A Self-Evident Truth?

Filed under: Democrats, Iraq — Marc Schulman on November 16, 2007 @ 12:15 am CET

In today’s Washington Post, John Podesta, Lawrence J. Korb and Brian Katulis make this claim:

Rather than push for a realistic end to U.S. engagement, the Bush administration claims doomsday scenarios would become reality if a phased U.S. withdrawal began. Iraq, it says, would become a terrorist sanctuary, incite regional war or be the scene of sectarian genocide. These arguments are as faulty as those that led us into Iraq, and progressive leaders must push back.

Do the authors present a counter-argument to the Bush Administration’s “faulty” arguments? No. Not a word. For them, it is self-evidently true that Iraq would not become a terrorist sanctuary, would not incite regional war, and would not be the scene of sectarian genocide. Unlike Podesta, Korb, and Katulis, I lay no claim to perfect foresight. The only thing I do know is that these events are possibilities. To rule them out is demagoguery.

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19 Comments »

  1. 1 Pat

    November 16, 2007 @ 12:31 am CET

    Obviously someone forgot what the Lady Ambassador to Iraq said to Saddam Hussien in 1989-90! That was “The U.S. won’t get involved in intra-arab affairs.”

    Too funny, so he went and attacked Kuwait! (Me, I think he got set up!) But to the current debate, how could anyone believe that all hell wouldn’t break loose if we just up and left? I find this the height of stupidity. I didn’t agree with going into Iraq, but now that we are there, we’d better resolve to clean up our mess as best we can, and it can be done with the necessary commitment to getting it done.

  2. 2 Chris

    November 16, 2007 @ 1:40 am CET

    I’ll rewrite it for them:

    Rather than push for a realistic end to U.S. engagement, the Bush administration claims doomsday scenarios would become reality if a phased U.S. withdrawal began. Iraq, it says, would become a terrorist sanctuary, incite regional war or be the scene of sectarian genocide. Keep in mind that the people making these arguments have been 100% wrong for nearly five years and progressive leaders must push back.

  3. 3 Interested

    November 16, 2007 @ 1:51 am CET

    where’s your counter argument Chris

  4. 4 Chris

    November 16, 2007 @ 2:42 am CET

    Interested,
    Turkey is striking northern Iraq. < — Regional war [X]

    There are tons of terrorists there when there were little-none before <– terrorist sanctuary [X]

    Entire neighborhoods have been cleansed and the country is reorganizing itself along sectarian lines <– sectarian genocide [X]

    Our military presence there hasn’t prevented these things from happening. What’s the value in staying?

  5. 5 Pat

    November 16, 2007 @ 3:35 am CET

    Chris

    Sorry, gotta be a smartass here, yeah big mistakes have been made, they are being rectified.

    Turkey has patrolled into northern Iraq probably since before you were born for the same reason.

    “Tons of Terrorists” is an interesting way to put it, yes it did become a magnet for like minded radicals from all over the world. As a way of collecting garbage it worked pretty well, probably wasn’t entirely considered an objective, but it happened, we gotta move on!

    Sectarian genocide you say, another use of a politically sensitive term which doesn’t help. Are you aware that after we threw Saddam out of Kuwait, this very same thing happened (admittecly to a lesser extent) in Kuwait City! Folks settled grudges, pure plain and simple. They do that over there! (And they did it in New Orleans after Katrina too!)

    The value in staying and continuing the fight is so that it doesn’t happen again! Not to mention, it is OUR responsibility as a society and nation to see the problem through. If you have a problem with this, then you should be for stopping all assistance to Israel as well, because this inflames passions in the Middle East too!

  6. 6 Chris

    November 16, 2007 @ 5:43 am CET

    If you have a problem with this, then you should be for stopping all assistance to Israel as well

    I’m for that. Our money should going to help people in need, not just people that buy our weapons.

  7. 7 Michael van der Galiën

    November 16, 2007 @ 11:42 am CET

    LOL Pat: You don’t seem to realize that Chris isn’t… a friend of Israel, shall we say?

    For what its worth Chris: you don’t answer most arguments.

  8. 8 Chris

    November 16, 2007 @ 5:25 pm CET

    Michael,
    You just don’t like the way I answer arguments. Also, I’d like to hear your rationalization for the immense aid the U.S. gives to the wealthy nation of Israel.

  9. 9 Tully

    November 16, 2007 @ 5:36 pm CET

    You just don’t like the way I answer arguments.

    Because mostly you DON’T answer arguments, you change the subject or divert into irrelevance or attempt to assert your personal subjective opinions as established facts.

  10. 10 Interested

    November 16, 2007 @ 5:40 pm CET

    we also get much of the money we give to Israel back in the form of they purchase our goods. Unlike a large percentage of foreign aid recipients that spend it elsewhere.

  11. 11 rudi666

    November 17, 2007 @ 1:14 am CET

    Interested - I think your wrong on that one, like with China we have a negative trade balance with Israel.
    http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5081.html#2007

    Trade with Israel : 2007
    NOTE: All figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.
    Month Exports Imports Balance
    January 2007 938.4 1,613.2 -674.8
    February 2007 997.2 1,437.7 -440.5
    March 2007 1,124.5 1,823.5 -699.0
    April 2007 847.6 1,396.4 -548.8
    May 2007 1,097.9 2,191.7 -1,093.8
    June 2007 1,062.3 1,716.4 -654.0
    July 2007 1,347.3 1,826.1 -478.8
    August 2007 1,219.5 1,628.8 -409.3
    September 2007 906.8 1,509.0 -602.1
    TOTAL 9,541.6 15,142.8 -5,601.2

    http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2007

    Trade with China : 2007
    NOTE: All figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.
    Month Exports Imports Balance
    January 2007 4,364.2 25,635.0 -21,270.9
    February 2007 4,630.7 23,064.5 -18,433.8
    March 2007 5,479.4 22,725.4 -17,246.1
    April 2007 4,849.4 24,222.9 -19,373.5
    May 2007 5,322.7 25,338.4 -20,015.7
    June 2007 5,900.1 27,061.1 -21,161.0
    July 2007 4,779.2 28,583.4 -23,804.2
    August 2007 5,904.6 28,431.4 -22,526.8
    September 2007 5,610.5 29,375.3 -23,764.8
    TOTAL 46,840.7 234,437.6 -187,596.9

    Add on top of that our aid and the negative balance is bigger.

  12. 12 Interested

    November 17, 2007 @ 1:20 am CET

    Umm that’s trade balance Rudi

    that is not foreign aid - and further does not split out Loans versus aid, and within aid - economic vs military.

  13. 13 Interested

    November 17, 2007 @ 1:21 am CET

    ok, first one got caught by the spam filter.

    Stastics are great - if they pertain to the issue at hand.

    You are quoting trade balances, which is not aid, and does not split out the various types of aid.

  14. 14 rudi666

    November 17, 2007 @ 1:22 am CET

    Don’t we just love statistics!!
    ;-(

  15. 15 Interested

    November 17, 2007 @ 1:23 am CET

    ha, or maybe it didn’t. time was off though - go figure that one.

  16. 16 rudi666

    November 17, 2007 @ 2:01 am CET

    Inter - Care to look at the numbers with Egypt. The totals are positive, I do believe that Egypt still buys stripped down M1A2’s and fighters. I wonder if Israel buys tanks or planes anymore? I wonder if they paid GDLS or Northrop when they reverse engineered(like Iran) the defense products they bought at one time?

    http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c7290.html#2007

    Trade with Egypt : 2007
    NOTE: All figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.
    Month Exports Imports Balance
    January 2007 354.9 177.5 177.4

    TOTAL 3,773.0 1,946.8 1,826.1

  17. 17 Interested

    November 17, 2007 @ 2:40 am CET

    your still on trade balances - it is not an apples to apples comparision by any means.

    Foreign aid is not trade balance. Even if it did include the foreign aid given (which would not include loans) the amounts would be far beyond the aid amounts themselves in either country for either imports or exports.

  18. 18 Tom

    November 17, 2007 @ 3:28 am CET

    Not a real post, just a test to see if my avatar shows up.

  19. 19 Tom

    November 17, 2007 @ 3:31 am CET

    Let’s try again

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