GOP Candidates Inspire… Just About No One?

Filed under: 2008 elections, Feature, Polls — Michael van der Galien, Editor-in-Chief on December 11, 2007 @ 7:00 pm CET

The New York Times reports that the Republican candidates have a hard time energizing the base: “Republican voters across the country appear uninspired by their field of presidential candidates, with a vast majority saying they have not made a final decision about whom to support, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.”

Worse still, “[n]one of the Republican candidates is viewed favorably by even half the Republican electorate, the poll found.”

Democrats, on the other hand, are generally quite pleased with their candidates and are “more settled in their decisions.”

Although Clinton is having a hard time in Iowa and New Hampshire she’s still doing great nationally. “Even after what her aides acknowledge have been two of the roughest months of her candidacy, she is viewed by Democrats as a far more electable presidential nominee than either Senator Barack Obama or John Edwards,” the poll found.

Back to the Republicans: “Mr. Giuliani is viewed favorably most frequently, and that is by only 41 percent. Senator John McCain is viewed favorably by 37 percent, and Mr. Romney by 36 percent. Mr. Huckabee is viewed favorably by 30 percent.” This is a real problem for the former Governor of Arkansas because it suggests “that he may be vulnerable to the kind of attacks that his opponents have already been mounting against him.”

76% of Republicans say that they might still change their minds with regards to whom they’ll vote for in the primaries. Only 23% say that their choice will not change.

Among Democrats, the fields is much less fluid: “59 percent say they may change their minds, as against 40 percent who say they have made their decision.”

The poll makes clear that the Republican candidates have some serious problems:

- they will have trouble energizing the base for the primaries, let alone for the general elections

- if Republicans aren’t very fond of their candidate - whomever it will be - it’s difficult to image that other voters will think favorably about them

- Huckabee is surging in the polls, but he could very well fall back: if the attacks stick, he has a problem

- the field is so fluid that the Republican candidates basically don’t know who their main competitors are: it could change every day

The only hope for the Republican leaders? That Republican voters will rally behind the Republican candidate, no matter who he is. If Clinton wins the Democratic nomination that’ll happen, if Obama - however - wins the nomination, well, it will be much more difficult for Republicans to energize the base.

A big hat tip to James Joyner for the image. More at Oliver Willis‘ place and Talk Left.

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1 C Stanley

December 11, 2007 @ 7:09 pm CET

he poll makes clear that the Republican candidates have some serious problems:- they will have trouble energizing the base for the primaries, let alone for the general elections

If Hillary is the Dem candidate, the base will be energized albeit in a negative way.

Disagree strongly here- one of the main reasons that Republicans aren’t fond of the potential candidates is that they aren’t conservative enough in one way or another- so these are actually reasons that the candidate might have more appeal to independents and Democrats than would a ‘true conservative’ candidate who would be more to the liking of conservative Republicans.

We’ll see, but so far the attacks seem to be helping rather than hurting. He seems to have that teflon characteristic which makes attacks have more backlash on the attacker than negative effect on him- probably because he’s so affable that people want to believe him.

This part I agree with, and it must be difficult for the campaign strategists. Hopefully it is keeping the negativity down though- since they don’t know who they should attack!

2 Interested

December 11, 2007 @ 7:50 pm CET

76% of Republicans say that they might still change their minds with regards to whom they’ll vote for in the primaries. Only 23% say that their choice will not change.

Among Democrats, the fields is much less fluid: “59 percent say they may change their minds, as against 40 percent who say they have made their decision.”

Never figured why they had this question - for it is irrelevant. If all of a sudden Chris Dodd became Democrat nominee - you can bet your bottom dollar that a large portion of that 40% will change to reflect the new candidate.

pretty accurate, which is good and bad. It’s bad because it isn’t a field of very attractive candidates. But good because competition is good.