The Best Opinion Piece on the NIE
If you’re going to read just one opinion on the latest National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, read this one by Dennis Ross. Because it should be read in its entirity, I’m not summarizing it, except to cite his final paragraph:
Sadly, it’s now easier for Iran to proceed unimpeded with its nuclear plans. It is far less likely to face the economic (or potentially military) pressures that in 2003 might have persuaded those in the Iranian leadership that the costs of developing their nuclear capabilities were too high. Who in the Iranian elite will argue that or oppose Ahmadinejad’s approach to nukes now? No doubt, that is not what the authors of the NIE sought, but here poor statecraft has trumped our improved efforts at spycraft.










From the Onion:
Chris, it’s the one percent doctrine all over again, ain’t it.
As for this article; weaponizing isn’t particularly difficult or expensive? Tell that to North Korea, who with posession of plutonium for decades, nuclear weapon plans courtesy of Dr. A.Q. Khan, an economy devoted almost entirely to its military it still couldn’t produce a definitive experimental nuclear explosion.
Poppycock. This article is nothing much more than whinging over blueballs.
Iran, signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Act, fully compliant subject of inspections by the Internation Atomic Energy Association and (save for the possibly inflammatory rhetoric of a powerless figurehead) demonstrated rational state actor, gets to proceed with its nuclear program unimpeded now that it is found it has been telling the truth for four years? Call me crazy but I can think of much, much greater threats to world peace.
uh…when did they sign the NPT?
KS - Iran signed and doesn’t have nukes; Israel, India and Pakistan didn’t sign and they all have nukes.
JS - The Norks had Pu for a decade, not plural. For all their work and money spent, while the population starves, only could produce a fizzle. Tell the US, USSR and other original nuclear countries that a a-bomb program isn’t cheap.
http://www.brookings.edu/projects/archive/nucweapons/manhattan.aspx
http://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/nuke/intro.htm