be president.  While not as an eloquent a speaker as Obama, she certainly held her own and made her case as the candidate with the most experience seem strong. 

Indeed, she succeeded in looking more experienced than she actually is and established herself as the senior statesman among the 3 Democrats.

Interestingly, the point that experts believe that there is a 30% chance that there will be a nuclear attack carried out by terrorists on American soil within 10 years was impressed upon the Democrats who, to a (wo)man, still insist on pulling American troops out of Iraq.

This significant probability isn’t a secret.  But even so I imagine that quite a few Americans heard it for the first time tonight. 

This can only play in the Republicans’ favor as they are the party of the military and defense.  Democrats call this a culture of fear and paranoia.  I disagree.  A 30% chance of New York going up in flames is something to concerned about.  Just because Rudy and crew are paranoid doesn’t mean that someone’s not out to get us.

Others:

John Hawkins

Chris Cillizza

Jonathan Martin

Noam Scheiber

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  1. Linda
    January 6th, 2008 at 08:17
    Reply | Quote | #1

    I honestly think all the Rep. Candidates acted rather "school boyish" except Ron Paul.  I believe McCain’s comment to Ron Paul as he left the debate was really shameful.  I, for one, am getting dissapointed in all the Republicans Candidates, except one.

  2. Will
    January 6th, 2008 at 08:24
    Reply | Quote | #2

    Good write-up. Similar to what you observed about your own feelings towards Obama, I believe that he has a chance of really garnering some bipartisan support and cooperation as a potential president. However - I would very much like to see where the "30% chance of a nuclear attack" came from. I was definitely surprised when that quote came up - and I would urge caution in taking it at face value. Even if such a thing were to be true, a well-thought out strategy that looks at the bigger picture (instead of ‘hit them with a big stick in case they hit us with a big stick) will be wiser.

  3. redfish
    January 6th, 2008 at 08:41
    Reply | Quote | #3

    I think several analyses of the Democratic debate are missing that Hillary is really the one who started the fight with her rivals; where Edwards joined in with Obama just to defend him. Of course, one could say thats fair, because Hillary doesn’t want to let this "change" message go uncontested. But she came off like an old goat who sounded like she was questioning how these upstart candidates could even think about running and challenging her. Not that I don’t think Edwards or Obama are a little empty, but it must be an insult to many of their supporters, as she’s not really an alternative to them, but part of the problem. I think the debates were an overall loss for her.

    On the Republican side, I think just as equally people are missing that McCain’s attacks on Romney looked as if they were done defensively, because it looked like McCain was angry Romney was misrepresenting what he did. Add to that however, pretty ugly ads McCain is running on TV, and the fact that most Republicans disagree with him on immigration which make his arguments moot.  It doesn’t help McCain, but it does hurt Romney, because his faults as "the conservative candidate" are being exposed. As Ed Rollins said "everybody hates Romney"

  4. ChrisWWW
    January 6th, 2008 at 08:55
    Reply | Quote | #4

    Interestingly, the point that experts believe that there is a 30% chance that there will be a nuclear attack carried out by terrorists on American soil within 10 years was impressed upon the Democrats who, to a (wo)man, still insist on pulling American troops out of Iraq.

    Is this what is known as a non sequitur?

    This can only play in the Republicans’ favor as they are the party of the military and defense. Democrats call this a culture of fear and paranoia. I disagree. A 30% chance of New York going up in flames is something to concerned about. Just because Rudy and crew are paranoid doesn’t mean that someone’s not out to get us.

    You realize that Americans (according to polling) trust the Democrats more on security and on other defense issues like the Iraq war? This issue only helps the Republicans if they make a solid case for what will make us safer.  Rudy’s constant reptition of "offense" makes little sense in a complex world where *gasp* terrorists can bomb Iraq, Afghanistan and the U.S.A. at the same time. So maybe a bit of paranoia is necessary, but it should lead to logical policy decisions, not knee jerk responses like "double Gitmo," and waterboarding and the invasion of Iraq.

    And please, can we quit with the Edwards haircut nonsense?  When’s the last time you mentioned Romney’s $300 makeup consulting and whatnot?
    ======
    My own thoughts, quickly:
    1) Romney impressed me tonight.  He gave thoughtful answers and seems to have a clear grasp of actual policy.  His points about healthcare blew the rest of the field out of the water.
    2) Huckabee was barely there (although speaking well, without much substance) while Thompson just repeated Republican free market mantras
    3) Rudy makes sense when he isn’t talking about terrorism and 9/11 and Iraq.  He does seem thoughtful about domestic politics, it’s too bad he sold out to the extreme right wing
    4) Paul came out ahead everytime someone tried to attack him, both Thompson, McCain and Rudy looked petty with their shots at the doctor

    5) Edwards came across very well, I agree with Marc.  But the more I listen to him, the less I see a substantive difference between him and Obama.  Anyways, I would like to see an Obama/Edwards ticket in November
    6) Clinton came across tired and defeated (maybe it has something to do with her huge drop in the polls).  Co-opting the "change" theme is probably not going to work for her.  Everyone knows she does not represent the kind of change that Edwards and Obama offer.
    7) Richardson’s a good guy, but repititive. 

  5. Xel
    January 6th, 2008 at 10:31
    Reply | Quote | #5

    "Is this what is known as a non sequitur?"

    You’ll find the part you quoted in Webster’s if you look up non sequitur. But hey, fear means you have to be agressive and staying in Iraq for the hell of it (emphasis on hell) apparently means you are ready to go the distance, do the deed, walk the line, take a stand and some other useless quip spoken in the timber of Michael Ironside.

    "Co-opting the "change" theme is probably not going to work for her."

    I love to see how quickly the establishment candidate dropped her "pragmatic, sensible and centrist" image.

  6. sashal
    January 6th, 2008 at 13:08
    Reply | Quote | #6

    I think this was the best debate format .
    Many could finally make a real personal distinction between the candidates.
    I think Romney came out as a winner, despite constant attacks on him.
    He was very good at explaining the health care plan, and was clear  and resolute on other issues. He also stayed away from personal attacks.
    Thompson and McCain looked old and tired and did not say much  new at all( McCain I think hurt himself, being  snark and condescending).
    R.Paul was very timid and his foreign policy arguments sounded too shallow.
    Rudy was good, when not attacking Islamo-fascists.
    Huckabee was very vague( may be that was a deliberate tactic)

    And all their rhetoric about supporting the invasion of Iraq and president’s decision in lieu of 9/11 and Islamic terrorism could have been done with one simple question(shame on Gibson):
    "What the hell Iraq had to do with 9/11 and islamo-fascism" But nobody asked that, so they all escaped once again with this lie( even R.Paul did not ask that question)

  7. kreiz
    January 6th, 2008 at 13:22
    Reply | Quote | #7

    First, sashal’s right- the debate format was excellent, as was Gibson as moderator.

    <i>If (Obama) was a fiscal conservative I could see myself falling under his spell.  But alas…</i>   Yep.  I’m a fiscal con and I find myself falling.  He’s left on issues but moderate in tone- a deadly combo- sort of a Reagan-in-reverse.

  8. kreiz
    January 6th, 2008 at 13:24
    Reply | Quote | #8

    Also Mac’s snark & condescension won’t hurt him too much in NH.  Any state with live free or die on its license plates can handle it.

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