McCain and Clinton Lead in New Hampshire
The very latest Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby poll - partially taken after the Iowa caucuses - shows that, although Barack Obama has picked up a couple of points in New Hampshire, he’s still well behind Hillary Clinton and that, although John McCain is still leading Mitt Romney, the latter has closed the gap a bit.
32% of likely Republican caucus goers say they intend to vote for the Senator from Arizona. He’s closely followed by Romney with 30%. This means, indeed, that the gap has become smaller in recent days. Before yesterday, the gap was, lest we forget, 4%. If Romney continues this trend, he’ll have the gap closed by Monday. This means that, although I wrote earlier today that McCain is the favorite in the Granite State, the race there is still wide open and that Romney could very well make a strong comeback there. Don’t forget, if Romney wins, he’s back.
One of the most interesting aspects about the latest results is that McCain is only in the lead because he’s firmly supported by Independents. Romney is doing better among conservatives. “Romney’s edge over McCain among mainline conservatives – the largest voting bloc in the GOP - increased from one to five points.”
Huckabee, meanwhile, is in third position with 10%. That’s not much, indeed, but it’s what he needs and wants to do. He doesn’t have to do much better than that. My guess is that his numbers will improve in the next couple of days. He’s already improving his numbers among those who consider themselves to be “very conservative”: support for him among this group increased from 21% to 28%.
Frankly I find it a bit awkward that Romney’s numbers have gone up after losing in Iowa. It gives one the impression that his ads are either working in NH or that New Hampshire Republicans saw what happened in Iowa and decided that they’d rather have Romney representing them than Huckabee.
Or both.
Clinton’s, meanwhile, still in the lead but her lead too has decreased with 2%. She’s now leading Obama by 4%. Will this trend continue or will Clinton hold on to her lead? It’s getting closer among Democrats as well, but I think it’s safe to say that Clinton’s still the (slight) favorite. And if she wins, she’s back completely. If Obama loses, Hillary’s in trouble, but it’s far from over.
Luckily we can quite easily see whether this is a trend or not, because Zogby will publish a poll every day, until Tuesday.
Come on people in New Hampshire, you don’ want to be like the good people in Iowa, losers. Is’t strange that the Clintons loved the people in Iowa last week, and after the election that she lost, they are now hicks. It’s ok, the Clintons can do and say what they what, because they are the Clintons. Just ask Mr Foster and Mr Parks, O I am sorry the Clintons had them gunned down. So people in New Hampshire be careful how you vote, or the Clinton machine may come after you. I am proud of the people in Iowa, for taking a stand on Hillary.
…and these Clinton poll leading figures are from your @$$?
We knew it wouldn’t be long before CDS returned, what with BDS becoming irrelevant.
Romney’s NH numbers went up because independents can vote in either (but not both) primaries there, and Obama is expected to suck up a lot of the Indie vote that McCain was counting on. It’s not so much that Romney went up as that McCain lost a bit.