National Poll: Hillary and Huckabee in the Lead
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows that Governor Mike Huckabee is now the most popular Republican candidate (among likely Republican Primary voters) nationally, while Senator Hillary Clinton continues to lead among Democrats… by far.
20% of Republican primary voters say they support Huckabee, against 18% who say Rudy Giuliani and 14% who say John McCain. Mitt Romney is in fourth place nationally with 13%. Fred Thompson completes the top five with 11%. Ron Paul is the only other Republican candidate with a reasonably significant amount of support nationally with 5%.
The poll is, of course, good news for Huckabee, but it’s also good news for Romney and John McCain. He’s now only 4% behind Giuliani nationally: something no one would’ve expected only 2 months ago. It’s one of the many reasons why, according to Robert Novak, Republican insiders believe that McCain is in the best position to win the Republican nomination.
Also good news for Romney? Why yes, the gap with the most popular Republican - now Huckabee - is decreasing constantly. Not only that, the difference between himself and McCain can be ignored: they’re practically tied. And the gap with Giuliani has become so small, only 5% now, that he should be able to close it once he wins one or two states that hold their primaries early in the season.
He’s focusing on the early states, not on America as a whole. Once he starts winning, however, he’ll be catapulted into the lead nationally as well.
(Image to the right: Senator John McCain)
And yes, the same goes for McCain of course. If he finishes fourth or third in Iowa, and a close second in New Hampshire (or first), he’ll rise in the national polls immediately, probably overtaking Giuliani.
Not only that, if he does well in the Granite State, he could also do very well - perhaps even win - in both Michigan and South Carolina. What happens if McCain wins in at least one of those states? He’ll rise even more in the national polls.
And he’s got one great advantage over both Romney and Huckabee: people know him. In fact, they know everything they need to know about him. This is the man who almost beat George W. Bush in 2000.
As said, the poll is also great news for Huckabee, for two reasons:
1. He has left Giuliani behind and is now the national frontrunner
2. It shows that support for him has solidified. I read on some blogs that people believe that Huckabee will fall way back (to where he came from). I don’t believe that for one second. This poll confirms my hunch: Republican voters have had all the time they need to look at his record. A very big part of American conservatives have done so… and they like what they see. There’s no way that Huckabee will fall way back, especially not if he does well in Iowa. And don’t forget: if he wins in Iowa, he could also do well in South Carolina and some polls have him in the lead in Florida at this point in time as well.
The Democratic field is much less fluid, nationally at least. Clinton is the most popular Democrat with 39% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters saying they’ll vote for her, against 24% who say Barack Obama, and 16% who plan to vote for John Edwards.
What does this mean? The nomination is still Hillary Clinton’s to lose.
edited by mvdg. no need for conspiracy theories.
The most interesting thing about reading analysis from commentators in other countries is how they view our party nominating system. The US political parties use a decentralized, state-based nominating system that emphasizes performance in early states as well as fund-raising ability to finance the campaign into later contests. So while some candidates are doing well nationally in polls, they do not have the finances to get beyond the early races unless they perform smashingly in those early races.
Watch for those candidates who have had recent larges jumps in fundraising as the ones who have the most momentum and can really make an impact.
Once the final votes are cast in Iowa and NH people will realize how unreliable these poll numbers are. For GOP nominees they only poll those who voted Republican during the last election and only those who have landlines. While this may not seem unusual, it is important to keep in mind the enormous support base that Ron Paul has garnered among disenfranchised Republicans who didn’t vote the last time. It also ignores the youngsters who never voted before this year (Ron Paul seems to have th lions share of young people). And there are many like myself who have changed their party affiliation to support Ron Paul. Please hear his speeched on youtube. Vote Ron Paul and save the country from this huge mess.
I’m thinking game theory, and as such, the current GOP Pack represents a huge quandry. If the Pack (not the Rat Pack) continues with major candidates garnering between 10-20% of the vote, there’s little incentive for any single Pack member to drop out. Why would Thompson, for example, quit if he’s within reasonable striking distance of the leaders? For that matter, why would/should anyone drop out? But until someone drops out, it’s unlikely that there will be a breakaway candidate. So the Pack will remain in place.
Huckabee or Giuliani. Precisely the two guys I don’t even want to be considered as candidates in the first place. In my eyes the GOP loses a lot of credibility and respect for not making this a battle between McCain and Romney, much like the DNC is playing a coward’s game by sticking to Clinton and the pragmatic, cut-corner and lazy past she represents.
Edwards is poised to take the lead as the alternative to Hillary.
Hillary and Obama are experiments who the democrtats need to give up.
Edwards is The Man.
Only white males have ever been nominees, or presidents.
First - who cares if they’re white or male?
Second - Please do - let Edwards be the nominee - and watch a flood flow to the GOP nominee.
There’s a long standing pattern that shows that the republican who wins two out of three of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina wins the nomination. Huckabee’s arrival on this years primary scene has been a "Godsend" ( pardon the expression ) to republican values voters who have longed for a genuine, consistent and talented candidate that we could support. Huckabee is all that we could ask for and more and it is looking very much like he will win two of those three critical early states. It’s going to be a GREAT general election!
Someone at Rasmussen needs to check their math:
100 - 19 - 17 - 15 - 13 - 12 - 7 = 17% remaining
That doesnt sound like 95% confidence to me, and yet another reason that a survey of 600-650 "likely" voters nationwide is completely unreliable.
I believe that he could indeed do well in the Republican nomination, but do you think he can win in the general election? I don’t.
Wow, this is really starting to get interesting. I suspect that unless the "establishment" GOP coalesces around a frontrunner so that they have 40+ % on that one candidate, Ron Paul will come in and steal all the thunder and ultimately the nomination. Those who have been paying even the slightest attention know the polls for Paul under-represent his support. The question is by how much. I don’t think there’s any doubt his support nationally is solidly into double digits, perhaps even 20% or higher. If in Iowa and NH he places in the top 3 in each (which appears increasingly likely), and no candidate wins both, I say Ron Paul may well run away with this thing.
People, I’d like to inform everyone of something. Elections are still a year off. Trying to understand aspects of politics is like trying to understand electrical enginering while drunk. Republicans and Democrats alike will say that their opponents in the primary have different veiws than themselves. But yet they still share a politcal party. Let us not forget that George Washington himself disapproved of politcal parties. And Republicans used to be radicals as well. Bottom line: Politics are incredibly unpredictable. But I think McCain and Obama or Edwards will probably be the ones to make it through. Hillary is just too controversial, her own age group doesn’t identify with her. Huckabee and Romney are left dirty from all the mudslinging and Giuliani? Since when does being a jump from mayor to president become normal. Plus, check the fianacial records from the time he was in office. they tell an interesting story. But bottom BOTTOM! Line is that politics are more complicated than the most intricate clock and what the average man thinks should happen is not always reality.