Fred Thompson to Drop Out?

Filed under: 2008 elections, Fred Thompson — Michael van der Galien, Editor-in-Chief on January 3, 2008 @ 2:00 pm CET

The Politico has a report up saying that if Fred Thompson doesn’t do well in Iowa, he’ll drop out of the race.

There’s been some speculation about this in the blogosphere, but it seems that the Politico was able to talk to “several Republican officials close to Thompson” who confirmed the rumors.

If he doesn’t do reasonably well in Iowa, he’ll drop out - according to the Politico and these anonymous sources - before January 8 (primary of New Hampshire) . One adviser to Thompson told Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen: “Without a solid third-place finish, there’s no point in going on. It was an honorable race, and he turned out to be a good candidate. The moment had just passed.”

That’s certainly true, of course. If he doesn’t finish third, he might just as well drop out. Having said that, the polls indicate that he could very well come in third today. If he does what he has to do, he might go on to do well in South Carolina.

But, yes, he must do well in Iowa. Of course, third itself isn’t enough. As a Thompson campaign source told the Politico, he has to come in third with more than 15% of the vote. This source also said that if this doesn’t happen, there’s “a strong likelihood” that he’ll drop out within a few days time.

Having said that, I agree with Miss Beth that one gets the impression that American conservatives are slowly getting used to Thompson’s style and that they’re slowly opening up to him. This means that even if he doesn’t come in as a solid third in Iowa, he could still do reasonably well in my opinion in other states, even if that’s contrary to popular opinion and expectations.

If he drops out - and lets face it, if 15% is the minimum target it’s quite likely indeed - he’ll go on to endorse John McCain. One wonders whether this will make much of a difference for McCain, considering that many Fredheads aren’t exactly fond of the Senator from Arizona.

And that, my friends (impersonating McCain here), means that Iowa will play a very significant role - once again - in the nomination process. If Huckabee wins, Romney’s in trouble, if Thompson doesn’t win 15% of the vote he might drop out… if Romney wins he could very well go on to win the nomination… Yes my friends, today is the day!

Kinda… because there are many more D-Days coming up.

Meanwhile, I asked the Thompson campaign for a reaction. Hopefully I’ll hear something back.

Via Ed Morrissey comes the following: Fred Thompson reacts that it “is absolutely made up out of whole cloth.” He added that it’s probably a rival campaign that’s spreading the rumor.

Here’s the vid of Thompson denying the allegations (via Hot Air):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KeAoJuwSsuE

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3 Comments »

1 jhugg

January 3, 2008 @ 3:28 pm CET

My conservative friends, this is another attempt by the mainstream media (i.e. the Politico) to try to draw support away from Fred the day of the Iowa caucus. My personal hope is that he does not drop but fights to the bitter end. I think Iowa will be a springboard for his campaign. A true conservative, as Fred is, will never garner much support in states like Iowa or New Hampshire. South Carolina has proven in years past that it is less and less a conservative state. Thompson’s main support will come on "Super Tuesday." Let me address one other issue! For years and years, conservatives have prayed for a "true" conservative. A true conservative is a conservative on all the issues, not just a few of the issues (i.e. all the other Republican candidates). For the first time since the late ’80s, we have one, Fred Thompson. As expected, the mainstream media and liberal Democratic machine has attacked him with their usual vehemence. Yet, the same conservative voters who have bemoaned the lack of a suitable conservative candidate have bought into the "he’s lazy", "he’s not eloquent", and "he doesn’t want to be president" garbage that the two groups above have been feeding to the American people. Likewise, conservative radio talk show hosts (i.e. Rush, Mark Levin, etc.) have not come out strongly to support him. I understand they have to be careful about who they publicly endorse. However, we’ve been waiting for a true conservative and we finally have one. We may not get another such candidate for another 20 years. I can understand these conservatives not wanting to openly endorse candidates with conservatives viewpoints (i.e. George W. Bush, Romney, Huckabee, etc.) who are not true conservatives. But, this election is different. All the crying and whining for a true conservative is over. All the prayers for a man who will not succumb to the modern definition of conservatism have been answered in Fred Thompson! My question is, why are my conservative friends not supporting him openly and loudly? This is our chance to back a candidate that is what we have all been waiting for. Stand up, be heard, and combat the erroneous concept of Thompson that is being portrayed to our nation. Because in the end, there is only one candidate who is running for president for the single reason of serving the American people and his name is Fred Thompson!!

2 Tully

January 3, 2008 @ 3:55 pm CET

I frankly think that’s a crock.

Iowa does not matter nearly as much as some would have us believe. The major benefit of finishing well in Iowa is the infusion of campaign donations that results. There’s no real reason for Thompson to drop unless he fails to show strongly in later races, unless he chooses to throw an endorsement to another candidate and angle for a VP slot or some convention chips. Iowa just isn’t that important, and Thompson’s support is strongest in the south. He’s unlikely to drop out before Super Tuesday unless he shows REALLY poorly in South Carolina, and then it would be to angle to support someone else’s campaign.

Let’s take the 2000 elections as an example of Iowa as a predicter. Bush won the Iowa caucus with 41%, and the runners-up order was Forbes 30%, Keyes 14%, Bauer 8%, and McCain 4%. So, quick, without peeking, Bush swept New Hampshire, right? After all, McCain barely registered in Iowa….

Heh. WRONG. McCain took New Hampshire (a primary much more representative of mainstream trends) by 49% to Bush’s 31%, with the rest of the field picking up the crumbs, and only Forbes breaking double digits (13%). Not until Bush won South Carolina did McCain start to fade.

How about 1992 instead? Heh, again. Harkin swept Iowa, and Paul Tsongas took New Hampshire, becoming the presumptive frontrunner. Clinton didn’t become a truly serious contender until he took Illinois (with a lot of help from the Rodham family connections).

Bottom line: Iowa is fun to watch, but doesn’t mean all that much.