It is becoming more and more likely that Turkey will actively fight the PKK in northern Iraq:

The idea of launching a military operation into northern Iraq, where thousands of members of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) have found a safe haven, has taken center stage in recent debates over how to eliminate the terrorist threat, the worst manifestations of which the Turkish public has dealt with in recent days.

The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) has long been seeking the right to stage an incursion into northern Iraq to eliminate the PKK presence there with Chief of General Staff Gen. Yaşar Büyükanıt publicly asking the government for approval last month to launch such a military operation.

The government’s response to this call has been heard directly from the prime minister, who said the government would back the military if the generals seek to stage such an incursion to fight the PKK…

“We would do whatever is necessary for the peace and happiness of our country. It is out of the question for us to fall into a disagreement with our security forces and soldiers on this issue,” Erdoğan told private ATV when asked what his government would do if the military sought permission to stage a cross-border operation.

“When necessary, this step would be taken, there would be no delay,” Erdoğan said. Although it was not yet clear whether the military has formally relayed its demand to the government for a vote in Parliament, Foreign Ministry spokesman Levent Bilman on Thursday told reporters that he had no knowledge concerning the drawing up of a government motion. Bilman’s expla-nation came when asked at a weekly press briefing whether Turkey might stage a military incursion into northern Iraq without having Parliament’s approval and whether there has been any preparation at ministry head-quarters for a government motion.

The question is not whether such an operation would be morally right: it’s completely defendable. Iraq’s government has the responsibility to remove the threat the PKK poses to Turkey. Turkish soldiers die on a daily basis. Yesterday, the PKK killed six Turkish soldiers in southeastern Anatolia.

We do have to wonder what the impact of a Turkish military operation against the PKK on Northern Iraq and Iraq as a whole will be. There are, essentially, two possible scenarios: the Kurds will understand why Turkey attacks and will accept it. The second scenario: the Kurds will not find it acceptable, they will support the PKK and will attack Turkish forces wherever and whenever possible / give money to the PKK to do so. In the latter scenario, northern Iraq will destabalize. At this moment, ‘Kurdistan’ is Iraq’s most stable region. If Turkey attacks, it is very well possible that Kurdistan will, like the rest of Iraq, become a mess.