The New York Times reports:

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan took a strong public stance against a military incursion into northern Iraq on Tuesday, in an indication that he would not back the military’s request for a major offensive.

For weeks, the Turkish Army has been pushing for a broad military response to attacks by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, a militant separatist group that takes refuge in northern Iraq. The military has already increased its presence along the border and has been conducting operations against the militants in Turkey. On Tuesday, Mr. Erdogan said Turkey should first continue to fight the militants on Turkish soil before fighting them in Iraq, slowing the movement toward an incursion. He said far more militants were in Turkey than in Iraq.

The Turkish Parliament would need to approve a major military action, and Mr. Erdogan’s party controls the legislature, so his view on the wisdom of an invasion is important.

Ten years ago, I would have commented that the military might consider staging a soon very soon. Times, however, have changed. That being said, Erdogan still has to be very careful. The military already spoke out publicly against him and his party, if he challenges the powerful Turkish military more, the military might decide to act regardless of the reaction of the international community (and of the Turkish people).

Times have changed, but not so much that the military is willing to accept a prime minister (and in July perhaps a president, namely Abdullah Gül) who opposes secularism, who is considered to be an enemy of the army, and who lets soldiers be killed by the PKK.

The US can now think that the problem will go away, but doing so would be a major mistake. The US and the Kurds have to deal with the PKK-problem.