Straws in the Wind?

Filed under: Iran, Iraq — Marc Schulman on November 18, 2007 @ 6:06 am CET

The following makes me wonder whether some kind of quid pro quo has been reached between the U.S. and Iran. If so, is it in any way related to the U.S. position on the Iranian nuclear program and is it a signal that Washington and Tehran may soon be (or already are) negotiating?

From the New York Times:

The Iraqi government on Saturday credited Iran with helping to rein in Shiite militias and stemming the flow of weapons into Iraq, helping to improve the security situation noticeably.

The Iraqi government’s spokesman, Ali al-Dabbagh, speaking at a lunch for reporters, also said that the Shiite-dominated government was making renewed efforts to bring back Sunni Arab ministers who have been boycotting the government for more than four months.

Speaking about Iran, he said that that government had helped to persuade the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr to ask his Mahdi militia to halt attacks. Mr. Sadr ordered his militia to stop using weapons in early September, and officials say that the militia’s relative restraint has helped improve stability. They say it also seems to have helped decrease the frequency of attacks with explosively formed penetrators, a powerful type of bomb that can pierce heavy armor.

Mr. Dabbagh’s comments echoed those of the American military here, who in recent days have gone out of their way to publicly acknowledge Iran’s role in helping to slow the flow of weapons into the country. [My emphasis]

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1 wj

November 18, 2007 @ 9:26 am CET

I really hope that this is accurate, and that some kind of discussions are going on. But I have a bad feeling, because I remember the last time.

The Iranians, you may recall, were very helpful in getting things settled down in Afghanistan after we went in there. “Very professional” was the description used by US diplomats to describe their Iranian counterparts.

And their reward for this assistance? A few weeks later Iran got grouped with Iraq and North Korea in Bush’s “axis of evil.” Makes me think I should definitely wait to count these chickens until they are not only hatched, but full grown.

2 rudi666

November 18, 2007 @ 4:34 pm CET

I’m siding with WJ and guessing that this is just the latest “spin” from US military spokesmen. Sadr is the convienant (sp)bogeyman, what about DAWA and SCIRI(Hakim)?

ALISSA J. RUBIN is probably writing from a cubicle in NYC, she ain’t no John Burns.
I’m wrong on Rubin:

In August of 2007, Rubin was named deputy bureau chief in the Baghdad bureau of The New York Times.

But the Burns statement still stands.

3 wj

November 18, 2007 @ 7:02 pm CET

Just to be clear, I am not suggesting that this is “just spin” from the US military. I am, in fact, assuming that it is an accurate assessment. (I may be wrong, of course. But that’s what I am assuming in my post.)

No, what I am concerned about is that an attempt by Iran to be helpful, and to open up some non-hostile interaction with the US, will be greeted by the Bush administration with another kick in the teeth. I certainly have no brief for the Iranian government. But compared to some of our nominal allies (e.g. the current Pakistani government) they have actually looked relatively supportive on a couple of fronts. Why are we not at least trying to work with these people?

4 Kevin Sullivan

November 19, 2007 @ 1:12 am CET

There is a very distinct strand of survivalism throughout the Iranian mullahocracy. Not just in Afghanistan, but recall the hostage crisis, Iran-Contra, etc.

khomeini absolutely hated the West, but he and Rafsanjani both knew that they would need our help to keep pushing against Saddam.

I do hope that this can continue to be a bridiging mechanism, however we must keep Iran’s regional motives in mind. It doesn’t favor them to have a chaotic Iran next door to them any more than it did to have a chaotic Afghanistan next to them. These are all pragmatic measures of survival, and we mustn’t confuse them for moderatism, or whatever.

5 Pat

November 19, 2007 @ 2:18 am CET

Anybody wanna bet that inside of 20 years we’ll be selling them the lastest version of the F-22 or some variant coming out in the future?

Between the mistakes made in regard to our foreign policies to the fact or idea that Iran fancies itself as the “Empire of the Middle East” regaining past glories of Sardis et. al. I certainly would wait until the chickens are fully grown! Hope the troops keep lookin’ over their shoulders!