Captain Ed passes on the report that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’ magnanimity in defeat may have been a sham to cover up his unsuccessful attempt to steal the referendum.

Chavez’ acquiescence to electoral defeat came as a surprise to many observers in light of his clear attempts in advance of the referendum to intimidate and bully dissenters and thus lay the groundwork for not only stealing the election, but also for a follow-on crackdown. Nonetheless, not even calling dissenters “traitors” was enough to silence Chavez’ cheering section, many of whom cited his acceptance of defeat as proof of Chavez’ democratic bona fides and the superiority of his regime to that horrible dictatorship found in the United States.

It now appears, however, that his support for democracy may have only been “plan B”, forced on Chavez by his own military after he made moves to dictate the “correct” result — another sweeping mandate for Hugo. This humiliation foreshadows a showdown between Chavez and his own military:

Look for Hugo to try other means next. His first target will be the military. He will have to find some way to diminish the military command to reduce their threat to his regime, so expect some show trials and mass purges in the next couple of years. Once he has reduced the military threat to his regime, the next vote will go Hugo’s way, regardless of the will of the Venezuelan electorate.

I predict, however, that Chavez may find the military a tougher nut to crack than his previous opponents. It is easy to use paramilitary thugs to beat up and murder dissenters on the street, but much harder to project dictatorial power onto a military base. The Venezuelan military is not likely to be wooed by Chavez’ brand of warmed-over Castroist ideology or his vision of an isolated Venezuela that serves as a global symbol of anti-Americanism. Without some clear case to make that casts the military as even more corrupt and dictatorial than Chavez himself, Hugo may find that it is much easier to shut down opposing media than to trump the generals.

It is worth remembering that Chavez himself built his reputation on his previous stature as a military officer prone to coups. And as the history of “democratizing militaries” has shown, the idea of the military that stands as a bulwark protecting underlying democratic principles is not as oxymoronic as it may first sound. Chavez may, in fact, be hoist by his own petard.